Exposure to climate change drives stability or collapse of desert mammal and bird communities

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 371 (6529) ◽  
pp. 633-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Riddell ◽  
K. J. Iknayan ◽  
L. Hargrove ◽  
S. Tremor ◽  
J. L. Patton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Small Mammal ◽  
Mojave Desert ◽  
Bird Communities ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Microhabitat Use ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Species Occupancy ◽  
Mammal Communities

High exposure to warming from climate change is expected to threaten biodiversity by pushing many species toward extinction. Such exposure is often assessed for all taxa at a location from climate projections, yet species have diverse strategies for buffering against temperature extremes. We compared changes in species occupancy and site-level richness of small mammal and bird communities in protected areas of the Mojave Desert using surveys spanning a century. Small mammal communities remained remarkably stable, whereas birds declined markedly in response to warming and drying. Simulations of heat flux identified different exposure to warming for birds and mammals, which we attribute to microhabitat use. Estimates from climate projections are unlikely to accurately reflect species’ exposure without accounting for the effects of microhabitat buffering on heat flux.

Spatial and temporal organisation of small mammal communities in the Monte desert, Argentina

Mammalia ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeria Corbalán ◽  
Ricardo Ojeda
Keyword(s):  
Small Mammal ◽  
Habitat Heterogeneity ◽  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Structural Heterogeneity ◽  
Microhabitat Use ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Monte Desert ◽  
Small Mammal Communities ◽  
Mammal Assemblages ◽  
Mammal Communities

The coexistence of desert small mammals can be explained by differences in microhabitat use, morphology, body size, diet and foraging. The aim of this study was to quantify the structure of small mammal assemblages and the seasonal fluctuations in their abundance using mark – recapture techniques in habitats of different structural heterogeneity (mesquite forest, creosotebush community, and sand dunes) in the temperate Monte desert of Argentina. Habitat heterogeneity was characterised by 10 vegetation variables. The mesquite forest and the creosotebush community showed the highest diversity and habitat heterogeneity. The relative abundance of each species underwent remarkable variations between habitats. The sigmodontinae rodents

Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA

Science ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 322 (5899) ◽  
pp. 261-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Moritz ◽  
J. L. Patton ◽  
C. J. Conroy ◽  
J. L. Parra ◽  
G. C. White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Small Mammal ◽  
National Park ◽  
Yosemite National Park ◽  
Small Mammal Communities ◽  
Mammal Communities

scholarly journals Hydrologic evaluation and effects of climate change on the Nong Han Lake Basin, northeastern Thailand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1000
Author(s):  
Jirawat Supakosol ◽  
Kowit Boonrawd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Regional Climates ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Northeastern Thailand

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals Comparison of regional characteristics of land precipitation climatology projected by an MRI-AGCM multi-cumulus scheme and multi-SST ensemble with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Ito ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽  
Izuru Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
High Performing

AbstractEnsembles of climate change projections created by general circulation models (GCMs) with high resolution are increasingly needed to develop adaptation strategies for regional climate change. The Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric GCM version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2), which is listed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), has been typically run with resolutions of 60 km and 20 km. Ensembles of MRI-AGCM3.2 consist of members with multiple cumulus convection schemes and different patterns of future sea surface temperature, and are utilized together with their downscaled data; however, the limited size of the high-resolution ensemble may lead to undesirable biases and uncertainty in future climate projections that will limit its appropriateness and effectiveness for studies on climate change and impact assessments. In this study, to develop a comprehensive understanding of the regional precipitation simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2, we investigate how well MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the present-day regional precipitation around the globe and compare the uncertainty in future precipitation changes and the change projection itself between MRI-AGCM3.2 and the CMIP5 multiple atmosphere–ocean coupled GCM (AOGCM) ensemble. MRI-AGCM3.2 reduces the bias of the regional mean precipitation obtained with the high-performing CMIP5 models, with a reduction of approximately 20% in the bias over the Tibetan Plateau through East Asia and Australia. When 26 global land regions are considered, MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the spatial pattern and the regional mean realistically in more regions than the individual CMIP5 models. As for the future projections, in 20 of the 26 regions, the sign of annual precipitation change is identical between the 50th percentiles of the MRI-AGCM3.2 ensemble and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In the other six regions around the tropical South Pacific, the differences in modeling with and without atmosphere–ocean coupling may affect the projections. The uncertainty in future changes in annual precipitation from MRI-AGCM3.2 partially overlaps the maximum–minimum uncertainty range from the full ensemble of the CMIP5 models in all regions. Moreover, on average over individual regions, the projections from MRI-AGCM3.2 spread over roughly 0.8 of the uncertainty range from the high-performing CMIP5 models compared to 0.4 of the range of the full ensemble.

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