Conclusion

2019 ◽  
pp. 181-196
Author(s):  
Jenna Jordan
Keyword(s):  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Chain Of Command ◽  
Leadership Decapitation ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy ◽  
Communal Support ◽  
Statistical Results

The book concludes with a discussion of the overall findings and theoretical arguments regarding the efficacy of leadership targeting. It then examines 198 instances of targeting efforts against ISIS leaders. The theory suggests that targeting is not likely to result in the demise or even a significant weakening of ISIS. It is an Islamist organization, bureaucratized, and with considerable amounts of communal support, albeit decentralized and in many cases coerced. Even if Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is captured or killed and the organization undergoes a brief period of disruption, given the group’s hierarchy of authority and chain of command, it should ultimately choose a successor easily and recover quickly. Furthermore, the statistical results regarding the resilience of large and Islamist organization is consistent with ISIS’s resilience. The chapter concludes with policy recommendations regarding the use and impact of leadership decapitation as a counterterrorism policy.

Leadership Decapitation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenna Jordan
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Structure ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Shining Path ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Group Type ◽  
The Face ◽  
Leadership Decapitation ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy ◽  
Communal Support ◽  
Operational Capacity

Does leadership targeting work? This question lies at the heart of studies on the efficacy of counterterrorism policy. This book examines whether killing or arresting terrorists is an effective means by which to weaken and degrade a group’s operational capacity. It aims to identify and explain why decapitation works in some cases and not in others. In order to determine whether decapitation is an effective strategy, this project examines nearly one thousand instances of leadership targeting. A group’s susceptibility to leadership targeting is a function of three factors: organizational structure, communal support, and group type or ideology. Leadership decapitation is unlikely to result in the demise of groups that are highly bureaucratized, have high levels of communal support, or are driven by a religious or separatist ideology. Leaders matter less under these conditions, and their removal can have adverse consequences, such as retaliatory attacks or an overall increase in the frequency of attacks. The data reveals that the largest and oldest organizations are highly resistant to destabilization after targeting. Separatist, religious, and especially Islamist groups are unlikely to weaken after the removal of their leaders. In order to develop counterterrorism policies that will degrade and weaken terrorist organizations, it is essential to identify whether our policies are likely to be effective or to have adverse consequences. The book examines the cases of Hamas, al-Qaeda, Shining Path, and ISIS to understand how organizational structure, local support, and ideology contributes to their resilience in the face of repeated leadership attacks.

Conclusion and Recommendations

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob N. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Agency Theory ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Behavioral Outcomes ◽  
Organizational Outcomes ◽  
Organizational Analysis ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Organizational Challenges ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy

This concluding chapter reviews the evidence, comments on U.S. government counterterrorism policies in light of the agency theory perspective on terrorist organizations, and offers a series of policy recommendations that flow directly from the organizational analysis. One potential criticism of this analysis is that it focuses too heavily on organizational outcomes while ignoring the kinds of behavioral outcomes of greatest interest to policy makers: who gets attacked, when, and by which method. The policy recommendations show this concern to be misplaced by demonstrating how systematically taking terrorists' organizational challenges into account can yield better counterterrorism policy. In particular, there are subtle ways to push groups into adopting security-reducing management practices that will work against some groups, but not all.

Is Leadership Targeting Effective?

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-92
Author(s):  
Jenna Jordan
Keyword(s):  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Organizational Size ◽  
Attack Frequency ◽  
Organizational Survival ◽  
Upper Echelon ◽  
Organizational Activity ◽  
Size Type ◽  
Leadership Decapitation ◽  
The Impact

The chapter begins by looking at trends in leadership targeting. It then examines the impact of decapitation on organizational activity, organizational existence, attack frequency, and organizational survival. The data shows that organizational size, type, and leadership rank all have an impact on the probability that a group will experience a cessation of organizational activity after leadership decapitation. Large, religious, separatist, and Islamist groups are resilient to decapitation efforts and likely to continue carrying out activity. Targeting the top leader as opposed to members of the upper echelon is more likely to result in a cessation of activity, and groups in countries with a larger population are more likely to withstand leadership attacks. The chapter concludes with an overall assessment of the theoretical implications and policy recommendations regarding the efficacy of leadership targeting.

Attacking the Leader, Missing the Mark: Why Terrorist Groups Survive Decapitation Strikes

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenna Jordan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Work ◽  
Organizational Resilience ◽  
Organizational Decline ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Succession Process ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Counterterrorism Policy ◽  
Communal Support ◽  
Critical Resources

Leadership targeting has become a key feature of counterterrorism policy. Both academics and policymakers have argued that the removal of leaders is an effective strategy in combating terrorism. Leadership decapitation is not always successful, however, and existing empirical work does not account for this variability. A theory of organizational resilience explains why decapitation results in the decline of some terrorist organizations and the survival of others. Organizational resilience is dependent on two variables: bureaucratization and communal support. Older and larger organizations tend to develop bureaucratic features, facilitating a clear succession process and increasing their stability and ability to withstand attacks on their leadership. Communal support plays an important role in providing the resources necessary for terrorist groups to function and survive. Religious and separatist groups typically enjoy a high degree of support from the communities in which they operate, and thus access to critical resources. Application of this theoretical model to the case of al-Qaida reveals that Osama bin Laden's death and the subsequent targeting of other high-level al-Qaida operatives are unlikely to produce significant organizational decline.

Statistical results on discovered near-Earth asteroids

1999 ◽  
Vol 173 ◽  
pp. 81-86
Author(s):  
S. Berinde
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Evolution ◽  
Minor Planet ◽  
Orbital Elements ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Near Earth Asteroids ◽  
Statistical Results

AbstractThe first part of this paper gives a recent overview (until July 1st, 1998) of the Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) database stored at Minor Planet Center. Some statistical interpretations point out strong observational biases in the population of discovered NEAs, due to the preferential discoveries, depending on the objects’ distances and sizes. It is known that many newly discovered NEAs have no accurately determinated orbits because of the lack of observations. Consequently, it is hard to speak about future encounters and collisions with the Earth in terms of mutual distances between bodies. Because the dynamical evolution of asteroids’ orbits is less sensitive to the improvement of their orbital elements, we introduced a new subclass of NEAs named Earth-encounter asteroids in order to describe more reliably the potentially dangerous bodies as impactors with the Earth. So, we pay attention at those asteroids having an encounter between their orbits and that of the Earth within 100 years, trying to classify these encounters.

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