Estimation of Weibull Life Distributions From Expert Categorical Estimates of Failure Probabilities

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Cluever ◽  
Thomas Esselman ◽  
Sam Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Life Cycle Management ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Life Distributions ◽  
Effective Decision Making

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) with Électricité de France (EDF) developed the Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM) computer code to provide a standard methodology to support effective decision making for the long-term management of selected nuclear station components. In 2016, a Likelihood of Replacement (LoR) expert elicitation was developed to provide reliability curves for determination of replacement options for components that were not initially included in ILCM. The LoR methodology required expert’s to estimate future replacement probabilities which were then combined with historical failures using Bayesian analysis. Although this methodology was effective, parts of the industry were accustomed to providing a High/Medium/Low (HML) probability categorization for selected periods of operation. This paper presents an approach for calculating Weibull replacement probability curves from HML categorical replacement probability estimates. Additional questions beyond the initial HML categorization were developed. These focused on the timing of category transitions to refine parameter likelihood functions, reduce parameter uncertainty, and offset the significant Weibull parameter uncertainty introduced by using categorical estimates.

Bayesian Analysis of Expert Elicitation Responses for Life Cycle Management Replacement Probability Estimates

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Cluever ◽  
Thomas Esselman ◽  
Sam Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Life Cycle Management ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Standard Tool ◽  
Expert’S Opinion ◽  
Effective Decision Making

In 2014, the Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM) computer code was developed through collaboration between the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Électricité de France (EDF) to provide a standard methodology to support effective decision making for the long-term management of selected station assets. In order for the ILCM program to become a standard tool in the industry, additional work was needed in the development of a Likelihood of Replacement (LoR) calculator. The LoR calculator estimates the likelihood that a component will have to be replaced due to failure or reasons other than failure, such as high maintenance cost, inability to maintain, obsolescence, and other similar reasons. Expert elicitation was chosen as the method of gathering data and opinions on component replacement probabilities. The majority of expert elicitation techniques consist of experts giving opinions on the probability of replacement at various points in time, from which a reliability curve can be calculated. Furthermore, any failure or replacement data is subjectively incorporated in to the expert’s opinion. The present work uses Bayesian analysis to provide an objective method for statistically combining expert opinion with failure and replacement data. This paper also describes the process of extracting a Weibull LoR curve from expert’s opinions and reported failures and replacements. The expert’s work history and answer confidence is used to assign uncertainty in their answers and calculate 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile credibility Weibull curves for the probability of replacement.

scholarly journals A Multi-criteria Approach in the Project Selection Process in Multi-Project Context

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Charles Éric Manyombé ◽  
Sébastien H. Azondékon
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Selection Procedure ◽  
Project Selection ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Organizational Complexity ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Project Environment ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Effective Decision Making

In a multi-project environment, organizational complexity refers to the difficulties that organizations often face in choosing projects to build their portfolios, since they do not aim to achieve the same strategic business objectives. It is for this reason that the project selection process requires the implementation of an effective decision-making tool when composing a project portfolio. The objective of this paper is to propose an adapted framework for a better project selection procedure inspired by the approaches of strategic relevance, profitability criteria, uncertainty, and risk analysis, the ability to dispose of scarce resources, and the determination of interdependencies between different projects. 

scholarly journals Better understanding of the labour market using Big Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 677-692
Author(s):  
Alena Vankevich ◽  
Iryna Kalinouskaya
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
New Information ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Effective Decision Making

Motivation: As the result of digitalisation of the economy, the number of Internet users is increasing, which leads to an increase in the number of vacancies posted on online platforms and services. The description of vacancies includes information about skills and competencies, which is the source of additional data for the labour market analysis. This information cannot be received through the analysis of statistical and administrative data. Therefore, it is important: — to learn how to evaluate new information sources, and use the data they generate; — to develop tools that people and organizations will use for finding an employee or a vacant post. The study focuses on the analysis and forecast of labour demand in the context of skills and competencies, which significantly enriches and adds to the information about the labour market and facilitates effective decision-making. Aim: The main goals of this article are the following: (1) identification of the methodological approaches in the labour market analyses using Big Data; (2) assessment of the labour demand and labour supply in the context of skills and competencies listed in the vacancy description posted on job portals; and (3) determination of the matches (mismatches) between skills and competencies in order to help the companies and individuals get better employment and education. Empirical data used in the research were collected from the description of job vacancies (16 401 vacancies) and CVs (227 215 CVs) from the most popular open job portals in Belarus through the scraping approach and classified according to the ESCO and ISCO codes. Quantitative analysis by the means of artificial intelligence was used in the research. Results: The study results revealed that the information about the volume and structure of skills and competencies obtained by scraping data from vacancy descriptions and Cvs, which are posted on online portals, allows for more precise diagnostics of labour demand and supply and overcoming of bilateral information asymmetry in the labour market. Based on the analysis, the parameters of scarcity and excess in competencies for individual occupations in the labour market are determined (the level of the correlation ratio between applicants’ competencies and those requested by employers in the context of occupations (four digits according to the ISCO classification) is less 0.8; the deviation of the ranks of competencies listed in CVs and vacancy descriptions according to the ESCO groups of skills/competencies and a sign of revealed deviations). The methodology is developed to set areas for necessary knowledge acquisition (by the analysis of competencies listed in CVs and vacancy descriptions at the 3rd and 4th digit level of ISCED classification) and skills (by the analysis of competencies at the 2nd digit level in ESCO groups). The paper illustrates limitations in using Big Data as an empirical database and explains the measures to eliminate those limitations.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFORMASI AKUNTANSI TERHADAP KEBERHASILAN USAHA KECIL DAN MENENGAH STUDI PADA UKM PENGRAJIN KULIT DI BANTUL

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 190
Author(s):  
Surya Kresna Anggara ◽  
Rohmad Yuliantoro Catur Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Research Result ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
Is Research ◽  
Finance Company ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Effective Decision Making

Accounting information useful for measuring and communicating information a finance company that desperately needs the management in the formulation of various decisions made to solve the problems faced by. This study attempts to get a clear on the influence of accounting information to successful smes craftsman the skin on bantul. The research is research quantitative with method the sample used is purposive sampling. The kind of data that used was the data primary. Data processing done using the tools spss 19 to technique regression analysis linear multiple. This research result indicates that information accounting simultaneously influential to successful smes. Variable financial report in partial do not affect. While planning effective, decision-making, the determination of hpp, and the determination of the selling price influential to successful smes. The result of this research also suggested that variable an independent in this study can influence the success of smes of 52 %, the rest influenced by a factor of other than this research.

Parliamentarism and the Legislative Branch

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
András Sajó ◽  
Renáta Uitz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Legislative Branch ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
The Law ◽  
Internal Operations ◽  
Effective Decision Making ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Law Making

This chapter examines the relationship between parliamentarism and the legislative branch. It explores the evolution of the legislative branch, leading to disillusionment with the rationalized law-making factory, a venture run by political parties beyond the reach of constitutional rules. The rise of democratically bred party rule is positioned between the forces favouring free debate versus effective decision-making in the legislature. The chapter analyses the institutional make-up and internal operations of the legislature, the role of the opposition in the legislative assembly, and explores the benefits of bicameralism for boosting the powers of the legislative branch. Finally, it looks at the law-making process and its outsourcing via delegating legislative powers to the executive.

scholarly journals Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): motivations and challenges of a Multinational Enterprise (MNE) subsidiary’s engagement with host communities in Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyon Salia Awuah ◽  
Kwame Oduro Amoako ◽  
Stephen Yeboah ◽  
Emmanuel Opoku Marfo ◽  
Peter Ansu-Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Multinational Enterprise ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
High Expectations ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Effective Decision Making ◽  
Internal Stakeholders ◽  
Corporate Social

AbstractThis paper aims to explore the motivations and challenges of engaging host communities in CSR practices within the context of Newmont Ahafo Mines (NAM), a subsidiary of a Multinational Mining Enterprise (MNE) operating in Ghana’s mining sector. This paper draws insights from stakeholder theory and interviews conducted with internal stakeholders (management and employees) and stakeholders in host communities (traditional rulers and community members). The findings indicate that effective decision-making, gaining legitimacy, cost savings, management of risks, and accountability are some of the perceived motivations of NAM’s stakeholder engagement in CSR. Nonetheless, the most critical challenges to NAM in improving stakeholder engagement in CSR practices are the lack of community members’ support in CSR projects, communities’ high expectations of NAM on development projects and over-dependency on NAM on the part of host communities. Therefore, it is reasonable for MNEs in emerging economies to attune engagement practices to the host community’s context. This will enable CSR practices and policies to fully exploit the latent benefits of CSR in the mining sector.

scholarly journals Reflections on the Importance of Cost of Illness Analysis in Rare Diseases: A Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1101
Author(s):  
Patrizio Armeni ◽  
Marianna Cavazza ◽  
Entela Xoxi ◽  
Domenica Taruscio ◽  
Yllka Kodra
Keyword(s):  
Rare Diseases ◽  
Cost Of Illness ◽  
Fragile X ◽  
Direct Costs ◽  
Medicinal Products ◽  
Novel Treatments ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Effective Decision ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Effective Decision Making

In the field of rare diseases (RDs), the evidence standard is often lower than that required by health technology assessment (HTA) and payer authorities. In this commentary, we propose that appropriate economic evaluation for rare disease treatments should be initially informed by cost-of-illness (COI) studies conducted using a societal perspective. Such an approach contributes to improving countries’ understanding of RDs in their entirety as societal and not merely clinical, or product-specific issues. In order to exemplify how the disease burden’s distribution has changed over the last fifteen years, key COI studies for Hemophilia, Fragile X Syndrome, Cystic Fibrosis, and Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis are examined. Evidence shows that, besides methodological variability and cross-country differences, the disease burden’s share represented by direct costs generally grows over time as novel treatments become available. Hence, to support effective decision-making processes, it seems necessary to assess the re-allocation of the burden produced by new medicinal products, and this approach requires identifying cost drivers through COI studies with robust design and standardized methodology.

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