Abstract. A multi-model ensemble of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model
Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations is used to study the atmospheric
oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition over East Asia under
climate and emission changes projected for the future. Both dry and wet
NOy deposition show significant decreases in the 2100s under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, primarily due to large anthropogenic emission reduction
over both land and sea. However, in the near future of the 2030s, both dry
and wet NOy deposition increase significantly due to
continued increase in emissions. Marine primary production from both dry and
wet NOy deposition increases by 19 %–34 % in the
2030s and decreases by 34 %–63 % in the 2100s over the East China
Sea. The individual effect of climate or emission changes on dry and wet
NOy deposition is also investigated. The impact of climate
change on dry NOy deposition is relatively minor, but the
effect on wet deposition, primarily caused by changes in precipitation, is
much higher. For example, over the East China Sea, wet NOy
deposition increases significantly in summer due to climate change by the end
of this century under RCP8.5, which may subsequently enhance marine primary
production. Over the coastal seas of China, as the transport of
NOy from land becomes weaker due to the decrease in
anthropogenic emissions, the effect of ship emissions and lightning emissions
becomes more important. On average, the seasonal mean contribution of ship
emissions to total NOy deposition is projected to be
enhanced by 24 %–48 % and 3 %–37 % over the Yellow Sea and
East China Sea, respectively, by the end of this century. Therefore,
continued control of both anthropogenic emissions over land and ship
emissions may reduce NOy deposition to the Chinese coastal
seas.
Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches