Liquidity Risk and Correlation Risk: A Clinical Study of the General Motors and Ford Downgrade of May 2005

2015 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 1550006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viral V. Acharya ◽  
Stephen Schaefer ◽  
Yili Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
General Motors ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Market Makers ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Correlation Risk

The deterioration in credit quality of General Motors (GM) and Ford to junk status in the spring of 2005 caused a wide-spread sell-off in their corporate bonds. Using a novel dataset, we document that this sell-off appears to have generated significant liquidity risk for market-makers, as evidenced by a significant imbalance in their quotes towards sales. We find that simultaneously there was a substantial increase in the co-movement between innovations in the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of GM and Ford and those of firms in all other industries, the increase being the greatest during the period surrounding the actual downgrade and reversing sharply thereafter. We show that the corporate bond market makers' imbalance towards sales in GM and Ford bonds explains a significant portion of this co-movement. These results linking liquidity risk and correlation risk are consistent with models in which market prices are episodically determined by the limited risk-bearing capacity of financial intermediaries.

KUALITAS PASAR OBLIGASI KORPORASI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
pp. 11-25
Author(s):  
Donalson Silalahi
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Transaction Cost ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

lndonesia corporate bond market development can he done from various aspects, among others, through the stability and improvement of macroeconomic indicators, improving the quality of financial infrastructure, and improving the quality of the corporate bond market. This study aimed to describe the quality Indonesian corporate bond market based transaction costs approach. Therefore, the quality of the corporate bond market in this study manifested by transaction costs and decomposition of transaction costs (information friction and real friction). Based on the estimation of transaction costs and decomposition of transaction costs, regulators and market managers can create a variety of policies to improve the quality of the corporate bond market. To achieve these goals, the data used were corporate bond registered and transacted in the bond market and the sources of data from Securities Division reported OTC-FIS (Over the counter – Fixed Income Service). The research samples were 2336 observations using the purposive sampling technique to gather samples. The data were analyzed using the multiple regression equation. The research indicates that: First, transaction costs ty’ corporate bond is 0-798 with t-statistic is 31.964. Second, the contribution of information friction againts transaction cost is 45.1 percent with t-statistic is 18.20. "third, the contriliution real friction againts transaction cost is 14.2 percent with t-statistic is 5.71. Fourth, the information friction have the greater contribution to transaction cost with or without the classification of sample. Fifth, in the change of bond price segmentation, the contribution of information friction increases with the increase of the change of bond price. With reference to the research results, the quality of the corporate bond market can he improved by lowering the transaction costs in trade mechanism. Transaction costs can be reduced through increased transparency and improved the trading niechanisni of corporate bond market. Furthermore, the result if this research can be used by investors in creating portfolios and holding periods and for bond emitters in issuing bonds.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Ericsson ◽  
Kris Jacobs ◽  
Rodolfo Oviedo
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Swap Spreads

AbstractVariables that in theory determine credit spreads have limited explanatory power in existing empirical work on corporate bond data. We investigate the linear relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and default swap spreads. We find that estimated coefficients for a minimal set of theoretical determinants of default risk are consistent with theory and are significant statistically and economically. Volatility and leverage have substantial explanatory power in univariate and multivariate regressions. A principal component analysis of residuals and spreads indicates limited evidence for a residual common factor, confirming that the theoretical variables explain a significant amount of the variation in the data.

scholarly journals Can Structural Models Price Default Risk? Evidence from Bond and Credit Derivative Markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 1550007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Ericsson ◽  
Joel Reneby ◽  
Hao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Credit Derivative ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Derivative Markets ◽  
Bond Spreads ◽  
Free Rate

Using a set of structural models, we evaluate the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. In contrast to previous evidence from corporate bond data, credit default swap (CDS) premia are not systematically underestimated. In fact, one of our studied models has little difficulty on average in predicting their level. For robustness, we perform the same exercise for bond spreads by the same issuers on the same trading date. As expected, bond spreads relative to the treasury curve are systematically underestimated. This is not the case when the swap curve is used as a benchmark, suggesting that previously documented underestimation results may be sensitive to the choice of risk-free rate.

scholarly journals PEMODELAN KURVA IMBAL HASIL OBLIGASI KORPORASI RATING AA DAN A DENGAN NELSON SIEGEL SVENSSON DAN CUBIC SPLINE SMOOTHING

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-322
Author(s):  
Denny Permatasari ◽  
Nur Iriawan
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Cubic Spline ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Spline Smoothing ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Commercial Instrument

Bond is one of commercial instrument that influence economic sector in Indonesia. Bond transaction can't be made in the market directly, but it has been traded through securities. On average, there are only few bond transactions with the various market prices. Benchmarking is, therefore, needed to be created to determining bond price through yield curve. Through yield curve, the relation between yield of bond with same credit risk (rating) and different time to maturity can be seen. This research is conducted by employing time to maturity to model the yield of some selected corporate bonds with rating of AA and A. Two methods, Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) method couple with Levenberg-Marquardt optimization and Cubic Spline Smoothing (CSS) are employed here. These two methods have been applied to data from Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) ranging September to November 2008. The results show that CSS give smallest RMSE and MAE. In contrast, Nelson Siegel Svensson reports a model which more parsimony, more easily to be explained, and more adaptable to keep upfoward maturity than CSS. This research takes into account that NSS is better to be to model corporate bonds yield curve than CSS. Another importance conclusion that can be gather is that corporate bonds (with rating of AA and A) yield are hang about under IGSYC in certain period. Its means, that corporate bond market in Indonesia is not good for investment comparing to government bond.

scholarly journals Price discovery in the markets for credit risk: a Markov switching approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimpfl ◽  
Franziska J. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Information Shares ◽  
Sectional Analysis

AbstractWe examine price discovery in the Credit Default Swap and corporate bond market. Using a Markov switching framework enables us to analyze the dynamic behavior of the information shares during tranquil and crisis periods. The results show that price discovery takes place mostly on the CDS market. The importance of the CDS market even increases during the more volatile crisis periods. According to a cross sectional analysis liquidity is the main determinant of a market’s contribution to price discovery. During the crisis period, however, we also find a positive link between leverage and CDS market information shares. Overall the results indicate that price discovery measures and their determinants change during tranquil and crisis periods, which emphasizes the importance of more flexible frameworks, such as Markov switching models.

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