The case history of an embankment built over soft water-treatment sludge is presented. To assure that the sludge would consolidate and gain strength as predicted, a test embankment was built. The observed performance of the test embankment was compared with the predicted performance to verify and modify design assumptions. The results were used to design and construct the full-scale embankment. The finite element method and the critical state model were used to predict the performances of the test embankment and the full-scale embankment. Bayesian updating and system identification were used to update the material properties used in the prediction for the test embankment. The updated properties were then used to update the prediction for the test embankment and to predict the performance of the full-scale embankment. These predictions were compared with the observed performances to evaluate the accuracies of the predictions with different input data. Efforts were made to identify factors that cause differences between predicted and measured performances.Key words: Bayesian updating, consolidation, finite-element prediction, shear strength, stability, water-treatment sludge.
