Modeling spread of waterborne disease in networks through STEM

Author(s):  
Pranav Unni ◽  
Pradyuta Padmanabhan
Keyword(s):  

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Andersson

In Sweden 63 waterborne outbreaks occurred during the last 10 years. Even if these outbreaks include smaller family incidents, at least 10 community outbreaks involved more than 1,000 victims each, the largest being in the city of Boden in 1988. This outbreak hit 41% of the population with gastrointestinal symptoms and was preceded by the distribution of virtually untreated, fecally contaminated river water due to a transitory absence of chlorination.



1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Benton ◽  
G. I. Forbes ◽  
G. M. Paterson ◽  
J. C. M. Sharp ◽  
T. S. Wilson

A review of the incidence of waterborne disease in Scotland from 1945 to 1987 has been undertaken in conjunction with the Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit and the Scottish Home and Health Department. Primarily, these relate to contamination of private and public supplies by microbiological and chemical agents, but incidents in which water such as river water was ingested deliberately or accidentally were included. Water-related infections such as legionellosis and leptospirosis which are acquired by non-alimentary routes have been excluded. During the period of the review there were 57 outbreaks of water-borne disease comprising of over 15,305 cases of illness. A total of 18 outbreaks occurred in public supplies and 21 in private supplies. Microbiological contamination gave rise to the greatest number of cases of water-borne disease which were caused by viral gastroenteritis and shigellosis followed by outbreaks of gastroenteritis of unknown aetiology. The highest number of outbreaks were due to chemical poisoning,caused mainly by lead and copper, followed by outbreaks of gastroenteritis of unknown aetiology. The type of deficiency giving rise to incidents of waterborne disease were described for private and public water supplies. In public supplies the need for hygenic storage of water in distribution and effective catchment control practices in conjunction with adequate water treatment facilities is emphasised. In private supplies the need to, at minimum, apply rudimentary disinfection to untreated source water is highlighted by the large numbers of people who have been affected by water-borne disease.



2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 634-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Murphy ◽  
K. D. M. Pintar ◽  
E. A. McBean ◽  
M. K. Thomas

The true incidence of endemic acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) attributable to drinking water in Canada is unknown. Using a systematic review framework, the literature was evaluated to identify methods used to attribute AGI to drinking water. Several strategies have been suggested or applied to quantify AGI attributable to drinking water at a national level. These vary from simple point estimates, to quantitative microbial risk assessment, to Monte Carlo simulations, which rely on assumptions and epidemiological data from the literature. Using two methods proposed by researchers in the USA, this paper compares the current approaches and key assumptions. Knowledge gaps are identified to inform future waterborne disease attribution estimates. To improve future estimates, there is a need for robust epidemiological studies that quantify the health risks associated with small, private water systems, groundwater systems and the influence of distribution system intrusions on risk. Quantification of the occurrence of enteric pathogens in water supplies, particularly for groundwater, is needed. In addition, there are unanswered questions regarding the susceptibility of vulnerable sub-populations to these pathogens and the influence of extreme weather events (precipitation) on AGI-related health risks. National centralized data to quantify the proportions of the population served by different water sources, by treatment level, source water quality, and the condition of the distribution system infrastructure, are needed.



2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 167-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate M. Thomas ◽  
Dominique F. Charron ◽  
David Waltner-Toews ◽  
Corinne Schuster ◽  
Abdel R. Maarouf ◽  
...  


2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (S2) ◽  
pp. 201-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Messner ◽  
Susan Shaw ◽  
Stig Regli ◽  
Ken Rotert ◽  
Valerie Blank ◽  
...  

In this paper, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) presents an approach and a national estimate of drinking water related endemic acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) that uses information from epidemiologic studies. There have been a limited number of epidemiologic studies that have measured waterborne disease occurrence in the United States. For this analysis, we assume that certain unknown incidence of AGI in each public drinking water system is due to drinking water and that a statistical distribution of the different incidence rates for the population served by each system can be estimated to inform a mean national estimate of AGI illness due to drinking water. Data from public water systems suggest that the incidence rate of AGI due to drinking water may vary by several orders of magnitude. In addition, data from epidemiologic studies show AGI incidence due to drinking water ranging from essentially none (or less than the study detection level) to a rate of 0.26 cases per person-year. Considering these two perspectives collectively, and associated uncertainties, EPA has developed an analytical approach and model for generating a national estimate of annual AGI illness due to drinking water. EPA developed a national estimate of waterborne disease to address, in part, the 1996 Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments. The national estimate uses best available science, but also recognizes gaps in the data to support some of the model assumptions and uncertainties in the estimate. Based on the model presented, EPA estimates a mean incidence of AGI attributable to drinking water of 0.06 cases per year (with a 95% credible interval of 0.02–0.12). The mean estimate represents approximately 8.5% of cases of AGI illness due to all causes among the population served by community water systems. The estimated incidence translates to 16.4 million cases/year among the same population. The estimate illustrates the potential usefulness and challenges of the approach, and provides a focus for discussions of data needs and future study designs. Areas of major uncertainty that currently limit the usefulness of the approach are discussed in the context of the estimate analysis.



2020 ◽  
pp. 123-128
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Qadir ◽  
Azra Yasmeen
Keyword(s):  


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