Remaining useful life estimation: a review on stochastic process-based approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dangbo Du ◽  
Jianxun Zhang ◽  
Xiaosheng Si ◽  
Changhua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Inverse Gaussian ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Inverse Gaussian Process ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Useful Life

Background: Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is the central mission to the complex systems’ prognostics and health management. During last decades, numbers of developments and applications of the RUL estimation have proliferated. Objective: As one of the most popular approaches, stochastic process-based approach has been widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectories and estimating RULs. This paper aimed at reviewing the latest methods and patents on this topic. Methods: The review is concentrated on four common stochastic processes for degradation modelling and RUL estimation, i.e., Gamma process, Wiener process, inverse Gaussian process and Markov chain. Results: After a briefly review of these four models, we pointed out the pros and cons of them, as well as the improvement direction of each method. Conclusion: For better implementation, the applications of these four approaches on maintenance and decision-making are systematically introduced. Finally, the possible future trends are concluded tentatively.

Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Software System Fault and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rubyet Islam ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Test Beds

Abstract Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will no longer perform as intended. The prediction is often articulated as a Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL is an important decision-making tool for contingency mitigation, i.e., the prediction of an RUL (and its associated confidence) enables decisions to be made about how and when to maintain the system. PHM is generally applied to hardware systems in the electronics and non-electronics application domains. The application of PHM (and RUL) concepts has not been explored for application to software. Today, software (SW) health management is confined to diagnostic assessments that identify problems, whereas prognostic assessment potentially indicates when in the future a problem will become detrimental to the operation of the system. Relevant areas such as SW defect prediction, SW reliability prediction, predictive maintenance of SW, SW degradation, and SW performance prediction, exist, but all represent static models, built upon historical data — none of which can calculate an RUL. This paper addresses the application of PHM concepts to software systems for fault predictions and RUL estimation. Specifically, we wish to address how PHM can be used to make decisions for SW systems such as version update, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance scheduling and abandonment. This paper presents a method to prognostically and continuously predict the RUL of a SW system based on usage parameters (e.g., numbers and categories of releases) and multiple performance parameters (e.g., response time). The model is validated based on actual data (on performance parameters), generated by the test beds versus predicted data, generated by a predictive model. Statistical validation (regression validation) has been carried out as well. The test beds replicate and validate faults, collected from a real application, in a controlled and standard test (staging) environment. A case study based on publicly available data on faults and enhancement requests for the open-source Bugzilla application is presented. This case study demonstrates that PHM concepts can be applied to SW systems and RUL can be calculated to make decisions on software version update or upgrade, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance schedule and total abandonment.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines Using a Joint Deep Learning Model Based on TCNN and Transformer

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Hai-Kun Wang ◽  
Yi Cheng ◽  
Ke Song
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Aircraft Engines ◽  
Key Technology ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Deep Learning Model

The remaining useful life estimation is a key technology in prognostics and health management (PHM) systems for a new generation of aircraft engines. With the increase in massive monitoring data, it brings new opportunities to improve the prediction from the perspective of deep learning. Therefore, we propose a novel joint deep learning architecture that is composed of two main parts: the transformer encoder, which uses scaled dot-product attention to extract dependencies across distances in time series, and the temporal convolution neural network (TCNN), which is constructed to fix the insensitivity of the self-attention mechanism to local features. Both parts are jointly trained within a regression module, which implies that the proposed approach differs from traditional ensemble learning models. It is applied on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset from the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames, and satisfactory results are obtained, especially under complex working conditions.

scholarly journals Estimating Remaining Useful Life for Degrading Systems with Large Fluctuations

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dang-Bo Du ◽  
Jian-Xun Zhang ◽  
Zhi-Jie Zhou ◽  
Xiao-Sheng Si ◽  
Chang-Hua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Threshold Function ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Degradation Data ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method based on degradation trajectory has been one of the most important parts in prognostics and health management (PHM). In the conventional model, the degradation data are usually used for degradation modeling directly. In engineering practice, the degradation of many systems presents a volatile situation, that is, fluctuation. In fact, the volatility of degradation data shows the stability of system, so it could be used to reflect the performance of system. As such, this paper proposes a new degradation model for RUL estimation based on the volatility of degradation data. Firstly the degradation data are decomposed into trend items and random items, which are defined as a stochastic process. Then the standard deviation of the stochastic process is defined as another performance variable because standard deviation reflects the system performance. Finally the Wiener process and the normal stochastic process are used to model the trend items and random items separately, and then the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL is obtained via a redefined failure threshold function that combines the trend items and the standard deviation of the random items. Two practical case studies demonstrate that, compared with traditional approaches, the proposed model can deal with the degradation data with many fluctuations better and can get a more reasonable result which is convenient for maintenance decision.

scholarly journals Physics Based Deep Learning Technique for Prognostics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Akkad
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Recognition Performance ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Learning Technique ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is one of the most important aspects of prognostics and health management (PHM). Various deep learning (DL) based techniques have been developed and applied for the purposes of RUL estimation. One limitation of DL is the lack of physical interpretations as they are purely data driven models. Another limitation is the need for an exceedingly large amount of data to arrive at an acceptable pattern recognition performance for the purposes of RUL estimation. This research is aimed to overcome these limitations by developing physics based DL techniques for RUL prediction and validate the method with real run-to-failure datasets. The contribution of the research relies on creating hybrid DL based techniques as well as combining physics based approaches with DL techniques for effective RUL prediction.

scholarly journals A data-driven framework for remaining useful life estimation

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoa Dinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Data Processing ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Search Experiment ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Structural Health Management ◽  
Processing Techniques ◽  
Data Library

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is one of the most common tasks in the field of prognostics and structural health management. The aim of this research is to estimate the remaining useful life of an unspecified complex system using some data-driven approaches. The approaches are suitable for problems in which a data library of complete runs of a system is available. Given a non-complete  run of the system, the RUL can be predicted  using these approaches. Three main RUL prediction algorithms, which cover centralized data processing, decentralize data processing, and  in-between, are introduced and evaluated using the data of PHM’08 Challenge Problem. The methods involve the use of some other data processing techniques including wavelets denoise and similarity search. Experiment results show that all of the approaches  are effective in performing RUL prediction.

scholarly journals Remaining useful life prediction for power-shift steering transmission based on fusion of multiple oil spectra

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 168781401878420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Fa Yan ◽  
Biao Ma ◽  
Chang-Song Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Life Prediction ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Kernel Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Degradation Index ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Power Shift ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life prediction is a critical issue to fault diagnosis and health management of power-shift steering transmission. Power-shift steering transmission wear, which leads to the increase of wear particles and severe wear afterwards, is a slow degradation process, which can be monitored by oil spectral analysis, but the actual degree of the power-shift steering transmission degradation is often difficult to evaluate. The main purpose of this article is to provide a more accurate remaining useful life prediction methodology for power-shift steering transmission compared to relying solely on an individual spectral oil data. Our methodology includes multiple degradation data fusion, degradation index construction, degradation modelling and remaining useful life estimation procedures. First, the robust kernel principal component analysis is used to reduce the data dimension, and the state space model is utilized to construct the wear degradation index. Then, the Wiener process–based degradation model is established based on the constructed degradation index, and the explicit formulas for several important quantities for remaining useful life estimation such as the probability density function and cumulative distribution function are derived. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed remaining useful life prediction methodology can objectively describe the power-shift steering transmission degradation law, and the predicted remaining useful life has been extended as 65 Mh (38.2%) compared with specified maintenance interval. This will reduce the maintenance times of power-shift steering transmission life cycle and finally save the maintenance costs.

scholarly journals Enhancing Decisions in Prognostics and Health Management Framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Bougacha ◽  
Christophe Varnier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Research Studies

Prognostics and health management have become increasingly important in recent years. Many research studies focus on a crucial phase consisting of predicting the remaining useful life of equipment or a component. However, this step is often carried out without taking into account the decisions that will be taken later. This article aims to propose a modification of the existing PHM framework to combine the prognostics and decision-making phases in a closed loop. In this paper, the presented framework is described and some elements for its implementation are proposed. A simplifiedexample is developed to illustrate the presented methodology of post-prognostic decision enhancement.

Identifying Parameters for Nonlinear Degradation-Based Prognostics

2019 ◽  
pp. 237-260
Author(s):  
Feng Yang ◽  
Mohamed Salahuddin
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Induction Motors ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Health Index ◽  
Identification Method ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Parameter Values

Prognostics and health management (PHM) methodologies are increasingly playing active roles in improving the availability, reliability, efficiency, productivity, and safety of systems in many industries. In predicting the remaining useful life (RUL), this chapter introduces a prognostics framework with health index (HI) formulation, with specific emphasis on incorporating and validating nonlinear HI degradations. The key issue to the success of this framework is how to identify appropriate parameters in describing the behavior of the nonlinear HI degradations. Using exponential HI degradation as an example in predicting the RULs of induction motors, this chapter discusses three different explorations in verifying the existence of good parameter values as well as identifying the appropriate parameters automatically. Comprehensive experiments were carried out with degradation process (DP) data from eight induction motors, and it was discovered that good parameters can be automatically determined with the proposed parameter identification method.

scholarly journals An Applicable Predictive Maintenance Framework for the Absence of Run-to-Failure Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5180
Author(s):  
Donghwan Kim ◽  
Seungchul Lee ◽  
Daeyoung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Health Index ◽  
Computing Technology ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Useful Life

As technology advances, the equipment becomes more complicated, and the importance of the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to monitor the condition of the equipment has risen. In recent years, various methodologies have emerged. With the development of computing technology, methodologies using machine learning and deep learning are gaining attention, in particular. As these algorithms become more advanced, the performance of detecting anomalies and predicting failures has improved dramatically. However, most of the studies are cases that depend on simulation data or assumed abnormal conditions. In addition, regardless of the existence of run-to-failure data, the methodologies are difficult to apply to the industrial site directly. To solve this problem, we propose a Predictive Maintenance (PdM) framework based on unsupervised learning in this paper, which can be applied directly in the industrial field regardless of run-to-failure data. The proposed framework consists of data acquisition, preprocessing data, constructing a Health Index, and predicting the remaining useful life. We propose a framework that can create and monitor models even when there are no accumulated run-to-failure data. The proposed framework was conducted in two different real-life cases, and the usefulness and applicability of the proposed methodology were verified.

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