System Simulation of the Predatory Activities of Sea Lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) on Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush)
A stochastic dynamic model was developed to evaluate the simulated and empirical interactions between sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) and two lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) population structures, one without and the other with previous lamprey predation.An arithmetic increase in lampreys induced a geometric decline in trout, which was dependent on the number of age-classes and the mean weight of trout. Large trout, when present, were subject to most of the lamprey predation allowing survival of smaller trout. Lethality increased exponentially with lamprey size resulting in peak lake trout mortality during fall near the end of the lamprey’s feeding period. Lake trout scarring data could be used only as an index of lamprey abundance when trout:lamprey ratios and trout population structures were known. The simulation suggested that sea lampreys and lake trout could coexist if large trout are not removed by commercial fishing and if some exogenous factor controlled lamprey abundance.