A Copula-Based Sampling Method for Data-Driven Prognostics and Health Management

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhimin Xi ◽  
Rong Jing ◽  
Pingfeng Wang ◽  
Chao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Cooling Fans ◽  
On Line

This paper develops a Copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics and health management (PHM). The principal idea is to first build statistical relationship between failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels on the basis of off-line training data sets, then identify possible failure times for on-line testing units based on the constructed statistical model and available on-line testing data. Specifically, three technical components are proposed to implement the methodology. First of all, a generic health index system is proposed to represent the health degradation of engineering systems. Next, a Copula-based modeling is proposed to build statistical relationship between failure time and the time realizations at specified degradation levels. Finally, a sampling approach is proposed to estimate the failure time and remaining useful life (RUL) of on-line testing units. Two case studies, including a bearing system in electric cooling fans and a 2008 IEEE PHM challenge problem, are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

scholarly journals Physics Based Deep Learning Technique for Prognostics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Akkad
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Recognition Performance ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Learning Technique ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is one of the most important aspects of prognostics and health management (PHM). Various deep learning (DL) based techniques have been developed and applied for the purposes of RUL estimation. One limitation of DL is the lack of physical interpretations as they are purely data driven models. Another limitation is the need for an exceedingly large amount of data to arrive at an acceptable pattern recognition performance for the purposes of RUL estimation. This research is aimed to overcome these limitations by developing physics based DL techniques for RUL prediction and validate the method with real run-to-failure datasets. The contribution of the research relies on creating hybrid DL based techniques as well as combining physics based approaches with DL techniques for effective RUL prediction.

scholarly journals Data-driven remaining useful life prediction based on domain adaptation

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e690
Author(s):  
Bin cheng Wen ◽  
Ming qing Xiao ◽  
Xue qi Wang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Jian feng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Test Data ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Domain Adaptation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Target Domain ◽  
Useful Life

As an important part of prognostics and health management, remaining useful life (RUL) prediction can provide users and managers with system life information and improve the reliability of maintenance systems. Data-driven methods are powerful tools for RUL prediction because of their great modeling abilities. However, most current data-driven studies require large amounts of labeled training data and assume that the training data and test data follow similar distributions. In fact, the collected data are often variable due to different equipment operating conditions, fault modes, and noise distributions. As a result, the assumption that the training data and the test data obey the same distribution may not be valid. In response to the above problems, this paper proposes a data-driven framework with domain adaptability using a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BGRU). The framework uses a domain-adversarial neural network (DANN) to implement transfer learning (TL) from the source domain to the target domain, which contains only sensor information. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we analyze the IEEE PHM 2012 Challenge datasets and use them for verification. The experimental results show that the generalization ability of the model is effectively improved through the domain adaptation approach.

Remaining useful life estimation: a review on stochastic process-based approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dangbo Du ◽  
Jianxun Zhang ◽  
Xiaosheng Si ◽  
Changhua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Inverse Gaussian ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Inverse Gaussian Process ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Useful Life

Background: Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is the central mission to the complex systems’ prognostics and health management. During last decades, numbers of developments and applications of the RUL estimation have proliferated. Objective: As one of the most popular approaches, stochastic process-based approach has been widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectories and estimating RULs. This paper aimed at reviewing the latest methods and patents on this topic. Methods: The review is concentrated on four common stochastic processes for degradation modelling and RUL estimation, i.e., Gamma process, Wiener process, inverse Gaussian process and Markov chain. Results: After a briefly review of these four models, we pointed out the pros and cons of them, as well as the improvement direction of each method. Conclusion: For better implementation, the applications of these four approaches on maintenance and decision-making are systematically introduced. Finally, the possible future trends are concluded tentatively.

Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Software System Fault and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rubyet Islam ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Test Beds

Abstract Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will no longer perform as intended. The prediction is often articulated as a Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL is an important decision-making tool for contingency mitigation, i.e., the prediction of an RUL (and its associated confidence) enables decisions to be made about how and when to maintain the system. PHM is generally applied to hardware systems in the electronics and non-electronics application domains. The application of PHM (and RUL) concepts has not been explored for application to software. Today, software (SW) health management is confined to diagnostic assessments that identify problems, whereas prognostic assessment potentially indicates when in the future a problem will become detrimental to the operation of the system. Relevant areas such as SW defect prediction, SW reliability prediction, predictive maintenance of SW, SW degradation, and SW performance prediction, exist, but all represent static models, built upon historical data — none of which can calculate an RUL. This paper addresses the application of PHM concepts to software systems for fault predictions and RUL estimation. Specifically, we wish to address how PHM can be used to make decisions for SW systems such as version update, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance scheduling and abandonment. This paper presents a method to prognostically and continuously predict the RUL of a SW system based on usage parameters (e.g., numbers and categories of releases) and multiple performance parameters (e.g., response time). The model is validated based on actual data (on performance parameters), generated by the test beds versus predicted data, generated by a predictive model. Statistical validation (regression validation) has been carried out as well. The test beds replicate and validate faults, collected from a real application, in a controlled and standard test (staging) environment. A case study based on publicly available data on faults and enhancement requests for the open-source Bugzilla application is presented. This case study demonstrates that PHM concepts can be applied to SW systems and RUL can be calculated to make decisions on software version update or upgrade, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance schedule and total abandonment.

A Stochastic Asset Life Prediction Method for Large Fleet Datasets in Big Data Environment

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behrad Bagheri ◽  
David Siegel ◽  
Wenyu Zhao ◽  
Jay Lee
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Data Environment

Preventing catastrophic failures is the most important task of prognostics and health management approaches in industry where Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction plays a significant role to schedule required preventive actions. Regarding recent advances and trends in data analysis and in Big Data environment, industries with such foreseeing approach are able to maintain their fleet of assets more efficiently with higher assurance. To address this requirement, several physics-based and data-driven methods have been developed to predict the remaining useful life of various engineering systems. In current paper, we present a simple, yet accurate stochastic method for data-driven RUL prediction of complex engineering system. The approach is constructed based on selecting the most significant parameters from raw data by using the improved distance evaluation method as feature selection algorithms. Subsequently, the health value of units is assessed by logistic regression and the assessment output is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the remaining useful life of the desired system. During Monte Carlo iterations, several features are extracted to help filtering less accurate estimations and improve the overall prediction accuracy. The proposed algorithm is validated in two ways. First of all, the accuracy of RUL prediction is measured by applying the method to 2008 PHM data challenge gas-turbine dataset. Subsequently, gradual changes in RUL prediction of a particular test unit are measured to verify the behavior of the algorithm upon availability of additional historical data.

Fault Diagnosis and Prognostic Methods Based on Hybrid System Theory for MEHI Systems in Aircraft

2013 ◽  
Vol 389 ◽  
pp. 550-555
Author(s):  
Zhen Hua Wen ◽  
Jun Xing Hou ◽  
Zhi Qiang Jiang
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Hybrid Systems ◽  
Hybrid System ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Fusion Method ◽  
Technical Approach

Health management is the primary technical approach to ensure the safety and reliablity in aircraft. The degradation process of Mechanical Electrical and Hydraulic Integration (MEHI) systems have the characteristics of the hybrid system. In this paper, we firstly review the research on the hybrid systems in recent years, then based on the hybrid system theory , present the fault diagnosis and prediction for MEHI system in aircraft. Lastly proposes a fusion method for predicting the failure time based on the data-driven and system physical characteristics.

scholarly journals Prognostics and Health Management in Nuclear Power Plants: An Updated Method-Centric Review With Special Focus on Data-Driven Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingang Zhao ◽  
Junyung Kim ◽  
Kyle Warns ◽  
Xinyan Wang ◽  
Pradeep Ramuhalli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Power Plants ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Term Operation

In a carbon-constrained world, future uses of nuclear power technologies can contribute to climate change mitigation as the installed electricity generating capacity and range of applications could be much greater and more diverse than with the current plants. To preserve the nuclear industry competitiveness in the global energy market, prognostics and health management (PHM) of plant assets is expected to be important for supporting and sustaining improvements in the economics associated with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) while maintaining their high availability. Of interest are long-term operation of the legacy fleet to 80 years through subsequent license renewals and economic operation of new builds of either light water reactors or advanced reactor designs. Recent advances in data-driven analysis methods—largely represented by those in artificial intelligence and machine learning—have enhanced applications ranging from robust anomaly detection to automated control and autonomous operation of complex systems. The NPP equipment PHM is one area where the application of these algorithmic advances can significantly improve the ability to perform asset management. This paper provides an updated method-centric review of the full PHM suite in NPPs focusing on data-driven methods and advances since the last major survey article was published in 2015. The main approaches and the state of practice are described, including those for the tasks of data acquisition, condition monitoring, diagnostics, prognostics, and planning and decision-making. Research advances in non-nuclear power applications are also included to assess findings that may be applicable to the nuclear industry, along with the opportunities and challenges when adapting these developments to NPPs. Finally, this paper identifies key research needs in regard to data availability and quality, verification and validation, and uncertainty quantification.

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