230 Background: Sustained virological response (SVR) has been associated with decreased morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Data are sparse, however, about the long-term benefits of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in terms of risk reduction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We estimate the impact of SVR on the HCC incidence in the DAA era when SVR is achieved nearly universally even in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Methods: We constructed a Markovian model of 50-year-old patients with compensated HCV cirrhosis (n=1,000) to model the incidence of HCC over 20-years of follow-up. We compared 2 cohorts: 1) SVR following DAA therapy and 2) no SVR (natural history). In the latter, HCC would develop at an annual rate of 4.2% and patients would die as a result of end stage liver disease (ESLD) according to their MELD (=6 at baseline). In the former, MELD score would not increase, the HCC risk would decrease and, in some patients, cirrhosis would regress. Results: The table summarizes the 20-year outcome in the two cohorts. In the cohort without SVR, HCC would occur in 33% and 63% would die of ESLD. In the SVR cohort, the proportion of HCC would increase to 37% as the number of subjects at HCC risk would increase, as a result of a dramatic reduction in deaths from ESLD. In the univariate sensitivity analyses, the cumulative HCC incidence was mainly influenced by the rate at which the risk of HCC is decreased after SVR, followed by the change in cirrhosis regression rate. Conclusions: Although HCC risk would decrease after SVR in a given individual patient with cirrhosis, on the population level, highly effective DAA therapy may lead to a paradoxical increase in the burden of HCC. These data underscore the important of (1) HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis even after SVR and (2) DAA intervention before cirrhosis develops. [Table: see text]
The impact of direct-acting antiviral agents on liver and kidney transplant costs and outcomes
