Multitemporal analysis with statistical models: influence of the atmospheric condition on urban concentrations of particulate matter

This paper shows a multitemporal analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average models of the influence of atmospheric condition on concentrations of particulate matter ≤ 10 µm in Bogotá city, Colombia. Information was collected from six monitoring stations distributed throughout the city. The study period was nine years. Autoregressive component of the models suggests that urban areas with greater atmospheric instability show a lower hourly persistence of particulate matter (one hour) compared to urban areas with lower atmospheric instability (two hours). Moving average component of the models hints those urban areas with greater atmospheric instability show greater hourly variability in particulate matter concentrations (5-10 hours). The models also suggest that a high degree of air pollution decreases the temporal influence of the atmospheric condition on particulate matter concentrations; in this case, the temporal behavior of particulate matter possibly depends on the urban emission sources of this pollutant rather than on the existing atmospheric condition. This study is relevant to deepen the knowledge in relation to the following aspects of atmospheric physics: The use of statistical models for the time series analysis of atmospheric condition, and the analysis by statistical models of the influence of atmospheric condition on air pollutant concentrations.

Prolonged Exposure to Air Pollution Increases Periodontal Disease Risk: A Nationwide, Population-Based, Cohort Study

(1) Background: No association between air pollution and periodontitis has yet been shown. Thus, we merged two nationwide databases to evaluate the risk of periodontitis in Taiwanese residents with long-term exposure to air pollution. (2) Methods: We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study using the Longitudinal Generation Tracking Database and the Taiwan Air Quality-Monitoring Database. The daily average air pollutant concentrations were categorized into quartiles (Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4). We carried out Cox proportional hazards models to compute the hazard ratios of periodontitis, with 95% confidence intervals, in Q2–Q4 of the daily average air pollutant concentrations, compared with Q1. (3) Results: the adjusted HR (95 CI%) for periodontitis in Q2–Q4 increased with increased exposure to SO2, CO, NO, NO2, NOX, PM2.5, and PM10 from 1.72 (1.70, 1.76) to 4.86 (4.78–4.94); from 1.89 (1.85–1.93) to 2.64 (2.59–2.70); from 1.04 (1.02–1.06) to 1.52 (1.49–1.55); from 1.61 (1.58–1.64) to 2.51 (2.47–2.56); from 1.48 (1.45–1.51) to 2.11 (2.07–2.15); from 2.02 (1.98–2.06) to 22.9 (22.4–23.4, and from 2.71 (2.66–2.77) to 17.2 (16.8–17.6), respectively, compared to Q1. (4) Conclusions: Residents in Taiwan with long-term exposure to higher levels of air pollutants had a greater risk of periodontitis.

Machine-learning models to replicate large-eddy simulations of air pollutant concentrations along boulevard-type streets

Running large-eddy simulations (LESs) can be burdensome and computationally too expensive from the application point of view, for example, to support urban planning. In this study, regression models are used to replicate modelled air pollutant concentrations from LES in urban boulevards. We study the performance of regression models and discuss how to detect situations where the models are applied outside their training domain and their outputs cannot be trusted. Regression models from 10 different model families are trained and a cross-validation methodology is used to evaluate their performance and to find the best set of features needed to reproduce the LES outputs. We also test the regression models on an independent testing dataset. Our results suggest that in general, log-linear regression gives the best and most robust performance on new independent data. It clearly outperforms the dummy model which would predict constant concentrations for all locations (multiplicative minimum RMSE (mRMSE) of 0.76 vs. 1.78 of the dummy model). Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is possible to detect concept drift, i.e. situations where the model is applied outside its training domain and a new LES run may be necessary to obtain reliable results. Regression models can be used to replace LES simulations in estimating air pollutant concentrations, unless higher accuracy is needed. In order to have reliable results, it is however important to do the model and feature selection carefully to avoid overfitting and to use methods to detect the concept drift.

Intervention analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average models for time series of urban air pollutants

The objective of this paper is to show an intervention analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average models for time series of air pollutants in a Latin American megacity. The interventions considered in this study correspond to public regulations for the control of urban air quality. The study period comprised 10 years. Information from 10 monitoring stations distributed throughout the megacity was used. Modelling showed that setting maximum emission limits for different pollution sources and improving fuel were the most appropriate regulatory interventions to reduce air pollutant concentrations. Modelling results also suggested that these interventions began to be effective between the first 4 days-15 days after their publication. The models developed on a monthly timescale had a short autoregressive memory. The air pollutant concentrations at a given time were influenced by the concentrations of up to three months immediately preceding. Moving average term of the models showed fluctuations in time of the air pollutant concentrations (3 months - 14 months). Within the framework of the applications of physics for the air pollution control, this study is relevant for the following findings: the usefulness of autoregressive integrated moving average models to temporal simulate air pollutants, and for its suitable performance to detect and quantify regulatory interventions.

The Multi-Time Scale Changes in Air Pollutant Concentrations and Its Mechanism before and during the COVID-19 Periods: A Case Study from Guiyang, Guizhou Province

The lockdown during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic provides a scarce opportunity to assess the efficiency of air pollution mitigation. Herein, the monitoring data of air pollutants were thoroughly analyzed together with meteorological parameters to explore the impact of human activity on the multi-time scale changes of air pollutant concentrations in Guiyang city, located in Southwest China. The results show that the COVID-19 lockdown had different effects on the criteria air pollutants, i.e., PM2.5 (diameter ≤ 2.5 μm), PM10 (diameter ≤ 10 μm), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) concentrations. The lockdown caused a significant drop in NO2 concentration. During the first-level lockdown period, the NO2 concentration declined sharply by 8.41 μg·m−3 (45.68%). The decrease in NO concentration caused the “titration effect” to weaken, leading to a sharp increase in O3 concentration. Although human activities resumed partially and the “titration effect” enhanced certainly during the second-level lockdown period, the meteorological conditions became more conducive to the formation of O3 by photochemical reactions. Atmosphere oxidation was enhanced to promote the generation of secondary aerosols through gas–particle transitions, thus compensating for the reduced primary emission of PM2.5. The implication of this study is that the appropriate air pollution control policies must be initiated to suppress the secondary generation of both PM2.5 and O3.

Risk Assessment and Air Quality Study during Different Phases of COVID-19 Lockdown in an Urban Area of Klang Valley, Malaysia

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has had both positive and negative impacts on humans and the environment. In general, a positive impact can be seen on the environment, especially in regard to air quality. This positive impact on air quality around the world is a result of movement control orders (MCO) or lockdowns, which were carried out to reduce the cases of COVID-19 around the world. Nevertheless, data on the effects on air quality both during and post lockdown at local scales are still sparse. Here, we investigate changes in air quality during normal days, the MCOs (MCO 1, 2 and 3) and post MCOs, namely the Conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO) and the Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) in the Klang Valley region. In this study, we used the air sensor network AiRBOXSense that measures carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) at Petaling Jaya South (PJS), Kelana Jaya (KJ) and Kota Damansara (KD). The results showed that the daily average concentrations of CO and NO2 mostly decreased in the order of normal days > MCO (MCO 1, 2 and 3) > CMCO > RMCO. PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and O3 showed a decrease from the MCO to RMCO. PJS showed that air pollutant concentrations decreased from normal days to the lockdown phases. This clearly shows the effects of ‘work from home’ orders at all places in the PJS city. The greatest percentage reductions in air pollutants were observed during the change from normal days to MCO 1 (24% to 64%), while during MCO 1 to MCO 2, the concentrations were slightly increased during the changes of the lockdown phase, except for SO2 and NO2 over PJS. In KJ, most of the air pollutants decreased from MCO 1 to MCO 3 except for CO. However, the percentage reduction and increments of the gas pollutants were not consistent during the different phases of lockdown, and this effect was due to the sensor location—only 20 m from the main highway (vehicle emissions). The patterns of air pollutant concentrations over the KD site were similar to the PJS site; however, the percentage reduction and increases of PM2.5, O3, SO2 and CO were not consistent. We believe that local burning was the main contribution to these unstable patterns during the lockdown period. The cause of these different changes in concentrations may be due to the relaxation phases during the lockdown at each station, where most of the common activities, such as commuting and industrial activities changed in frequency from the MCO, CMCO and RMCO. Wind direction also affected the concentrations, for example, during the CMCO and RMCO, most of the pollutants were blowing in from the Southeast region, which mostly consists of a city center and industrial areas. There was a weak correlation between air pollutants and the temperature and relative humidity at all stations. Health risk assessment analysis showed that non-carcinogenic risk health quotient (HQ) values for the pollutants at all stations were less than 1, suggesting unlikely non-carcinogenic effects, except for SO2 (HQ > 1) in KJ. The air quality information showed that reductions in air pollutants can be achieved if traffic and industry emissions are strictly controlled.

Analysis of Temporal Variations of Air Pollutant Concentrations in Ogoni Area, Niger Delta Region, Nigeria

This study investigated the temporal variations of air pollutant concentrations in Ogoni area, Niger Delta, Nigeria. The study used hourly data measured over 8 hours for 12 months at selected locations within the area. The analyses were based on time series and time variations techniques in Openair packages of R programming software. The variations of air pollutant concentrations by time of day and days of week were simulated. Hours of the day, days of the week and monthly variations were graphically simulated. Variations in the mean concentrations of air pollutants by time were determined at 95 % confidence intervals. Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ground level Ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded permissible standards. Air pollutant concentrations showed increase in January, February, November and December compared to other months. Simulation showed that air pollutants varied significantly by hours-of-the-day and days-of-the-week and months-of-the-year. Analysis of temporal variability revealed that air pollutant concentrations increased during weekdays and decreased during weekends. The temporal variability of air pollutants in Ogoni area showed that anthropogenic activities were the main sources of air pollution in the area, therefore further studies are required to determine air pollutant dispersion pattern and evaluation the potential sources of air pollution in the area.

Phase Wise Variation of Criteria Pollutants across India during COVID-19 Lockdown

The COVID-19 epidemic forced many countries around the world to lockdown completely. This occlusion influenced the atmospheric composition positively due to reduced anthropogenic activities. Recently, many studies across India have shown how the COVID-19 lockdown has affected air quality in different cities. However, these studies did not examine the phased percentage variation in air pollutant concentrations across different states of India. In this study, percentage variation in the concentration of five criteria pollutant, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, CO and Ozone were studied for 13 states across India during four phases of COVID-19 lockdown. A significant decrease in air pollutant levels was observed in all four phases, with phase 1 and phase 2 reporting a maximum decrease. PM10 and PM2.5, CO and NO2 showed a decrease in concentration in all states. Ozone showed a mixed response, with both increase and decrease recorded across states. During the COVID-19 lockdown period in India, AOD levels were reduced by 10.25%. This study will certainly help regulators set the guidelines and mitigation measures for appropriate control of air pollutants in different states in future.