PRICING-HEDGING DUALITY FOR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND THE NEGATIVE BASIS ARBITRAGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (06) ◽  
pp. 1950032
Author(s):  
JAN-FREDERIK MAI
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Risk Hedging ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Hedging Problem ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

Assuming the absence of arbitrage in a single-name credit risk model, it is shown how to replicate the risk-free bank account until a credit event by a static portfolio of a bond and infinitely many credit default swap (CDS) contracts. This static portfolio can be viewed as the solution of a credit risk hedging problem whose dual problem is to price the bond consistently with observed CDSs. This duality is maintained when the risk-free rate is shifted parallel. In practice, there is a unique parallel shift [Formula: see text] that is consistent with observed market prices for bond and CDSs. The resulting, risk-free trading strategy in case of positive [Formula: see text] earns more than the risk-free rate, is referred to as negative basis arbitrage in the market, and [Formula: see text] defined in this way is a scientifically well-justified definition for what the market calls negative basis. In economic terms, [Formula: see text] is a premium for taking the residual risks of a bond investment after interest rate risk and credit risk are hedged away. Chiefly, these are liquidity and legal risks.

scholarly journals Can Structural Models Price Default Risk? Evidence from Bond and Credit Derivative Markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 1550007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Ericsson ◽  
Joel Reneby ◽  
Hao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Credit Derivative ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Derivative Markets ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Free Rate

Using a set of structural models, we evaluate the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. In contrast to previous evidence from corporate bond data, credit default swap (CDS) premia are not systematically underestimated. In fact, one of our studied models has little difficulty on average in predicting their level. For robustness, we perform the same exercise for bond spreads by the same issuers on the same trading date. As expected, bond spreads relative to the treasury curve are systematically underestimated. This is not the case when the swap curve is used as a benchmark, suggesting that previously documented underestimation results may be sensitive to the choice of risk-free rate.

What Drives Systemic State Credit Risk? Evidence from the State Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 5-45
Author(s):  
Sheen Liu ◽  
Chunchi Wu ◽  
Chung-Ying Yeh ◽  
Woongsun Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
The State ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap

The Rise of Credit Default Swaps and Its Implications on Financial Stability

2018 ◽  
pp. 336-350
Author(s):  
Fatma Sezer Dural
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Credit Default Swaps ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Credit Crisis ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
The Stability

The credit default swap market has experienced an exponential growth in recent decades. Though the fırst credit default swap contract was negotiated in the mid-1990s, the market has enjoyed a surge of popularity beginning in 2003. By the end of June 2013, the outstanding amount reached 24.3 trillion dollars. It is mostly used to transfer or to hedge credit risk. Concurrently with the global credit crisis, several shortcomings in CDS markets have appeared. One of the obvious questions is whether they affect the stability of financial markets. In this context after broader exhibition of credit default swaps market, speculative use of CDS, inception of central counterparty, and transparency of CDS market is handled. As a conclusion, it is true that the CDS market still has some weaknesses, but it is no more prone to be destabilizing than other financial instruments. This is shown in this chapter.

Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market

2012 ◽  
Vol 103 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Navneet Arora ◽  
Priyank Gandhi ◽  
Francis A. Longstaff
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Counterparty Credit Risk ◽  
Default Swap

scholarly journals Splitting Credit Risk into Systemic, Sectorial and Idiosyncratic Components

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Alfonso Novales ◽  
Alvaro Chamizo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
The North ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Highly Correlated

We provide a methodology to estimate a global credit risk factor from credit default swap (CDS) spreads that can be very useful for risk management. The global risk factor (GRF) reproduces quite well the different episodes that have affected the credit market over the sample period. It is highly correlated with standard credit indices, but it contains much higher explanatory power for fluctuations in CDS spreads across sectors than the credit indices themselves. The additional information content over iTraxx seems to be related to some financial interest rates. We first use the estimated GRF to analyze the extent to which the eleven sectors we consider are systemic. After that, we use it to split the credit risk of individual firms into systemic, sectorial, and idiosyncratic components, and we perform some analyses to test that the estimated idiosyncratic components are actually firm-specific. The systemic and sectorial components explain around 65% of credit risk in the European industrial and financial sectors and 50% in the North American sectors, while 35% and 50% of risk, respectively, is of an idiosyncratic nature. Thus, there is a significant margin for portfolio diversification. We also show that our decomposition allows us to identify those firms whose credit would be harder to hedge. We end up analyzing the relationship between the estimated components of risk and some synthetic risk factors, in order to learn about the different nature of the credit risk components.

scholarly journals THE INTERACTIONS AND TRADE-OFFS OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP (CDS) AND BOND SPREADS IN A DYNAMIC CONTEXT

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-488
Author(s):  
Ioannis A. Tampakoudis ◽  
Andrius Tamošiūnas ◽  
Demetres N. Subeniotis ◽  
Ioannis G. Kroustalis
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments of the sovereign indebtedness in the euro area. We employ an integrated price discovery methodology on a rolling sample, with the intention to shed light on whether the CDS spreads can trigger rises in bond spreads, and the relative efficiency of credit risk pricing in the CDS and bond markets. In addition, we attempt to depict the evolution of the price discovery process regarding the direction of influence from one market to the other. The rolling window analysis verifies that the price discovery process evolves over time, presenting frequent alternations concerning the leading market. We find that during periods of economic turbulence the CDS market leads the bond market in price discovery, incorporating the new information about sovereign credit risk faster and more efficiently than the bond market does. This regularity should be seriously considered by private and public participants as they make investment and funding decisions. Therefore, the motivation of our paper is to identify the dominant market in terms of price discovery during a period of economic turmoil and, thus, to provide insights for decision making to investment bodies and central governments.

Regime Dependent Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spread

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-64
Author(s):  
Hong-Bae Kim ◽  
Yeonjeong Lee ◽  
Sang Hoon Kang ◽  
Seong-Min Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Interest Level ◽  
Efficient Hedging ◽  
Credit Default Swap Spread

This study investigates the influence of theoretical determinants on the Korea sovereign CDS spreads from January 2007 to September 2009 based on structural credit risk model. For the analysis of determinants on the sovereign CDS spread, this study adopts interest swap rate as reference interest rate, and decomposes yields curve into two components, ie, interest level and slope. Considering multivariate regression in level and difference variables, Stock returns and Interest rates have a significant effect on the CDS spreads among the theoretical determinants of structural credit risk models. CDS spreads may behave quite differently during volatile regime compared with their behavior in tranquil regime. We therefore apply Markov switching model to investigate the possibility that the influence of theoretical determinants of CDS spread has a regime dependent behavior. In all regimes Korean sovereign CDS spreads are highly sensitive to stock market returns, whereas in tranquil regime interest rates also have influence on CDS spreads. We conclude that for the efficient hedging of CDS exposure trader should adjust equity hedge ratio to the relevant regime.

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