Performance of probabilistic disturbance forecasts in extreme weather on the Icelandic power system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Perkin ◽  
Arnbjorg Arnardottir ◽  
Kjartan Sigurjonsson ◽  
Torvaldur Jacobsen
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Extreme Weather

scholarly journals Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 5089
Author(s):  
Efthymios Karangelos ◽  
Samuel Perkin ◽  
Louis Wehenkel
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Component Failure ◽  
Dependent Component ◽  
System Operator ◽  
System Resilience ◽  
Service Disruption ◽  
Power System Resilience ◽  
Do So

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing power system resilience, motivated by the extreme weather storm experienced in Iceland in December 2019. The methodology is built on the basis of models and data available to the Icelandic transmission system operator in anticipation of the said storm. We study resilience in terms of the ability of the system to contain further service disruption, while potentially operating with reduced component availability due to the storm impact. To do so, we develop a Monte Carlo assessment framework combining weather-dependent component failure probabilities, enumerated through historical failure rate data and forecasted wind-speed data, with a bi-level attacker-defender optimization model for vulnerability identification. Our findings suggest that the ability of the Icelandic power system to contain service disruption moderately reduces with the storm-induced potential reduction of its available components. In other words, and as also validated in practice, the system is indeed resilient.

scholarly journals Power System Resilience to Extreme Weather: Fragility Modeling, Probabilistic Impact Assessment, and Adaptation Measures

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 3747-3757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathaios Panteli ◽  
Cassandra Pickering ◽  
Sean Wilkinson ◽  
Richard Dawson ◽  
Pierluigi Mancarella
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
System Resilience ◽  
Power System Resilience

The Influence of External Climate Environment on Safe Operation of Power System

2014 ◽  
Vol 521 ◽  
pp. 423-428
Author(s):  
Ling Ling Pan ◽  
Feng Li ◽  
Sheng Chun Yang ◽  
Shu Hai Feng ◽  
Yong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power System ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Electric Power Industry ◽  
Power Industry ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Frequency and severity of some extreme weather events are increasing, and weather can impact the power system and its components in a number of ways. This paper identifies key technical issues facing the electric power industry, related to global climate change. The technical challenges arise from: 1) impacts on supply and demand balance; 2) impacts on system operating strategies, and power generation scheduling; 3) impacts on power grid structure, and power infrastructure response to extreme weather events; and 4) impacts on operation parameters of power system. The objective of this paper is to facilitate continued discussion of power systemclimate change interactions. To this end, this paper identifies key issues relating to the interactions between the electric power industry and global climate change. These issues will not be resolved quickly, and it requires sustained attention if they are to be resolved successfully.

Stochastic Optimal Dispatch of Power System under Extreme Weather Disaster

2010 ◽  
Vol 37-38 ◽  
pp. 1219-1222
Author(s):  
Yong Xi Zhang ◽  
Hong Ming Yang ◽  
Zhao Yang Dong ◽  
Ming Yong Lai
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Power Network ◽  
Optimal Dispatch ◽  
Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Full Consideration

Several large scale failures of power system took place due to extreme weather disaster recent years, which aroused the consideration of power network security operation. Considering that the line failure events caused by natural disaster presented random characteristic, using Poisson distribution theory to depict the probability of line failure, a stochastic power system optimal dispatch model based on chance constraints theory was also proposed. We adopted the Differential Evolution algorithm to calculate the total loss based on Monte-Carlo simulation. The results of IEEE 9-bus case study imply that the dispatch model will give full consideration of weather effects, and provide a more reasonable dispatch plan for power system disaster prevention and reduction.

scholarly journals Analysis and Visualization of Natural Threats Against the Security of Electricity Transmission System

2017 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Huang ◽  
R. Pi ◽  
E. Bompard ◽  
F. Profumo ◽  
P. Cuccia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Transmission System ◽  
Electricity Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Electricity is one of the crucial energies of modern society, but it is greatly threatened by various kinds of menaces, especially natural hazards. Although they rarely happen, their occurrence may hugely affect the operation of power system. In this paper, we firstly, according the impact on power systems, classify natural threats into two categories (natural disasters and extreme weather conditions) and several subcategories (geological, hydrological, meteorological and climatological). Then the changes in natural threats to power systems and their trends during recent decades are discussed, along with a review of events that pose natural threats to the power system. Finally, the georeferenced model based on the Italy transmission system for natural threats analysis is presented.

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