Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1482004
Author(s):  
Q.-B. Lu

In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850–1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that "the climate system takes centuries to millennia to fully equilibrate" is lack of scientific basis. Finally, their model calculations including an additional fitting parameter do not reduce the discrepancy with observed GMST data even after their adjustments. Instead, their modeled results give a sharp GMST rise over the past 16 years, which obviously disagrees with the observed data.

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 1350073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q.-B. LU

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O 3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl 4 and HCFCs), CO 2, total O 3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O 3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O 3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O 3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 ~ 25 % of the Antarctic O 3 hole is found, while no recovery of O 3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO 2 concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 ~ 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 ~ 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O 3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O 3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.


2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1269-1274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Forrest G. Lacey ◽  
Daven K. Henze ◽  
Colin J. Lee ◽  
Aaron van Donkelaar ◽  
Randall V. Martin

Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of −37 mK (11 mK to −85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000–204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000–268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of −77 mK (20 mK to −278 mK) in 2050, which increases to −118 mK (−11 mK to −335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO2 response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) amount to ∼22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100.


2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (D20) ◽  
pp. 23947-23963 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hansen ◽  
R. Ruedy ◽  
M. Sato ◽  
M. Imhoff ◽  
W. Lawrence ◽  
...  

Pramana ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M A El-Borie ◽  
A A Thabet ◽  
E S El-Mallah ◽  
M Abd El-Zaher ◽  
A A Bishara

2008 ◽  
Vol 105 (36) ◽  
pp. 13252-13257 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mann ◽  
Z. Zhang ◽  
M. K. Hughes ◽  
R. S. Bradley ◽  
S. K. Miller ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 503-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.B. Mao ◽  
Y. Ma ◽  
X.L. Tan ◽  
X.Y. Shen ◽  
G. Liu ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Wenbin Sun ◽  
Qingxiang Li ◽  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Jiayi Cheng ◽  
Zhaoyang Song ◽  
...  

AbstractBased on C-LSAT2.0, using high- and low-frequency components reconstruction methods, combined with observation constraint masking, a reconstructed C-LSAT2.0 with 756 ensemble members from the 1850s to 2018 has been developed. These ensemble versions have been merged with the ERSSTv5 ensemble dataset, and an upgraded version of the CMST-Interim dataset with 5° × 5° resolution has been developed. The CMST-Interim dataset has significantly improved the coverage rate of global surface temperature data. After reconstruction, the data coverage before 1950 increased from 78%–81% of the original CMST to 81%–89%. The total coverage after 1955 reached about 93%, including more than 98% in the Northern Hemisphere and 81%–89% in the Southern Hemisphere. Through the reconstruction ensemble experiments with different parameters, a good basis is provided for more systematic uncertainty assessment of C-LSAT2.0 and CMST-Interim. In comparison with the original CMST, the global mean surface temperatures are estimated to be cooler in the second half of 19th century and warmer during the 21st century, which shows that the global warming trend is further amplified. The global warming trends are updated from 0.085 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.128 ± 0.006°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.089 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.137 ± 0.007°C (10 yr)−1, respectively, since the start and the second half of 20th century.


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