Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Illing ◽  
Sebastian Watzka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

scholarly journals Taxes and the Structure of Production

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Block
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Structure Of Production

Abstract In Austrian theory, the business cycle is caused by expansive monetary policy, which artificially lowers the interest rate below equilibrium rates, necessarily lengthening the structure of production. Can tax alterations also cause an Austrian business cycle? Only if they affect time preference rates, the determinant of the shape of the Hayekian triangle. It is the contention of this paper that changes in taxes possibly can (but need not) impact time preference rates. Thus there may be a causal relation between fiscal policy and the business cycle, but this is not a necessary connection, as there is between monetary policy and the business cycle. This is contentious, since some Austrians argue that there is a praxeological link between tax policy and time preference rates.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

scholarly journals INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Etty Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Monetary Policy Coordination ◽  
The Business Cycle

The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.

Italy’s Economic Policy in the Age of the Euro

1999 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-189
Author(s):  
Salvatore Zecchini
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Social Resistance ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract Italy’s participation in the EMU entails majors shifts in its economic policy approach, involving the full spectrum of policy domains, and not just the monetary area alone. The author presents an overview of the main changes, highlighting a number of critical issues that have emerged. Italy’s need for higher growth over the business cycle can hardly be met through a unified monetary policy that is attuned to the requirements of the larger and more developed part of the Eurozone. Extensive constraints stemming from EMU on fiscal policy and other adjustment tools leave die country no choice but to press ahead with far-reaching reforms of its structures and markets. But progress in this direction is hampered by social resistance and inadequate mechanisms to ease adjustment costs. Under these conditions, the partial policy co-ordination stemming from EMU raises for Italy problems of sustainability over the longer term, especially in prolonged phases of stagnation or recession.

scholarly journals Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 43-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvana Tenreyro ◽  
Gregory Thwaites
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Resource Utilization ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that contractionary policy shocks are more powerful than expansionary shocks, but contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms. So this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding. (JEL E21, E22, E32, E52)

Zur Rolle der Geldpolitik im Konjunkturzyklus / On the Role of Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle

1999 ◽  
Vol 218 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Holstein
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Europäische Zentralbank

ZusammenfassungMit dem Beitritt zur Europäischen Währungsunion geben die Mitgliedsländer (und ihre Zentralbanken) die Souveränität in geldpolitischen Fragen an die Europäische Zentralbank ab. Die Geldpolitik scheidet somit als Instrument der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik aus. Wenn ihr jedoch eine wichtige Rolle im Konjunkturzyklus (z. B. bei der Überwindung einer Rezession) zukommt, so kann die Vereinheitlichung der Geldpolitik zu negativen Auswirkungen auf die konjunkturelle Entwicklung der Mitgliedsländer führen, sofern diese nicht hinreichend synchron verläuft. In diesem Aufsatz wird zunächst untersucht, wie stark der Konjunkturzusammenhang zwischen den vier europäischen G7-Ländern ist. Anschließend wird der Einfluß der Geldpolitik auf die Entwicklung der kurzfristigen Zinssätze analysiert, um schließlich mittels einer VAR-Analyse Aufschluß über die realen Effekte der Geldpolitik zu erhalten.

scholarly journals Cyclical Fluctuation, Growth, and Stabilization: An Empirical Investigation of Dual Policy Objectives in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sakil Ahmmed ◽  
◽  
Jonaed Jonaed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.

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