scholarly journals Asymptotic Exponential Arbitrage in the Schwartz Commodity Futures Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Tesfamariam Tadesse Welemical ◽  
Jane Akinyi Aduda ◽  
Martin Le Doux Mbele Bidima
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Futures Contract ◽  
Asymptotic Arbitrage ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process

In this paper, we consider the Schwartz’s one-factor model for a storable commodity and a futures contract on that commodity. We introduce the analysis of asymptotic arbitrage in storable commodity models by proving that the futures prices process allows asymptotic exponential arbitrage with geometric decaying failure probability. Next, we find by comparison that, under some similar conditions, our result is a corresponding commodity assets (stronger) version of Föllmer and Schachermayer’s result stated in the modeling setting of geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for financial security assets.

scholarly journals AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR VARIANCE SWAPS WITH AN ORNSTEIN–UHLENBECK PROCESS

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-102
Author(s):  
JIAN-PENG CAO ◽  
YAN-BING FANG
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Discrete Models ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Variance Swaps ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Mc Simulation ◽  
Popular Subject

Pricing variance swaps have become a popular subject recently, and most research of this type come under Heston’s two-factor model. This paper is an extension of some recent research which used the dimension-reduction technique based on the Heston model. A new closed-form pricing formula focusing on a log-return variance swap is presented here, under the assumption that the underlying asset prices can be described by a mean-reverting Gaussian volatility model (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process). Numerical tests in two respects using the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation are included. Moreover, we discuss a procedure of solving a quadratic differential equation with one variable. Our method can avoid the previously encountered limitations, but requires more time for calculation than other recent analytical discrete models.

Pricing of Futures Contracts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Krause
Keyword(s):  
Fair Value ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Cost Of Carry ◽  
Contract Expiration ◽  
The Cost

This chapter examines the relation between futures prices relative to the spot price of the underlying asset. Basic futures pricing is characterized by the convergence of futures and spot prices during the delivery period just before contract expiration. However, “no arbitrage” arguments that dictate the fair value of futures contracts largely determine pricing relations before expiration. Although the cost of carry model in its various forms largely determines futures prices before expiration, the chapter presents alternative explanations. Related commodity futures complexes exhibit mean-reverting behavior, as seen in commodity spread markets and other interrelated commodities. Energy commodity futures prices can be somewhat accurately modeled as a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, although whether these models provide economically significant excess returns is uncertain.

Financialization of Commodity Markets

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Putnam
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Commodity Futures Markets ◽  
Asset Class

In the early 2000s, financial investors began pouring billions of dollars into the commodity futures markets seeking the unique investment benefits of this distinct asset class. This “financialization” process has called into question the fundamental risk and return properties of commodity futures as evidence has emerged favoring the idea that the massive increase in investor flows caused a rise in futures prices, volatility, and intra- and intermarket return correlations. However, a contrarian line of research contends that the effects of the new “speculative” capital on the futures markets are unsubstantiated and the increased participation of financial investors poses little consequence to the economics of the marketplace. This latter line of literature maintains that the investment benefits of commodity futures have not been diminished and that fundamental factors and business cycle variations can explain the observed changes in commodity price behavior.

scholarly journals Time-changed fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 450-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Ascione ◽  
Yuliya Mishura ◽  
Enrica Pirozzi
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Fokker Planck Equation ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Fokker Planck

AbstractWe define a time-changed fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process by composing a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with the inverse of a subordinator. Properties of the moments of such process are investigated and the existence of the density is shown. We also provide a generalized Fokker-Planck equation for the density of the process.

scholarly journals Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the evolution of interacting populations

2017 ◽  
Vol 429 ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Bartoszek ◽  
Sylvain Glémin ◽  
Ingemar Kaj ◽  
Martin Lascoux
Keyword(s):  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Interacting Populations ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process
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