scholarly journals INTENSITAS PERDAGANGAN DAN KESELARASAN SIKLUS BISNIS DI ASEAN-4 DAN UNI EROPA *

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Etty Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Monetary Policy Coordination ◽  
The Business Cycle

The main objective of this research is to empirically analyze how the business cycle of ASEAN-4 (namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines) economies are influenced by increased trade with European Union especially Netherland and Germany. Increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to be patterned in either direction, towards convergence or divergence. We used regression and vectorautoregression (VAR) methods for this research. Regression methods is based panel data whereas VAR is based on the time series analysis. There are four variables, which are business cycle, trade intensity, fiscal policy coordination and monetary policy coordination. This research conclude that trade intensity and monetary policy coordination are the major channel though which the business cycles of ASEAN-4 economies become synchronized. This has important implications for the formation of a currency union.

Optimum Currency Area Theory and Business Cycle Convergence in EMU

2016 ◽  
pp. 67-91
Author(s):  
Emin Ertürk ◽  
Derya Yılmaz ◽  
Işın Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Times ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Over Time

Which countries should be in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)? This question has been debated frequently in the aftermath of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. But this has been asked in every stages of European integration. This discussion has rooted in the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. The theory simply reveals that; if the countries have similar business cycles, one size fits all monetary policy would able to address the problems of member countries. Otherwise, no single monetary policy could be able to satisfy all members. In this respect, we test the business cycle convergence in EMU12 countries over time and we have also analyzed the effects of crisis on this convergence. We have found that business cycles converged over time in these countries. This convergence rises in the times of crisis as they slump together after the shock, but falls sharply in the aftermath of the crisis. This reflects the divergent recovery paths of the countries and put a pressure on single monetary policy especially after crisis.

Fiscal Multipliers and Their Relevance in a Currency Union – A Survey

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Illing ◽  
Sebastian Watzka
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a currency union and its implications for the euro crisis.

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bankarstvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-20
Author(s):  
Dragan Jović
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Great Part ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Discretionary Monetary Policy ◽  
New Instruments

By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the Euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries' degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.

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