THREE-DIMENSIONAL GROUND MOTION SIMULATIONS FOR LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT WITH DYNAMIC AND OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS

2001 ◽  
Vol 09 (03) ◽  
pp. 1203-1214 ◽  
Author(s):  
KIM B. OLSEN
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Staggered Grid ◽  
Near Fault ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
3D Velocity Model ◽  
Kinematic Inversion

I have simulated 0–0.5 Hz viscoelastic ground motion in Los Angeles from M 7.5 earthquakes on the San Andreas fault using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference method. Two scenarios are considered: (a) a southeast propagating and (b) a northwest propagating rupture along a 170-km long stretch of the fault near Los Angeles in a 3D velocity model. The scenarios use variable slip and rise time distributions inferred from the kinematic inversion results for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. The spatially variable static slip distribution used in this study, unlike that modeled in a recent study,1 is in agreement with constraints provided by rupture dynamics. I find peak ground velocities for (a) and (b) of 49 cm/s and 67 cm/s, respectively, near the fault. The near-fault peak motions for scenario (a) are smaller compared to previous estimates from 3D modeling for both rough and smooth faults.1,2 The lower near-fault peak motions are in closer agreements with constraints from precarious rocks located near the fault. Peak velocities in Los Angeles are about 30% larger for (b) 45 cm/s compared to those for (a) 35 cm/s.

Three-dimensional finite-difference modeling of the San Andreas fault: Source parameterization and ground-motion levels

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-897
Author(s):  
Robert W. Graves
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Rise Time ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Los Angeles Basin ◽  
Near Fault ◽  
Long Period ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Fault Region

Abstract Olsen et al. (1995) recently simulated an Mw 7.75 earthquake on the San Andreas fault, predicting long-period (T > 2.5 sec) ground velocities of 140 cm/sec in the Los Angeles basin, about 60 km from the fault. These motions are much larger than estimates derived from empirical relations or other numerical simulations. Standard area-magnitude relations predict that the 170 × 16 km fault used in the simulations would produce an Mw 7.5 earthquake, giving a moment of 2.0 × 1027 dyne-cm, which is 2.4 times smaller than the moment used by Olsen et al. (1995). Further, self-similar scaling predicts a rise time of 3 sec for an Mw 7.75 event and 2.2 sec for an Mw 7.5 event. The filtered impulse slip function used by Olsen et al. (1995) has an effective rise time of 1.6 sec, yielding a response that is about 2 times larger than expected for periods less than 5 sec. This combination of high seismic moment and short rise time, along with the use of a uniform slip distribution, leads to the extreme ground-motion levels predicted by Olsen et al. (1995). To quantify the sensitivity of the long-period ground-motion response to source parameterization, we have performed 3D finite-difference (FD) simulations using various combinations of seismic moment, source rise time, and slip heterogeneity. These calculations incorporate the same grid dimensions, fault size, and bandwidth employed by Olsen et al. (1995). With a moment of 2.0 ՠ1027 dyne-cm, a rise time of 2 sec, and a smoothly heterogeneous slip distribution, we simulate peak long-period ground velocities of 155 cm/sec in the near-fault region and 40 cm/sec in the Los Angeles basin. These values are much closer to (although still higher than) empirical predictions. A uniform slip distribution produces the largest peak motions, both in the near-fault region and in the Los Angeles basin, whereas a rough asperity slip distribution noticeably reduces the maximum near-fault ground velocities. Our results indicate that the accurate simulation of long-period ground motions requires a realistic source parameterization, including appropriate choices of seismic moment and rise time, as well as the use of spatial and temporal variations in slip distribution.

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Interpretation of seismic reflection profiling data for the structure of the San Andreas fault zone

1983 ◽  
Vol 73 (6A) ◽  
pp. 1701-1720
Author(s):  
R. Feng ◽  
T. V. McEvilly
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Seismic Reflection ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Seismic Reflection Profile ◽  
Lateral Velocity ◽  
Zone Structure ◽  
Ray Method ◽  
Velocity Change ◽  
San Andreas

Abstract A seismic reflection profile crossing the San Andreas fault zone in central California was conducted in 1978. Results are complicated by the extreme lateral heterogeneity and low velocities in the fault zone. Other evidence for severe lateral velocity change across the fault zone lies in hypocenter bias and nodal plane distortion for earthquakes on the fault. Conventional interpretation and processing methods for reflection data are hard-pressed in this situation. Using the inverse ray method of May and Covey (1981), with an initial model derived from a variety of data and the impedance contrasts inferred from the preserved amplitude stacked section, an iterative inversion process yields a velocity model which, while clearly nonunique, is consistent with the various lines of evidence on the fault zone structure.

scholarly journals Displacement on the San Andreas fault subsequent to the 1966 Parkfield earthquake

1968 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1955-1973
Author(s):  
Stewart W. Smith ◽  
Max Wyss
Keyword(s):  
Shear Stress ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Fault Surface ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Fault Displacement ◽  
Displacement Measurements

ABSTRACT Immediately following the 1966 Parkfield earthquake a continuing program of fault displacement measurements was undertaken, and several types of instruments were installed in the fault zone to monitor ground motion. In the year subsequent to the earthquake a maximum of at least 20 cm of displacement occurred on a 30 km section of the San Andreas fault, which far exceeded the surficial displacement at the time of the earthquake. The rate of displacement decreased logarithmically during this period in a manner similar to that of the decrease in aftershock activity. After the initial high rate of activity it could be seen that most of the displacement was occurring in 4–6 day epochs of rapid creep following local aftershocks. The variation of fault displacement along the surface trace was measured and shown to be consistent with a vertidal fault surface 44 km long and 14 km deep, along which a shear stress of 2.4 bars was relieved.

scholarly journals Dynamic models of earthquake rupture along branch faults of the eastern San Gorgonio Pass region in California using complex fault structure

Geosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 474-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roby Douilly ◽  
David D. Oglesby ◽  
Michele L. Cooke ◽  
Jennifer L. Hatch
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Fault Geometry ◽  
Regional Stress ◽  
Coachella Valley ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Valley Segment

Abstract Geologic data suggest that the Coachella Valley segment of the southern San Andreas fault (southern California, USA) is past its average recurrence time period. At its northern edge, this right-lateral fault segment branches into the Mission Creek and Banning strands of the San Andreas fault. Depending on how rupture propagates through this region, there is the possibility of a throughgoing rupture that could lead to the channeling of damaging seismic energy into the Los Angeles Basin. The fault structures and potential rupture scenarios on these two strands differ significantly, which highlights the need to determine which strand provides a more likely rupture path and the circumstances that control this rupture path. In this study, we examine the effect of different assumptions about fault geometry and initial stress pattern on the dynamic rupture process to test multiple rupture scenarios and thus investigate the most likely path(s) of a rupture that starts on the Coachella Valley segment. We consider three types of fault geometry based on the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model, and we create a three-dimensional finite-element mesh for each of them. These three meshes are then incorporated into the finite-element method code FaultMod to compute a physical model for the rupture dynamics. We use a slip-weakening friction law, and consider different assumptions of background stress, such as constant tractions and regional stress regimes with different orientations. Both the constant and regional stress distributions show that rupture from the Coachella Valley segment is more likely to branch to the Mission Creek than to the Banning fault strand. The fault connectivity at this branch system seems to have a significant impact on the likelihood of a throughgoing rupture, with potentially significant impacts for ground motion and seismic hazard both locally and in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area.

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