Detecting and Predicting Tipping Points

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (08) ◽  
pp. 1930022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyi Peng ◽  
Michael Small ◽  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Jack Murdoch Moore
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Logistic Map ◽  
Pitchfork Bifurcation ◽  
Permutation Entropy ◽  
Dynamical Regime ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Edge Betweenness ◽  
Network Methods ◽  
Entropy Of Transition ◽  
Transition Networks

Tipping points are sudden, and sometimes irreversible and catastrophic, changes in a system’s dynamical regime. Complex networks are now widely used in the analysis of time series from a complex system. In this paper, we investigate the scope of network methods to indicate tipping points. In particular, we verify that the permutation entropy of transition networks constructed from time series observations of the logistic map can distinguish periodic and chaotic regimes and indicate bifurcations. The permutation entropy of transition networks, the mean edge betweenness of visibility graphs and the number of code words in compression networks, are each shown to indicate the onset of transition of a pitchfork bifurcation system. Our study shows that network methods are effective in detecting transitions. Network-based forecasts can be applied to models of real systems, as we illustrate by considering a lake eutrophication model.

scholarly journals A Novel Measure Inspired by Lyapunov Exponents for the Characterization of Dynamics in State-Transition Networks

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Bulcsú Sándor ◽  
Bence Schneider ◽  
Zsolt I. Lázár ◽  
Mária Ercsey-Ravasz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Coarse Graining ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Entropy Of Transition ◽  
Transition Networks

The combination of network sciences, nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis provides novel insights and analogies between the different approaches to complex systems. By combining the considerations behind the Lyapunov exponent of dynamical systems and the average entropy of transition probabilities for Markov chains, we introduce a network measure for characterizing the dynamics on state-transition networks with special focus on differentiating between chaotic and cyclic modes. One important property of this Lyapunov measure consists of its non-monotonous dependence on the cylicity of the dynamics. Motivated by providing proper use cases for studying the new measure, we also lay out a method for mapping time series to state transition networks by phase space coarse graining. Using both discrete time and continuous time dynamical systems the Lyapunov measure extracted from the corresponding state-transition networks exhibits similar behavior to that of the Lyapunov exponent. In addition, it demonstrates a strong sensitivity to boundary crisis suggesting applicability in predicting the collapse of chaos.

EFFECTS OF TREND AND PERIODICITY ON THE CORRELATION DIMENSION AND THE LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS

2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3679-3687 ◽  
Author(s):  
AYDIN A. CECEN ◽  
CAHIT ERKAL
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Correlation Dimension ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Logistic Map ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
The Impact

We present a critical remark on the pitfalls of calculating the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent from time series data when trend and periodicity exist. We consider a special case where a time series Zi can be expressed as the sum of two subsystems so that Zi = Xi + Yi and at least one of the subsystems is deterministic. We show that if the trend and periodicity are not properly removed, correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponent estimations yield misleading results, which can severely compromise the results of diagnostic tests and model identification. We also establish an analytic relationship between the largest Lyapunov exponents of the subsystems and that of the whole system. In addition, the impact of a periodic parameter perturbation on the Lyapunov exponent for the logistic map and the Lorenz system is discussed.

scholarly journals Evaluating the performance of multivariate indicators of resilience loss

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Els Weinans ◽  
Rick Quax ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Ingrid A. van de Leemput
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
Resilience Indicators

AbstractVarious complex systems, such as the climate, ecosystems, and physical and mental health can show large shifts in response to small changes in their environment. These ‘tipping points’ are notoriously hard to predict based on trends. However, in the past 20 years several indicators pointing to a loss of resilience have been developed. These indicators use fluctuations in time series to detect critical slowing down preceding a tipping point. Most of the existing indicators are based on models of one-dimensional systems. However, complex systems generally consist of multiple interacting entities. Moreover, because of technological developments and wearables, multivariate time series are becoming increasingly available in different fields of science. In order to apply the framework of resilience indicators to multivariate time series, various extensions have been proposed. Not all multivariate indicators have been tested for the same types of systems and therefore a systematic comparison between the methods is lacking. Here, we evaluate the performance of the different multivariate indicators of resilience loss in different scenarios. We show that there is not one method outperforming the others. Instead, which method is best to use depends on the type of scenario the system is subject to. We propose a set of guidelines to help future users choose which multivariate indicator of resilience is best to use for their particular system.

Comparing different approaches to compute Permutation Entropy with coarse time series

2019 ◽  
Vol 513 ◽  
pp. 635-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Traversaro ◽  
Nicolás Ciarrocchi ◽  
Florencia Pollo Cattaneo ◽  
Francisco Redelico
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Permutation Entropy

The modified permutation entropy-based independence test of time series

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (10) ◽  
pp. 2877-2897
Author(s):  
Emad Ashtari Nezhad ◽  
Yadollah Waghei ◽  
G. R. Mohtashami Borzadaran ◽  
H. R. Nilli Sani ◽  
Hadi Alizadeh Noughabi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Permutation Entropy ◽  
Independence Test

Generalized Cumulative Residual Entropy of Time Series Based on Permutation Patterns

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150055
Author(s):  
Qin Zhou ◽  
Pengjian Shang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Permutation Entropy ◽  
Residual Entropy ◽  
Permutation Patterns ◽  
Cumulative Residual Entropy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cumulative Residual ◽  
Different Characteristics

Cumulative residual entropy (CRE) has been suggested as a new measure to quantify uncertainty of nonlinear time series signals. Combined with permutation entropy and Rényi entropy, we introduce a generalized measure of CRE at multiple scales, namely generalized cumulative residual entropy (GCRE), and further propose a modification of GCRE procedure by the weighting scheme — weighted generalized cumulative residual entropy (WGCRE). The GCRE and WGCRE methods are performed on the synthetic series to study properties of parameters and verify the validity of measuring complexity of the series. After that, the GCRE and WGCRE methods are applied to the US, European and Chinese stock markets. Through data analysis and statistics comparison, the proposed methods can effectively distinguish stock markets with different characteristics.

Phase Transitions and Resilience in Physical and Psychological Health

2020 ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
Marcel G. M. Olde Rikkert ◽  
Noemi Schuurman ◽  
René J. F. Melis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Psychological Health ◽  
Wearable Devices ◽  
Complexity Science ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Mental Processes ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Physical And Psychological Health ◽  
Aging Societies

Complexity science methods offer new opportunities for prognosis and treatment in healthcare and clinical psychology because of the increasing need for integration of the detailed knowledge of physiological and psychological subsystems and the increasing prevalence of multiple disease conditions in our aging societies. This chapter explains how the frequently occurring acute transitions and related tipping points in physical and mental processes in these populations can be monitored with time series and dynamical indicators of resilience. The authors introduce slowing down of recovery, increase in variance and autocorrelation, and increasing cross-correlation between subsystem time series as valid predictors of the proximity of tipping points in diseases such as depression, heart failure and syncope. Using wearable devices, together with these complex systems analyses, yields new methods of forecasting and may improve resilience of individual persons and their mental or physical (organ) subsystems

scholarly journals Embedded Dimension and Time Series Length. Practical Influence on Permutation Entropy and Its Applications

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cuesta-Frau ◽  
Juan Pablo Murillo-Escobar ◽  
Diana Alexandra Orrego ◽  
Edilson Delgado-Trejos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Permutation Entropy ◽  
Series Length ◽  
Stability Point ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Model Time Series ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Forbidden Patterns ◽  
Short Time

Permutation Entropy (PE) is a time series complexity measure commonly used in a variety of contexts, with medicine being the prime example. In its general form, it requires three input parameters for its calculation: time series length N, embedded dimension m, and embedded delay τ . Inappropriate choices of these parameters may potentially lead to incorrect interpretations. However, there are no specific guidelines for an optimal selection of N, m, or τ , only general recommendations such as N > > m ! , τ = 1 , or m = 3 , … , 7 . This paper deals specifically with the study of the practical implications of N > > m ! , since long time series are often not available, or non-stationary, and other preliminary results suggest that low N values do not necessarily invalidate PE usefulness. Our study analyses the PE variation as a function of the series length N and embedded dimension m in the context of a diverse experimental set, both synthetic (random, spikes, or logistic model time series) and real–world (climatology, seismic, financial, or biomedical time series), and the classification performance achieved with varying N and m. The results seem to indicate that shorter lengths than those suggested by N > > m ! are sufficient for a stable PE calculation, and even very short time series can be robustly classified based on PE measurements before the stability point is reached. This may be due to the fact that there are forbidden patterns in chaotic time series, not all the patterns are equally informative, and differences among classes are already apparent at very short lengths.

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