scholarly journals The Assessment of Global Surface Temperature Change from 1850s: The C-LSAT2.0 Ensemble and the CMST-Interim Datasets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenbin Sun ◽  
Qingxiang Li ◽  
Boyin Huang ◽  
Jiayi Cheng ◽  
Zhaoyang Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Reconstruction Methods ◽  
Frequency Components ◽  
Global Surface

AbstractBased on C-LSAT2.0, using high- and low-frequency components reconstruction methods, combined with observation constraint masking, a reconstructed C-LSAT2.0 with 756 ensemble members from the 1850s to 2018 has been developed. These ensemble versions have been merged with the ERSSTv5 ensemble dataset, and an upgraded version of the CMST-Interim dataset with 5° × 5° resolution has been developed. The CMST-Interim dataset has significantly improved the coverage rate of global surface temperature data. After reconstruction, the data coverage before 1950 increased from 78%–81% of the original CMST to 81%–89%. The total coverage after 1955 reached about 93%, including more than 98% in the Northern Hemisphere and 81%–89% in the Southern Hemisphere. Through the reconstruction ensemble experiments with different parameters, a good basis is provided for more systematic uncertainty assessment of C-LSAT2.0 and CMST-Interim. In comparison with the original CMST, the global mean surface temperatures are estimated to be cooler in the second half of 19th century and warmer during the 21st century, which shows that the global warming trend is further amplified. The global warming trends are updated from 0.085 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.128 ± 0.006°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.089 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.137 ± 0.007°C (10 yr)−1, respectively, since the start and the second half of 20th century.

scholarly journals Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (22) ◽  
pp. 8781-8786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Back ◽  
Karen Russ ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Kuniaki Inoue ◽  
Jiaxu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Global Water

Abstract This study analyzes the response of global water vapor to global warming in a series of fully coupled climate model simulations. The authors find that a roughly 7% K−1 rate of increase of water vapor with global surface temperature is robust only for rapid anthropogenic-like climate change. For slower warming that occurred naturally in the past, the Southern Ocean has time to equilibrate, producing a different pattern of surface warming, so that water vapor increases at only 4.2% K−1. This lower rate of increase of water vapor with warming is not due to relative humidity changes or differences in mean lower-tropospheric temperature. A temperature of over 80°C would be required in the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship to match the 4.2% K−1 rate of increase. Instead, the low rate of increase is due to spatially heterogeneous warming. During slower global warming, there is enhanced warming at southern high latitudes, and hence less warming in the tropics per kelvin of global surface temperature increase. This leads to a smaller global water vapor increase, because most of the atmospheric water vapor is in the tropics. A formula is proposed that applies to general warming scenarios. This study also examines the response of global-mean precipitation and the meridional profile of precipitation minus evaporation and compares the latter to thermodynamic scalings. It is found that global-mean precipitation changes are remarkably robust between rapid and slow warming. Thermodynamic scalings for the rapid- and slow-warming zonal-mean precipitation are similar, but the precipitation changes are significantly different, suggesting that circulation changes are important in driving these differences.

scholarly journals Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1269-1274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Forrest G. Lacey ◽  
Daven K. Henze ◽  
Colin J. Lee ◽  
Aaron van Donkelaar ◽  
Randall V. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Solid Fuel ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Ambient Air Pollution ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Global Surface

Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of −37 mK (11 mK to −85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000–204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000–268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of −77 mK (20 mK to −278 mK) in 2050, which increases to −118 mK (−11 mK to −335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO2 response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) amount to ∼22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100.

scholarly journals A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change

2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (D20) ◽  
pp. 23947-23963 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Hansen ◽  
R. Ruedy ◽  
M. Sato ◽  
M. Imhoff ◽  
W. Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1482004
Author(s):  
Q.-B. Lu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Radiation Physics ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Global Surface

In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850–1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that "the climate system takes centuries to millennia to fully equilibrate" is lack of scientific basis. Finally, their model calculations including an additional fitting parameter do not reduce the discrepancy with observed GMST data even after their adjustments. Instead, their modeled results give a sharp GMST rise over the past 16 years, which obviously disagrees with the observed data.

scholarly journals Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 503-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.B. Mao ◽  
Y. Ma ◽  
X.L. Tan ◽  
X.Y. Shen ◽  
G. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Modis Data ◽  
Global Surface Temperature ◽  
Global Surface
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