Example of Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Gas Pipeline

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunyong Huo ◽  
Chuanjing Zhuang ◽  
Minxu Lu ◽  
Helin Li ◽  
Guoxing Li
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Preliminary Data ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Calculated Risk ◽  
Risk Areas

Quantitative risk analysis was carried out on a proposed natural gas pipeline based on preliminary data using the methods and models implemented in the PIRAMID™ software program. The high-risk areas were identified and the main causes of risk were analyzed. Measures to lower the calculated risk levels were developed, which will be taken into consideration in the design and construction of the pipeline.

scholarly journals QRA-Grid: Quantitative Risk Analysis and Grid-based Pre-warning Model for Urban Natural Gas Pipeline

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang Li ◽  
Chengqi Cheng ◽  
Guoliang Pu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Warning Model ◽  
Grid Based

With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the occurrence of accidents owing to leakage, fire, explosion, etc., has increased. Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) models and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, we put forward a quantitative risk simulation model for urban natural gas pipeline, combining with a multi-level grid-based pre-warning model. We develop a simulation and pre-warning model named QRA-Grid, conducting fire and explosion risk assessment, presenting the risk by using a grid map. Experiments show that by using the proposed method, we can develop a fire and explosion accident pre-warning model for gas pipelines, and effectively predict areas in which accidents will happen. As a result, we can make a focused and forceful policy in areas which have some potential defects in advance, and even carry out urban planning once more, rebuilding it to prevent the risk.

scholarly journals A quantitative risk analysis method for the natural gas pipeline network

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.-D. Jo ◽  
K.-S. Park ◽  
H.-S. Kim ◽  
J.-J. Kim ◽  
J.-Y. Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Pipeline Network ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline

scholarly journals Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian Shan ◽  
Kang Liu ◽  
Pei-Liang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Natural Gas Pipelines ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Major Mode ◽  
Bow Tie

Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential risk factors and consequences of the failure. Then construct the Bow-tie model, use the quantitative analysis of Bayesian network to find the weak links in the system, and make a prediction of the control measures to reduce the rate of the accident. In order to deal with the uncertainty existing in the determination of the probability of basic events, fuzzy logic method is used. Results of a case study show that the most likely causes of natural gas pipeline leakage occurrence are parties ignore signage, implicit signage, overload, and design defect of auxiliaries. Once the leakage occurs, it is most likely to result in fire and explosion. Corresponding measures taken on time will reduce the disaster degree of accidents to the least extent.

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