A Proposal for the Improvement of Project's Cost Predictability Using Earned Value Management and Historical Data of Cost — An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (01) ◽  
pp. 27-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adler Diniz de Souza ◽  
Ana Regina Cavalcanti da Rocha ◽  
Djenane Cristina Silveira dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Software Development ◽  
Performance Data ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Traditional Technique ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Performance Indexes

Although the Earned Value Management (EVM) technique has been used by several companies in various industrial sectors (software development, construction, aerospace, aeronautics, among others) for over 35 years to predict time and cost outcomes, many studies have found vulnerabilities, including: (i) cost performance data do not always have normal distribution, which makes reliable projections difficult; (ii) instability of cost performance indexes during the execution of projects, (iii) there is a worsening tendency in cost performance indexes when project approaches termination. This paper proposes an extension of the EVM technique through the integration of historical cost performance data of processes as a means to improve the project's cost predictability. The proposed technique was evaluated through an empirical study, which evaluated the implementation of the proposed technique in 22 software development projects. The proposed technique has been applied in real projects with the aim of evaluating the accuracy and variation compared to the traditional technique. Hypotheses tests with 95% significance level were performed, and the proposed technique was more accurate and more precise than the traditional technique for calculating the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Estimates at Completion (EAC).

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Use of Laney U Chart as a Visual Schedule Tracker to Graphically Monitor the Schedule Performance Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
Jayet Moon
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Control Charts ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Schedule Risk ◽  
Schedule Performance ◽  
Visual Schedule

AbstractThe intent of this article is to explore a mathematically sound method to graphically monitor schedule performance index (SPI) such that it enables the project manager to take objective data based decisions regarding the progress of the project schedule. The article aims to leverage the theory and application of control charts, specifically the U chart and Laney U chart and test its applicability to earned value management by trending schedule performance index on a time series chart. Off the shelf software, MinitabTM was used to generate the control charts based on earned value and planned value. While this paper proves that the Laney U chart, with correct interpretation, acts as an effective trigger-based tool for schedule risk management, it also generates further avenues for research into similar use of control charts for cost performance and other quality indices.

scholarly journals Predicting Earned Value Indexes in Residential complexes’ Construction Projects Using Artificial Neural Network Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
ibraheem Aidan ◽  
Firas Jaber ◽  
Duaa Al-Jeznawi ◽  
Faiq Al-Zwainy
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Great Accuracy ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance

The importance of this study may be defined by using the smart techniques to earned value indicators of residential buildings projects in Republic of Iraq, only one development intelligent forecasting model was presented to predict Schedule Performance Index (SPI), Cost Performance Index (CPI), and To Complete Cost Performance Indicator (TCPI) are defined as the dependent. The approach is principally influenced by the determining numerous factors which effect on the earned value management, that involves Iraqi historical data. In addition, six independent variables (F1: BAC, Budget at Completion., F2: AC, Actual Cost., F3, A%, Actual Percentage., F4: EV, Earned Value. F5: P%, Planning Percentage., and F6: PV, Planning Value) were arbitrarily designated and satisfactorily described for per construction project. It was found that ANN has the capability to envisage the dust storm with a great accuracy. The correlation coefficient (R) has been 90.00%, and typical accuracy percentage has been 89.00%.

Stability properties in department of defense contracts: Answering the controversy

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob L. Petter ◽  
Jonathan D. Ritschel ◽  
Edward D. White
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Stability Properties ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Stability Definition ◽  
Defense Contracts

Delineating where stability occurs in a contract provides the window of opportunity for procurement officials to positively affect cost and schedule outcomes. While the concept of a Cost Performance Index (CPI) "stability rule" has been routinely cited by Earned Value Management (EVM) authors since the early 1990's, more recent research questions the veracity of this stability rule. This paper resolves the controversy by demonstrating that the definition of stability matters. We find a morphing of the stability definition over time, with three separate definitions permeating the literature. Next, an analysis of Department of Defense contracts for both cost and schedule stability properties finds that the veracity of the stability rule is intricately tied to the definition used.

scholarly journals Predicting Performance Measurement of Residential Buildings Using an Artificial Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 461-476
Author(s):  
Salah J. Mohammed ◽  
Hesham A. Abdel-khalek ◽  
Sherif M. Hafez
Keyword(s):  
Performance Index ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Machine Intelligence ◽  
Control Technique ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Artificial Neural

Application Earned Value Management (EVM) as a construction project control technique is not very common in the Republic of Iraq, in spite of the benefit from EVA to the schedule control and cost control of construction projects. One of the goals of the present study is the employment machine intelligence techniques in the estimation of earned value; also this study contributes to extend the cognitive content of study fields associated with the earned value, and the results of this study are considered a robust incentive to try and do complementary studies, or to simulate a similar study in alternative new technologies. This paper is aiming at introducing a novel and alternative method of applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques (AIT) for earned value management of the construction projects through using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to build mathematical models to be used to estimate the Schedule Performance Index (SPI), Cost Performance Index (CPI) and to Complete Cost Performance Indicator (TCPI) in Iraqi residential buildings before and at execution stage through using web-based software to perform the calculations in the estimation quickly, accurately and without effort. ANN technique was utilized to produce new prediction models by applying the Backpropagation algorithm through Neuframe software. Finally, the results showed that the ANN technique shows excellent results of estimation when it is compared with MLR techniques. The results were interpreted in terms of Average Accuracy (AA%) equal to 83.09, 90.83, and 82.88%, also, correlation coefficient (R) equal to 90.95, 93.00, and 92.30% for SPI, CPI and TCPI respectively. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091666 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals ANALISIS KINERJA PROYEK “Y”MENGGUNAKAN METODE EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT (Studi Kasus di PT Asian Sealand Engineering)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-78
Author(s):  
Elvi Wahyuni ◽  
Bambang Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
Work Performance ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Performance ◽  
Cost Variance ◽  
Offshore Industry ◽  
Job Specification ◽  
A Company

PT Asia Sealand Engineering is a company engaged in offshore industry services. This study aims to profit. (EVM). The EVM concept of the three indicators is the Work Schedule Budget (BCWS), Work Performance Cost Budget (BCWP) and Actual Cost of Work Performance (ACWP). From these indicators are then analyzed to Cost Variance (CV), Cost Performance Index (CPI), Variance Schedule (SV) and Index Performance Schedule (SPI). After these talent indexes can be calculated Estimate at Completion (EAC), Estimate to Complete (ETC) and Time Estimate (TE). The project under study is project "Y" module 301 train 3, bacth 5 with job specification in Structure section. The results show that the project cost overrun and sechedule overrun. This means focusing the project down. Estimated cost of project lit (ETC) is Rp. 710.980.113.00. Total total cost can be seen from the calculation of EAC is Rp. 7.595.984.113, - and the estimated time to generate TE is 302 days.

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