The closed-subpopulation method and estimation of population size from mark-recapture and ancillary data

2000 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank AM Tuyttens
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Ancillary Data ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
Accuracy And Precision ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Flexible Framework ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Better Than

The algebraic relationships, underlying assumptions, and performance of the recently proposed closed-subpopulation method are compared with those of other commonly used methods for estimating the size of animal populations from mark-recapture records. In its basic format the closed-subpopulation method is similar to the Manly-Parr method and less restrictive than the Jolly-Seber method. Computer simulations indicate that the accuracy and precision of the population estimators generated by the basic closed-subpopulation method are almost comparable to those generated by the Jolly-Seber method, and generally better than those of the minimum-number-alive method. The performance of all these methods depends on the capture probability, the number of previous and subsequent trapping occasions, and whether the population is demographically closed or open. Violation of the assumption of equal catchability causes a negative bias that is more pronounced for the closed-subpopulation and Jolly-Seber estimators than for the minimum-number-alive. The closed-subpopulation method provides a simple and flexible framework for illustrating that the precision and accuracy of population-size estimates can be improved by incorporating evidence, other than mark-recapture data, of the presence of recognisable individuals in the population (from radiotelemetry, mortality records, or sightings, for example) and by exploiting specific characteristics of the population concerned.

Live-trapping of the northern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus krefftii): population-size estimates and effects on individuals

1995 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 741 ◽  
Author(s):  
SD Hoyle ◽  
AB Horsup ◽  
CN Johnson ◽  
DG Crossman ◽  
H McCallum
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Confidence Limit ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Population Size Estimate ◽  
Live Trapping ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Estimate Population Size ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Size Estimates

The northern hairy-nosed wombat, one of the most endangered large mammals known, occurs only in Epping Forest National Park, central Queensland. The results of a 3-stage trapping programme, carried out between 1985 and 1993, were used to estimate population size by means of three separate modelling approaches: minimum number alive (MNA), mark-recapture, and trapping effort. Trapping procedure varied among sessions, and each estimator was applied to sessions only where its use was appropriate. The population-size estimate for 1985-86 was 67 (trap effort) with MNA of 58; for 1988-89 it was 62 (Jolly-Seber mark-recapture estimate), with MNA of 48 and upper 95% confidence limit of 77; and for 1993 it was 65 (Chao mark-recapture and trap effort), with MNA of 43 and upper 95% confidence limit of 186 (Chao mark-recapture). No population trends were observed, although variability in estimates and wide confidence intervals meant that power to do so was limited. Trapping affected the health and behaviour of wombats. Animals that were trapped twice within 10 nights lost an average of 0.62 kg (P = 0.006) between captures. Wombats that were trapped twice within the first four nights of traps being set on a burrow showed less weight loss than those trapped for the second time after 5-7 nights (0.23 kg v. 1.54 kg). The effects of trapping appeared to remain with animals for some time, since animals trapped twice more than 30 nights apart and within six months weighed an average of 0.5 kg less (P = 0.013) on second capture. When areas were trapped twice in succession with a 3-week gap, population-size estimates were lower for the second period of trapping. Thus, some wombats may have temporarily left areas disturbed by trapping. The deleterious impact of trapping may be reduced by restricting trapping to periods of four nights. Trapping effectiveness may be increased by minimising disturbance immediately before trapping and by moving traps between periods of trapping.

Adult population dynamics and reproductive effort of the fishing spider Dolomedes triton (Araneae, Pisauridae) in central Alberta

1992 ◽  
Vol 70 (11) ◽  
pp. 2224-2233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred Zimmermann ◽  
John R. Spence
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Adult Longevity ◽  
Male Population ◽  
Male Mortality ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Dolomedes Triton

A combination of simple enumeration and more intensive Jolly–Seber and Manly–Parr mark–recapture estimation was required to give a complete picture of the population dynamics of adult Dolomedes triton on a small pond in central Alberta. The total number of spiders marked was 142 in 1986 and 210 in 1987, and annual adult emergence, using the population size estimates of the two mark–recapture methods, amounted to ca. 150 and 230 individuals in 1986 and 1987, respectively. The sex ratio was not different from 1:1 in 1986, but in 1987 more than twice as many males emerged than females. Males had significantly shorter observed residence times (life-spans) than females. Contrary to longevity estimates based on the survival probabilities given by the Jolly–Seber model, which were close to those based on enumeration, Manly–Parr survival estimates were strongly biased and even yielded impossible estimates of adult longevity. In both years the median date of male emergence preceded that of females by 5–10 days. Male population size decreased dramatically during the interval when the density of the female population increased, supporting the hypothesis that cannibalism by females is a major source of male mortality. Seventy and 55% of marked females produced egg sacs in 1986 and 1987, respectively. First egg sacs contained 472 ± 18.5 (SE) eggs. Four times as many nursery webs were found in 1986 as in 1987, suggesting that significant losses in female reproductive success occur during the period of egg sac care.

scholarly journals Population size and survivorship for juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) on their nursery grounds at a marine protected area in Brazil

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato Hajenius Aché de Freitas ◽  
Ricardo S. Rosa ◽  
Bradley M. Wetherbee ◽  
Samuel H. Gruber
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Marine Protected Area ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Direct Methods ◽  
Nursery Grounds ◽  
Negaprion Brevirostris ◽  
Animal Populations ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Lemon Sharks

Sharks face a number of obstacles for surviving their first several years of life and many species occupy nursery areas. Although estimates of survival, particularly for young age classes, are essential for assessing, monitoring and effectively managing animal populations, there have been relatively few calculations of survival within shark populations and even fewer estimates based on direct methods for sharks on their nursery grounds. We used tag-recapture methods to estimate the population size and survival of juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) on their nursery grounds at Atol das Rocas, a marine protected area in Brazil. Sharks were sampled from1999 to 2003. Population size estimates ranged from 12 to 100 juvenile sharks and survival estimates ranged between 24-54% with a mean of 44.6% over the most robust sampling periods. The population of juvenile lemon sharks declined over the course of our study, whereas survival rates may have increased over the same time period. Even a modest level of fishing and removal of mature females in adjacent areas may dramatically affect small populations of sharks within a small and isolated nursery such as Atol das Rocas. The lower survival rates and population size at Atol das Rocas could be the result of differences in physical characteristics of this nursery in comparison to others used by lemon sharks in the northwestern Atlantic. Such comparatively lower populational parameters suggest that the population of young lemon sharks is fragile at the Atol das Rocas nursery.

The problem of unequal catchability in mark–recapture estimation of small mammal populations

1983 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 922-927 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Jolly ◽  
J. M. Dickson
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Small Mammal ◽  
Negative Bias ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Complete Enumeration ◽  
Open Population ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Future Work

The problem of unequal catchability among individuals in an open population is discussed in regard to estimates of population size. Properties of the Jolly–Seber (J–S) estimate are clarified and comparisons are made with minimum number alive (MNA) techniques which attempt complete enumeration of the population. The MNA is shown to be seriously biased under the assumption of equal catchability and to have a proportionately much larger negative bias than the J–S estimate under unequal catchability. Suggestions are made for future work.

scholarly journals Population size estimates of pink river dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) using mark-recapture methods on photo-identification

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catalina Gómez-Salazar ◽  
Hal Whitehead ◽  
Fernando Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Photo Identification ◽  
Population Size Estimate ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Inia Geoffrensis ◽  
Colombian Amazon ◽  
Size Estimates

Population size estimates of pink river dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) are critical to assess the conservation status of this species and the impacts of increasing human stressors in freshwater ecosystems. Photo-identifications of Inia dolphins were collected between February 2007 and August 2009 in two locations of the Colombian Amazon and Orinoco river basins. Population sizes of Inia were obtained by using the closed (Petersen) mark-recapture model on photo-identifications. The total population size estimate for right/left side individuals was 129/71 Inia dolphins (CV=0.36/0.35) in the Amazon location and 125/58 Inia dolphins (CV=0.77/0.69) in the Orinoco location. The survey and analysis protocols were designed to try to meet mark-recapture assumptions. However, photo-identification was incomplete in both study areas, and there could be recruitment and unequal probabilities of capture due to preferences of individuals for certain areas. Further effort should be focused towards expanding the photo-identification catalogues and creating long-term monitoring programs.

Fish population size estimates from a small intermittently open estuary in South Africa, based on mark-recapture techniques

2001 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 283 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. D. Cowley ◽  
A. K. Whitfield
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Fish Population ◽  
Minimum Size ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Estimator ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Size Estimates

Population sizes of the migratory marine-spawning fishes in the small intermittently open East Kleinemonde Estuary (33º32′S, 27º03′E) were estimated during two independent mark–recapture studies between 1994 and 1996. Seines were used to sample fishes during the closed-mouth phase of the estuary. All individuals above a stipulated minimum size were marked by fin-clipping. Population estimates were obtained by use of two mark–recapture models (Schnabel and a maximum-likelihood estimator) and a derived method. The total population size was estimated at ~18 000 and ~133 000 individuals during the two study periods respectively. The large temporal (interannual) variability was ascribed to both abiotic (estuary mouth conditions) and biotic-conditions. The dominant species during both periods was Rhabdosargus holubi, which accounted for ~75% and ~80%of the total population of marine fishes in the estuary. The success of this species is attributed to an extended breeding season and the ability to recruit during mouth overwash events.

scholarly journals Effects of Social Organization, Trap Arrangement and Density, Sampling Scale, and Population Density on Bias in Population Size Estimation Using Some Common Mark-Recapture Estimators

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manan Gupta ◽  
Amitabh Joshi ◽  
T. N. C. Vidya
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Social Organization ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Robust Design ◽  
Population Size Estimation ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Social Species ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Size Estimates

AbstractMark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Application Fuzzy Logic System for Accurate Sheet Trim Shower Position

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 186-192
Author(s):  
Yudi Wibawa
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Controller ◽  
Dc Motor ◽  
Automation System ◽  
Paper Making ◽  
System A ◽  
Accurate Position ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Logic System

This paper aims to study for accurate sheet trim shower position for paper making process. An accurate position is required in an automation system. A mathematical model of DC motor is used to obtain a transfer function between shaft position and applied voltage. PID controller with Ziegler-Nichols and Hang-tuning rule and Fuzzy logic controller for controlling position accuracy are required. The result reference explains it that the FLC is better than other methods and performance characteristics also improve the control of DC motor.

Estimating the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: A two-survey capture-recapture exercise (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abu Abdul-Quader
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Illicit Drugs ◽  
People Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
The City ◽  
Size Estimates

BACKGROUND Population size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam relied on the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package and reports from the city police department. The two estimates vary widely. OBJECTIVE To estimate the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam METHODS Using Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), we implemented two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017 in 7 out of 24 districts. The study included men or women aged at least 18 years who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days and who had lived in the city the past six months. We calculated two sets of size estimates, the first assumed that all participants in each survey round resided in the district where the survey was conducted, the second, used the district of residence as reported by the participant. District estimates were summed to obtain an aggregate estimate for the seven districts. To calculate the city total, we weighted the population size estimates for each district by the inverse of the stratum specific sampling probabilities. RESULTS The first estimate resulted in a population size of 19,155 (95% CI: 17,006–25,039). The second one generated a smaller population size estimate of 12,867 (95% CI: 11,312–17,393). CONCLUSIONS The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided two disparate estimates of PWID in HCMC. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

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