Hull-Girder Reliability of an Aged Oil Tanker

Author(s):  
Josˇko Parunov ◽  
Paulo Mage ◽  
C. Guedes Soares

The aim of the paper is to assess the hull-girder reliability of an existing single-hull oil tanker after 25 years of service using a reliability method and assumptions very similar to those proposed recently by International Maritime Organization (IMO). The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance with the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS)-recommended procedure, while transfer functions are calculated using the linear strip theory. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of statistical analysis of data recorded on single-hull oil tankers. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by progressive collapse analysis and by a single-step procedure according to Common Structural Rules (CSR). The reliability analysis is performed for three states of the hull: as built ship with scantlings of the new ship, CSR corroded state with net thicknesses of the structural members according to the corrosion deduction thickness proposed by CSR and survey state with scantlings according to the thickness measurements after 25 years of service. The yearly probability of structural failure is calculated using the first-order reliability method, while sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of the results with changes of the random variables within their plausible ranges. Results of the analysis are compared with recommended target reliability indices proposed by IMO and also with the results of the reliability assessment of the new double-hull tanker. Such comparison is possible since similar reliability methods and uncertainty models are employed. Results of the analysis may have several useful applications related to the decision-making aspects of the future of an aged oil tanker.

2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (04) ◽  
pp. 192-199
Author(s):  
Jôsko Parunov ◽  
Maro Corak ◽  
C. Guedes Soares

The aim of the paper is to calculate hull-girder reliability of chemical tanker according to the reliability model proposed by International Maritime Organization (IMO). The probability of hull-girder failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method for two operational profiles—one typical for oil tanker and the other one modified in order to reflect differences between oil tanker and chemical tanker. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance with International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) recommended procedure. The stillwater loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by progressive collapse analysis and by single-step procedure. The reliability analysis is performed for "as-built" ship and for "corroded" ship according to corrosion deduction thickness from new Common Structural Rules for double-hull oil tankers. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of "as-built" chemical tanker is well above the upper reliability bound proposed by IMO, while the "corroded" ship is slightly unconservative since the reliability index is lower than IMO lower reliability bound.


Author(s):  
C. Guedes Soares ◽  
Joško Parunov

The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Common Structural Rules (CSR) requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by CSR single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for as-built and corroded states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with CSR. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new CSR is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.


Author(s):  
C. Guedes Soares ◽  
Josˇko Parunov

The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Joint Tanker Project (JTP) rule requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to IACS recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by JTP single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for “as-built” and “corroded” states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with new JTP rules. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new JTP rules is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.


Author(s):  
Ingrid Marie Vincent Andersen ◽  
Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Currently, a number of very large container ships are being built and more are on order, and some concerns have been expressed about the importance of the reduced hull girder stiffness to the wave-induced loads. The main concern is related to the fatigue life, but also a possible increase in the global hull girder loads as consequence of the increased hull flexibility must be considered. This is especially so as the rules of the classification societies do not explicitly account for the effect of hull flexibility on the global loads. In the present paper an analysis has been carried out for the 9,400 TEU container ship used as case-ship in the EU project TULCS (Tools for Ultra Large Container Ships). A non-linear time-domain strip theory is used for the hydrodynamic analysis of the vertical bending moment amidships in sagging and hogging conditions for a flexible and a rigid modelling of the ship. The theory takes into account non-linear radiation forces (memory effects) through the use of a set of higher order differential equations. The non-linear hydrostatic restoring forces and non-linear Froude-Krylov forces are determined accurately at the instantaneous position of the ship in the waves. Slamming forces are determined by a standard momentum formulation. The hull flexibility is modelled as a non-prismatic Timoshenko beam. Generally, good agreement with experimental results and more accurate numerical predictions has previously been obtained in a number of studies. The statistical analysis is done using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) supplemented with Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, strip-theory calculations are compared to model tests in regular waves of different wave lengths using a segmented, flexible model of the case-ship and good agreement is obtained for the longest of the waves. For the shorter waves the agreement is less good. The discrepancy in the amplitudes of the bending moment can most probably be explained by an underestimation on the effect of momentum slamming in the strip-theory applied.


Author(s):  
Enrong Qi ◽  
Weicheng Cui

Based on long-time theoretical and experimental work in authors group, assessment methods of ultimate strength of ship hulls are analyzed and improved. Nonlinear finite element analysis method (FEM), idealized structural unit method (ISUM), simplified method (SM) and analytical method (AM) are integrated into a software system of direct calculations of large tankers. Using this software system, a comparative calculation is performed on ultimate hull girder strength of a 300,000dwt double hull tanker and the calculation results are also compared with the single step procedure of Common Structural Rules for double hull tankers (JTP CSR).


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Chuan Chen ◽  
Chien-Hua Huang ◽  
Kuan-Chen Chen ◽  
Po-Wen Wang

The International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Harmonised Common Structural Rules (CSR-H) have been released and will take effect on July 1, 2015. The local loads under extreme motion conditions, defined in the CSR-H, were investigated for an oil tanker by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, STAR-CCM+, and included bow flare slamming pressure and bottom slamming pressure at the bottom of the bow or stern bottom. The extreme motion defined in the CSR-H was investigated using the potential code HydroSTAR. To benchmark the numerical results, resistance and seakeeping model tests were performed on the oil tanker. The two test results were simulated using the two software packages, respectively, and the numerical results were in good agreement with the test results. Finally, this study demonstrated that the slamming pressures defined by the CSR-H are safe and conservative with regard to the structural design.


Author(s):  
Ozgur Ozguc

The fatigue of structural details of ships is of great importance in the maritime industry as they can lead to cracks which can jeopardize structural integrity. The hopper knuckle is among the most vulnerable areas in a ship with respect to fatigue damage. Analysis of the hopper knuckle has become mandatory for tankers in the Class Ship Rules and in the International Association of Classification Societies Common Structural Rules. Along with the fatigue damage record of the vessels, the fatigue analysis of the hopper knuckles is essential to ensure that the vessels have sufficient fatigue strength. In the current work, fatigue calculations are performed of the upper and lower hopper knuckle connections within midship of the oil tanker using simplified fatigue calculations based on Det Norske Veritas (DNVGL) Classification Note No. 30.7. The fatigue analysis is based on 25 years of operation in worldwide wave environment. A cargo hold model (½ + 1 + ½) amidships and a local finite element model of the hopper knuckle are generated. The local model provides relevant hotspot stress for fatigue life calculations. The results from the hopper knuckle fatigue analysis show that the vessels may expect fatigue cracks at lower hopper knuckle before the vessel reaches its design life of 25 years. Based on the findings, it is recommended to fit soft brackets and close scallops at the lower hopper knuckle on selected common frames in all cargo holds.


2011 ◽  
Vol 55 (03) ◽  
pp. 208-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Decó ◽  
Dan M. Fragopol ◽  
Nader M. Okasha

An efficient procedure for the computation of the redundancy of ship structures is presented. The changes in the redundancy due to corrosion section loss over time are also studied. Moreover, uncertainties associated with structural geometry, material properties, and loading, are accounted for. In order to calculate the redundancy index, the probability of failure of the first component and the probability of ultimate failure of the whole hull girder must be evaluated. The probability of failure is computed using a hybrid Latin Hypercube - second-order reliability method (SORM) technique. The deterministic analyses during the simulations are conducted using an optimization approach for computing the ultimate bending strength of the whole hull girder and the progressive collapse method for computing the first bending failure.


Author(s):  
J Parunov ◽  
K _iha ◽  
P Mage ◽  
P Juri_i_

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