Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for North Tabriz Fault

The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the new methods in estimating the amount of possible displacement in the area at the hazard of causal fault rupture. In this study, using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method introduced by Youngs et al., 2003, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. By considering the strike-slip mechanism of the North Tabriz fault and using the earthquake method, the probability of displacement due to surface ruptures caused by 1721 and 1780 North Tabriz fault earthquakes has been explored. These events were associated with 50 and 60 km of surface rupture, respectively. The 50–60 km long section of the North Tabriz fault was selected as the source of possible surface rupture. We considered two scenarios according to possible displacements, return periods, and magnitudes which are reported in paleoseismic studies of the North Tabriz fault. As the first scenario, possible displacement, return period, and magnitude was selected between zero to 4.5; 645 years and Mw~7.7, respectively. In the second scenario, possible displacement, return period and magnitude were selected between zero to 7.1, 300 years, and Mw~7.3, respectively. For both mentioned scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the rate of exceedance 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the principle possible displacements (on fault) of the North Tabriz fault have been estimated. For the first and second scenarios, the maximum probabilistic displacement of the North Tabriz fault at a rate of 5 % in 50 years is estimated to be 186 and 230 cm. Also, mentioned displacements for 5 % exceedance in 475 years and 2475 years in both return periods of 645 and 300 years, are estimated at 469 and 655 cm.

Potential Fault Displacement Hazard Assessment Using Stochastic Source Models: A Retrospective Evaluation for the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake

Surface fault displacement due to an earthquake affects buildings and infrastructure in the near-fault area significantly. Although approaches for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis have been developed and applied in practice, there are several limitations that prevent fault displacement hazard assessments for multiple locations simultaneously in a physically consistent manner. This study proposes an alternative approach that is based on stochastic source modelling and fault displacement analysis using Okada equations. The proposed method evaluates the fault displacement hazard potential due to a fault rupture. The developed method is applied to the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake from a retrospective perspective. The stochastic-source-based fault displacement hazard analysis method successfully identifies multiple source models that predict fault displacements in close agreement with observed GPS displacement vectors and displacement offsets along the fault trace. The case study for the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake demonstrates that the proposed stochastic-source-based method is a viable option in conducting probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis.

Electrical Imaging of a Shallow Free-Phase Stray Gas Plume from an Abandoned Exploration Well

Geophysical imaging of free-phase gas (FPG) within aquifers is an emerging method for understanding the mechanisms controlling stray gas migration from oil and gas wells. Crystal Geyser is an unsealed and partially cased well that transports stray CO2 gas to the shallow subsurface. Accumulations of subsurface CO2 FPG near Crystal Geyser have been inferred, but the actual location and dimensions remained unclear. Here, the subsurface FPG distribution surrounding Crystal Geyser was characterized by interpreting 2D electrical resistivity images with previous drilling records and field mapping. An approximately 70-metre-wide FPG plume was located laterally between Crystal Geyser’s conduit and the Little Grand Wash Fault. The FPG plume spanned the vertical extent of approximately 20 to 55 metres below the ground surface, located within the Slick Rock Member sandstone with the relatively low permeability Earthy Member silty sandstone acting as a caprock. The FPG plume was identified from an anomalously high resistivity zone within the Slick Rock Member that was not caused by lateral lithofacies changes or fault displacement. The conceptual FPG migration pathways beneath Crystal Geyser are presented, based on the interpreted FPG distribution from the electrical resistivity images combined with previous site characterization and the principles of buoyant FPG migration. FPG accumulates within the Slick Rock Member by buoyant up-dip migration beneath siltstone capillary barriers of the Earthy Member. FPG leaks to the ground surface within high permeability preferential pathways along the Little Grand Wash Fault and the conduit of Crystal Geyser.

Modelling of faults in LoopStructural 1.0

Without properly accounting for both fault kinematics and observations of a faulted surface, it is challenging to create 3D geological models of faulted geological units. Geometries where multiple faults interact, where the faulted surface geometry significantly deviate from a flat plane and where the geological interfaces are poorly characterised by sparse datasets are particular challenges. There are two existing approaches for incorporating faults into geological surface modelling. One approach incorporates the fault displacement into the surface description but does not incorporate fault kinematics and in most cases will produce geologically unexpected results such as shrinking intrusions, fold hinges without offset and layer thickness growth in flat oblique faults. The second approach builds a continuous surface without faulting and then applies a kinematic fault operator to the continuous surface to create the displacement. Both approaches have their strengths; however, neither approach can capture the interaction of faults within complicated fault networks, e.g. fault duplexes, flower structures and listric faults because they either (1) impose an incorrect (not defined by data) fault slip direction or (2) require an over-sampled dataset that describes the faulted surface location. In this study, we integrate the fault kinematics into the implicit surface, by using the fault kinematics to restore observations, and the model domain prior to interpolating the faulted surface. This new approach can build models that are consistent with observations of the faulted surface and fault kinematics. Integrating fault kinematics directly into the implicit surface description allows for complexly faulted stratigraphy and fault–fault interactions to be modelled. Our approach shows significant improvement in capturing faulted surface geometries, especially where the intersection angle between the faulted surface and the fault surface varies (e.g. intrusions, fold series) and when modelling interacting faults (fault duplex).

Tectonics and fluvial dynamism affecting the Tiber River in Prehistoric Rome

Geomorphological investigations in Rome’s river valley are revealing the dynamism of the prehistoric landscape. It is becoming increasingly apparent that paleogeographic conditions that defined Rome in the historical era are the product of changes since the Bronze Age, which may be the result of local fault activity in addition to fluvial dynamism. Through a dedicated borehole chronostratigraphic study, integrated by 14C and archaeological dates, and paleomagnetic investigations, we offer here new evidence for fault displacement since ca. 4500 years/BP. We present the failure of the sedimentary fabric of a clay horizon caused by liquefaction processes commonly linked with seismic shaking, interpreting an (ca. 4 m) offset to signify the existence of a fault line located at the foot of the Capitoline Hill. In addition, we show evidence for another (ca. 1 m) offset affecting a stratigraphic horizon in the river channel, occurring along another hypothesized fault line crossing through the Tiber Valley. Movement along this fault may have contributed to a documented phase of fast overflooding dated to the sixth century BCE which eventually led to the birth of the Tiber Island. The most plausible scenario implies progressive deformation, with an average tectonic rate of 2 mm/year, along these inferred fault lines. This process was likely punctuated with moderate earthquakes, but no large event necessarily occurred. Together, the available evidence suggests that during the early centuries of sedentary habitation at the site of Rome, active fault lines contributed to significant changes to the Tiber River valley, capable of challenging lowland activities.