scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Flood Hazard of the Middle Brahmaputra Reach, India

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subashisa Dutta ◽  
◽  
Shyamal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Flood Characteristics

Being the highest specific discharge river in the world, the Brahmaputra has a large floodplain area of 700 km in length in its middle reaches falling in the high flood vulnerability category. Floods generated in upland Himalayan catchments are mainly controlled by land use and land cover, storm characteristics, and vegetation dynamics. Floods propagate through a floodplain region consisting of wetlands, paddy agriculture, and wide braided river reaches with natural constraint points (nodals) that make the reaches more vulnerable to flood hazards. In this study, a macroscale distributed hydrological model was used to obtain the flood characteristics of the reaches. A hydrological model with spatially distributed input parameters and meteorological data was simulated at (1 km × 1 km) spatial grids to estimate flood hydrographs at the main river and itsmajor tributaries. Aftermodel validation, “best guess” land use change scenarios were used to estimate potential changes in flood characteristics. Results show that at the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, peak discharge increases by a maximum of 9% for land use change scenarios. The same model with bias-corrected climatological data from a regional climate model (RCM) simulation (PRECIS) was used to obtain future changes in flood generation and its propagation through the basin in the projected climatological scenario. Changes in flood characteristics with reference to the baseline period show that the average duration of flood waves will increase from 15.2 days in the baseline period (1961-1990) to 19.3 days in the future (2071-2100). Peak discharge will increase by an average of 21% in the future in the projected climate change scenario. After statistics on changes of flood characteristics in the projected climate change scenario (2071-2100) were obtained, a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to obtain flood inundation and velocity distribution on the floodplain. Distribution of velocity and inundation depth was spatially analyzed to obtain flood hazard zones in the projected climate change scenario. Results show that spatial variation in flood hazard zones will be significantly altered in the projected climate change scenario compared to land use/land cover changes.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Hydrologic Regimes and Sediment Yield of Pulangi River Basin (PRB) for Watershed Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9041
Author(s):  
Warda Panondi ◽  
Norihiro Izumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Global Circulation Models

The impacts of climate change are increasingly threatening the sustainability of ecosystems around the world. The Pulangi River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines is experiencing sedimentation beyond the tolerable amount (11.2 tons/ha/yr) due to land conversion and the effects of climate change. Changes in precipitation and temperature due to climate change are likely to further affect the annual runoff and sediment yield of PRB. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate various scenarios of twelve downscaled climate projections from three Global Circulation Models (GCM) of CMIP5 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 timeframes, and the results were compared to a baseline period (1975–2005). This study revealed that the maximum mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 39.10%, and the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 3.04 °C and 3.83 °C, respectively. These observed changes correspond to an increase in runoff (44.58–76.80%) and sediment yield (1.33–26.28%) within the sub-basins. These findings suggest a general increase in the threat of severe flooding and excessive soil loss, leading to severe erosion and reservoir sedimentation throughout the PRB.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Soybeans Water Use and Yields in Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 593
Author(s):  
Oludare Sunday Durodola ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to reliance on rainfed agriculture. In this regard, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of soybean in the Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria, were evaluated for the baseline period (1986–2015) and future period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using AquaCrop Version 6.1. Future climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s climate models (HadGEM2-ES and RCA4) were used in simulating the future scenarios. The results show that for the baseline period, CWR and yield are increasing while CWP shows a slight increase. For the future period, the CWR is projected to fluctuate and depend on the rainfall pattern. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide fertilization has positive effects on yield and is projected to increase up to 40% under RCP 8.5. The results of this study certainly offer useful information on suitable adaption measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to improve soybean productivity in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals The Long-term Projection of Surface Runoff in the Regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin based on Water-energy Balance

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01099
Author(s):  
Jun Yin ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Run Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Models

The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study did a case study in regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantity relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset coming from CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin can be addressed. The results showed that: (1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study has fewer parameters and simpler calculation methods. The model was good at simulating annual surface runoff. (2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A 1°C increase in temperature might results in a surface runoff decrease of 2~5% and a 10% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 14~17%. (3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin were projected to increase by 1.4~2.3°C in 1961 to 1990 compared with that in 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was excepted to decrease by 1.3~23.9% without considering the climate change projected by NorESM1-M and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, which was much different from other GCMs.

scholarly journals The implications of climate change scenario selection for future streamflow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 3989-4007 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. L. Harding ◽  
A. W. Wood ◽  
J. R. Prairie
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Upper Colorado River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of projected 21st century climate conditions on streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin was estimated using a multi-model ensemble approach wherein the downscaled outputs of 112 future climate projections from 16 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a macroscale hydrology model. By the middle of the century, the impacts on streamflow range, over the entire ensemble, from a decrease of approximately 30% to an increase of approximately the same magnitude. Although prior studies and associated media coverage have focused heavily on the likelihood of a drier future for the Colorado River Basin, approximately 25 to 35% of the ensemble of runs, by 2099 and 2039, respectively, result in no change or increases in streamflow. The broad range of projected impacts is primarily the result of uncertainty in projections of future precipitation, and a relatively small part of the variability of precipitation across the projections can be attributed to the effect of emissions pathways. The simulated evolution of future temperature is strongly influenced by emissions, but temperature has a smaller influence than precipitation on flow. Period change statistics (i.e., the change in flow from one 30-yr period to another) vary as much within a model ensemble as between models and emissions pathways. Even by the end of the current century, the variability across the projections is much greater than changes in the ensemble mean. The relatively large ensemble analysis described herein provides perspective on earlier studies that have used fewer scenarios, and suggests that impact analyses relying on one or a few climate scenarios are unacceptably influenced by the choice of projections.

scholarly journals A comparison between direct and indirect frameworks to evaluate impacts of climate change on streamflows: case study of Karkheh River basin in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Nasseri ◽  
Banafsheh Zahraie ◽  
Leila Forouhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Karkheh River Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract In this paper, two approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflows have been used. In the first approach (direct), a statistical downscaling technique was utilized to predict future streamflows based on large-scale data of general circulation models (GCMs). In the second approach (indirect), GCM outputs were downscaled to produce local climate conditions which were then used as inputs to a hydrological simulation model. In this article, some data-mining methods such as model-tree, multivariate adaptive regression splines and group method of data handling were utilized for direct downscaling of streamflows. Projections of HadCM3 model for A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were also used to simulate future climate conditions. These evaluations were done over three sub-basins of Karkheh River basin in southwest Iran. To achieve a comprehensive assessment, a global uncertainty assessment method was used to evaluate the results of the models. The results indicated that despite simplifications included in the direct downscaling, this approach is accurate enough to be used for assessing climate change impacts on streamflows without computational efforts of hydrological modeling. Furthermore, comparing future climate projections, the uncertainty associated with elimination of hydrological modeling is estimated to be high.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River basin – extracting adaptation-relevant information from climate model ensembles and impact modelling

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Korck ◽  
J. Danneberg ◽  
W. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for the derivation of adaptation measures. An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up. As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of 2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst showing a decrease in autumn.

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