Model Uncertainty in Fluid-Structure Impact Risk Analysis
This paper investigates the issue of model uncertainty in risk assessments of fluid-structure impact problems. Model-based risk assessments of complex phenomena such as the space shuttle solid rocket booster (SRB) splashdown event is affected by significant model uncertainty and approximations in finite element discretization, damage modeling, and the probabilistic analysis. Model verification and validation (V&V) helps in systematic assessment of modeling error, and suitable V&V techniques are explored in this paper. Since experimental testing of the SRB is infeasible, a simplified experimental framework is devised using an aluminum cylinder hinged at one end, with the objective of providing insights into the required model form (validation) as well as the required model resolution (verification). Preliminary results from error quantification as well as experimental validation are presented and discussed. Such information could be used to develop confidence and credibility in real-world reliability predictions of fluid-structure impact problems such as SRB splashdown.