A hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating historical salmon escapement and escapement timing

2001 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 1648-1662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Su ◽  
Milo D Adkison ◽  
Benjamin W Van Alen
Keyword(s):  
Count Data ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Pink Salmon ◽  
Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Model ◽  
Southeast Alaska ◽  
Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Borrowing Strength

In this paper, we present an improved methodology for estimating salmon escapements from stream count data. The new method uses a hierarchical Bayesian model that improves estimates in years when data are sparse by "borrowing strength" from counts in other years. We present a model of escapement and of count data, a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework, a Gibbs sampling approach for evaluation of the posterior distributions of the quantities of interest, and criteria for determining when the model and inference are adequate. We then apply the hierarchical Bayesian model to estimating historical escapement and escapement timing for pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) returns to Kadashan Creek in Southeast Alaska.

Possible Effects of the Sitka Eddy on Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink Salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) Migration off Southeast Alaska

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 498-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Hamilton ◽  
Lawrence A. Mysak
Keyword(s):  
Oncorhynchus Nerka ◽  
Pink Salmon ◽  
Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Surface Currents ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Southeast Alaska ◽  
Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Northeast Pacific ◽  
Northeast Pacific Ocean

The interannual variability of sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) catches during 1952–62 from southeast Alaska and northern British Columbia is examined in relation to the appearance and disappearance of the Sitka eddy in the offshore oceanic circulation. In years when this large (~300 km in diameter) and intense (surface currents ~0.5 m/s) vortex is present, the spawning migration routes of salmon returning to the Nass and Skeena rivers tend to be deflected southward. An analysis of salmon tagging data collected during 1957 (when the eddy was absent) and 1958 (when the eddy was present) supports this conclusion. The southward deflection during 1958 is a particularly interesting result in light of many other observations which show that several fish species were displaced northward during the 1958 warming of the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Genetic Aanalysis of Size in an Anadromous Population of Pink Salmon

1994 ◽  
Vol 51 (S1) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Smoker ◽  
Anthony J. Gharrett ◽  
Michael S. Stekoll ◽  
John E. Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Variance Components ◽  
Genetic Basis ◽  
Pink Salmon ◽  
Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Southeast Alaska ◽  
Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Phenotypic Correlations ◽  
Sib Families ◽  
Mature Fish

Variation of size, particularly among males, has a significant genetic basis in pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in Auke Creek, southeast Alaska. Heritability (h2), based on variance components of 118 full sib − 59 paternal half sib families of mature fish tagged as fry with coded micro wires, are higher in males (h2 length: 0.8 ± 0.3 (mean ± SE); h2 weight: 0.6 ± 0.2, based on sire effect) than in females (h2 length: 0.3 ± 0.2; h2 weight: 0.4 ± 0.2). Realized heritability probably would be smaller because of environment variability between brood years in factors affecting size and growth. Estimates based on regression of offspring means on fathers' values are smaller (h2 length: 0.4 ± 0.1 in males; 0.2 ± 0.1 in females; h2 weight: 0.0 in males and 0.1 ± 0.1 in females). Estimates of genetic, environmental, and phenotypic correlations of length and weight are all >0.7 (SEs <0.1). Estimates of genetic correlation between length and day of migration from the sea are near 0.4 ± 0.2; estimates of environmental and phenotypic correlations between these traits are smaller (<0.2, SEs <0.1).

Spatial hierarchical Bayesian models for stock-recruitment analysis of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (12) ◽  
pp. 2471-2486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Su ◽  
Randall M Peterman ◽  
Steven L Haeseker
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Bayesian Models ◽  
Pink Salmon ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Models ◽  
Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Positive Effects

To improve the understanding of effects of environmental factors on spawner-to-recruit survival rates of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), we developed several spatial hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs). We applied these models to 43 pink salmon stocks in the Northeast Pacific. By using a distance-based, spatially correlated prior distribution for stock-specific parameters, these multistock models explicitly allowed for positive correlation among nearby salmon stocks in their productivities and coefficients of early summer coastal sea surface temperature (SST). To our knowledge, this is the first time that such distance-based, spatial prior probability distributions for parameters have been applied to fisheries problems. We found that the spatial HBMs produce more consistent and precise estimates of effects of SST on productivity than a single-stock approach that estimated parameters for each stock separately. Similar to earlier results using mixed-effects models for the same stocks, we found significant positive effects of SST on survival rates of northern pink salmon stocks, but weaker negative effects of SST on survival rates of southern pink salmon stocks. However, we show a smoother transition in magnitude of effects between these regions.

A Bernoulli-Gamma Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Daily Rainfall Forecasts

2021 ◽  
pp. 126317
Author(s):  
Carlos H. R. Lima ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon ◽  
Yong-Tak Kim
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Model

Robust resource demand estimation using hierarchical Bayesian model in a distributed service system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumanta Mukherjee ◽  
Krishnasuri Narayanam ◽  
Nupur Aggarwal ◽  
Digbalay Bose ◽  
Amith Singhee
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Service System ◽  
Demand Estimation ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Model ◽  
Resource Demand ◽  
Distributed Service

Outbreeding effect on embryo development in hybrids of allopatric pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) populations, a potential consequence of stock translocation

Aquaculture ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 272 ◽  
pp. S152-S160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan A. Wang ◽  
Sara E. Gilk ◽  
William W. Smoker ◽  
Anthony J. Gharrett
Keyword(s):  
Embryo Development ◽  
Pink Salmon ◽  
Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha ◽  
Potential Consequence ◽  
Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus Gorbuscha
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