scholarly journals Quantum-based Decision Making Under Uncertainty in the Presence of Entanglement for the Development of Optimal Strategies in Engineering Design

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Papageorgiou ◽  
Eleni-Eleftheria Kamperi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Dual Nature ◽  
Quantum Probabilities ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Operational Tool

The work presented concerns the development of a quantum-based decision making model utilised in the identification of optimal strategies in engineering design under uncertainty in a quantum-like entangled decision making, assessing intention interference. Several experiments and decision making paradoxes have manifested the deficiency of rationality assumption employed by classical decision making theory, with humans often violating the hypotheses of the expected utility theory and Game Theory by making irrational choices. Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) is the basis of the proposed decision making model, since only this theory can be employed to develop an operational tool in any social interplay, given the preferences of the individuals/players, to assess the quantum probabilities of their strategies. The decision makers’ brain is assumed of a dual nature, with brain processes divided to conscious and subconscious constituent parts and the computed quantum strategic probabilities consisted of two parts, the first one being rationality related and the other one capturing biases, emotions and feelings. Hence, given a priori the preferences of the decision makers, this model can be utilised as an operational tool for decision making under uncertainty in the presence of entanglement assessing the quantum probabilities of the players’ strategies in any engineering design. This quantum-based decision making model, identifying the optimal strategic choices of the stakeholders involved, is employed in the presented conceptual design of an Unmanned Air System (UAS), based on both the stakeholders’ rationality, personal intuitive feelings and behavioural biases.

scholarly journals A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Wang ◽  
Haitao Xiong ◽  
Chengrui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Location Selection ◽  
Logistics Center ◽  
Multicriteria Decision ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Center Location ◽  
Decision Making Model

As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.

Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making Method for Preference Conflicting with Heterogeneous Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Rong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Heterogeneous Information ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Relative Closeness ◽  
Decision Making Model

The aim of this article is to propose a multi-objective decision-making method for researching and solving multi-attribute heterogeneous group decision-making problems. This is in the case that the characters of the decision information and decision makers' preferences are heterogeneous, and the weight information is incomplete. In this method, the multi-objective decision-making model, which considers the alternatives decision relative closeness and the preference of heterogeneous degree of decision makers in the objective function, is put forward. In addition, this article uses the minimax method to derive the multi-objective decision-making model and obtain the attribute weights and decision makers weights, and then the optimal scheme is established. Finally, an illustrative example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF COGNITIVE AND EMOTIONAL BIASES ON THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS: A LITERATURE REVIEW

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tekin Bilgehan ◽  
Gor Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Emotional Process ◽  
The Capital Structure

Each decision-making process is an important cognitive and emotional process which is open to the emotional effect. Individuals make a decision about a future uncertainty either to feel good or maximizing gain by minimizing the loss ratio. Recently, researches in finance have criticized that the capital structure decisions and firms’ funding and strategic choices deviate from the traditional neoclassical paradigm. Furthermore there is a nascent empirical literature that has exposed interesting evidence of the effects of managerial behavioral biases. Managers’ decisions, that to create the capital structure, have a vital importance for the company. The behavioral finance (BF) approach may be revealed useful results in the process of solving decision-makers’ behaviors and thoughts. In this context the purpose of this study is to reveal if the managers are affected by their behavioral characteristics in the process of the financing decision-making, based on the findings of studies in the literature. From this point of view behavioral finance literature, which is about the financing and capital structure decisions, is investigated. As a result, theoretical and empirical analyses, which discussed in the literature, show that managers’ biases play an important role in explaining the capital structure choice.

Decision-Making Model for Convention Site Selection

2012 ◽  
Vol 538-541 ◽  
pp. 895-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Chen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
City Image ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process

A number of factors must be considered when selecting a convention site. Typically, most selections are based on the decision makers’ knowledge and experience, which may lead to biased decisions based on the decision makers’ subjective judgment. This study establishes decision-making evaluation factors and attributes for convention site selection based on a literature review. After surveying experts’ opinions using questionnaires, we employed the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to analyze the weighting of the factors and attributes. The results show that of the five evaluation factors, site environment is the most important, followed by meeting and accommodation facilities, local support, extraconference opportunities, and costs. Additionally, the five most important attributes among the 20 evaluation attributes are the suitability of convention facilities, suitability and quality of local infrastructure, climate, city image, and political conflict or terrorist threats.

Constructing a Hierarchy and Simulation Model to Assess Digital Recorder Sensor System

2012 ◽  
Vol 263-266 ◽  
pp. 857-860
Author(s):  
Kuang Jung Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sensor System ◽  
Model Following ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Digital Recorder ◽  
Decision Making Model

This work presents group decision making model, following a university safety evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Importantly, the proposed model can assist university decision makers to buy the feasibility of digital recorder sensor system, making it highly applicable for academic and commercial purposes.

scholarly journals Toward Better Design-Related Decision Making: A Proposal of an Advanced OODA Loop

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 2387-2396
Author(s):  
Mattia Vettorello ◽  
Boris Eisenbart ◽  
Charlie Ranscombe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Divergent Thinking ◽  
Abductive Reasoning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Alternative Strategies ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Lateral Thinking

AbstractTo be successful in innovation, organisations need to be dynamically adaptable to novel situations to avoid getting ‘left behind’. Yet, they face vast uncertainties stemming from unforeseeable technological shifts or future user and market behaviour, making strategic decision-making on innovation an extremely difficult task. Decision-makers thus increasingly try to control or shape the future, rather than foresee it. This includes thinking ahead and generating potential pathways that will make an innovation viable. This captures the essence of designerly ways of thinking in reasoning toward ‘what might be’. Extant literature has been reviewed that discusses alternative strategies how this future-oriented thinking can be applied to become better at selecting novel ideas for development. We observe parallels between divergent thinking, abductive reasoning, analogising and lateral thinking suggested by different authors in this process. The paper continues to propose how these key mechanisms can be embedded within an existing framework for decision-making under uncertainty, the ‘OODA Loop’, which has seen increasing uptake in such decision-making scenarios.

A Decision Model for Selecting the Optimum Oil Production Profile Using Multi Criteria Decision Making and Social Choice Theory

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Keivanpour ◽  
Hassan Haleh ◽  
Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Choice ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Social Choice Theory ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Statistic Model ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Decision Making Model

Applying a MCDM model has many benefits for decision makers in the course of oil field master development plans preparation and evaluation. In this study, a multi-criteria decision making model is proposed in order to achieve an optimum production profile. The most important criteria and parameters for selection of best production profile are identified. These parameters are derived by several interviews with Iranian oil Industry’s experts. The candidate alternatives for production profile are ranked using a combination of group decision making approach and social choice theory. The degree of group consensus is evaluated by using a statistic model to confirm the validity of decision making model.

Group Decision Model Based on Ordered Weighted Distance to Aid Decisions on Logistics

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (02) ◽  
pp. 233-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Leao E Silva Filho ◽  
Danielle Costa Morais
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Weighted Distance ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Decision Making Model

This paper presents a group decision-making model using a distance aggregator based on Ordered Weighted Distance (OWD) which offers a solution that can reduce disagreement between decision makers (DMs). This paper discusses decision rules and sets out measures to evaluate compensatory effects that have a bearing on DMs’ opinions. The model uses formulations of distances to reveal the differences in opinion among DMs and discusses the meanings of distance and the information presented by each DM. Finally, a case study of a logistics problem is used to illustrate how the model is applied.

scholarly journals Advanced Mathematical Business Strategy Formulation Design

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 1642
Author(s):  
Song-Kyoo (Amang) Kim
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Analytical Model ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Matrix Form ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Strategy Formulation

This paper deals with the explicit design of strategy formulations to make the best strategic choices from a conventional matrix form of representing strategic choices. The explicit strategy formulation is an analytical model that is targeted to provide a mathematical strategy framework to find the best moment for strategy shifting to prepare rapid market changes. This theoretical model could be adapted into practically any strategic decision making situation when a strategic formulation is described as a matrix form with quantitative measured decision parameters. Analytically tractable results are obtained by using the fluctuation theory and these results are able to predict the best moments for changing strategies in a matrix form. This research can help strategy decision makers who want to find the optimal moments of shifting present strategies.

A new approach to evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyedeh Elahe Adel Rastkhiz ◽  
Ali Mobini Dehkordi ◽  
Jahangir Yadollahi Farsi ◽  
Adel Azar
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Screening Technique ◽  
Entrepreneurial Opportunities ◽  
Opportunity Evaluation ◽  
Decision Making Model

Purpose In order to answer which opportunities are better to pursue, the purpose of this paper is to propose and empirically test a decision-making model for evaluating and selecting entrepreneurial opportunities. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors identified common evaluation criteria through a systematic review of 45 high quality articles published in top entrepreneurship and management journals between 2000 and 2017. Second, fuzzy screening technique has been employed to offer the decision-making model. Third, the authors used data of six evaluations provided by five experts at a medium-sized biotech firm to test the model. Findings The study shows that common decision criteria for evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities fall into seven categories. According to these criteria and using fuzzy screening technique, a multi-expert multi-criteria decision-making (ME–MCDM) model has been suggested for evaluating and selecting opportunities. Practical implications This model can be served in situations in which decision makers should select a small number of opportunities among the larger set with regard to opportunity profile and minimal information. More opportunities and more decision makers can be included in the model. When the number of opportunities and decision makers are high, it is possible to use programming for fast, accurate and easy calculation. Originality/value This study is the first systematic review of opportunity evaluation criteria. It is also the first considering opportunity evaluation as a multi-expert decision-making process.

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