Global fisheries landings ceased increasing decades ago, causing an increasing shortfall in wild seafood supply and an expansion of aquaculture. The abundance of domesticated fishes now dwarfs related wild fishes in some coastal seas, changing the dynamics of their infectious diseases. Transport and trade of seafood, feed, eggs, and broodstock bring pathogens into new regions and into contact with naïve hosts. Density-dependent transmission creates threshold effects where disease can abruptly switch from endemic to epizootic dynamics. Hydrodynamics allow pathogens to disperse broadly, interconnecting farms into metapopulations of domesticated host fish in regions that also support related species of wild fish. Spillover and spillback dynamics of pathogen transmission between wild and farmed fish can create novel transmission pathways or bioamplify pathogen abundance, potentially depressing or endangering wild fish. Mortality from natural predator–prey interactions may be synergistic or compensatory with these increased infections. Domestic environments may favour the evolution of undesirable pathogen traits, such as virulence and drug resistance, leading to the emergence of strains that cause high mortality and (or) evade treatment. Overall, these changes to the dynamics of infectious disease in coastal seas impose new constraints on the sustainability of both wild and farmed fish.
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I