scholarly journals Logistic Regression Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Drought Persistence

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Rizwan Niaz ◽  
Xiang Zhang ◽  
Nouman Iqbal ◽  
Mohammed M.A. Almazah ◽  
Tajammal Hussain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Seasonal Drought

Drought is one of the natural hazards with potentially significant impacts on society, economy, and other natural resources over the globe. However, the understanding of drought characteristics and its persistence can significantly help to reduce the potential impacts of drought. Moreover, the knowledge about the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal drought frequency and drought persistence is important for water resource management, agricultural development, energy consumption, and crop yields. Therefore, the present study is employed to examine the seasonal drought frequency and drought persistence in the region. In this regard, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at the three-month time scale was used to determine meteorological drought. Furthermore, the logistic regression model is used to calculate the odds and probability of drought persistence from one season to the next for the selected stations by identifying the spatial pattern of seasonal drought frequency and persistence. The potential of the current analysis is validated on six selected stations of the northern area of Pakistan. The outcomes related to the current analysis provide the basis for taking more considerations on early warning systems and help to make the valuable decision for water resource management and agriculture sectors in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Drought and Ecological Flows in the Lower Guadiana River Basin (Southwest Iberian Peninsula)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 677
Author(s):  
Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo ◽  
Juan Carlos Gutiérrez-Estrada ◽  
Víctor Sanz-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Temporary Streams ◽  
Ecological Flows

Drought temporal characterization is a fundamental instrument in water resource management and planning of basins with dry-summer Mediterranean climate and with a significant seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation regime. This is the case for the Lower Guadiana Basin, where the river is the border between Spain and Portugal (Algarve-Baixo Alentejo-Andalucía Euroregion). For this transboundary basin, a description and evaluation of hydrological drought events was made using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with monthly precipitation time series of Spanish and Portuguese climatic stations in the study area. The results showed the occurrence of global cycles of about 25–30 years with predominance of moderate and severe drought events. It was observed that the current requirements of ecological flows in strategic water bodies were not satisfied in some months of October to April of years characterized by severe drought events occurring in the period from 1946 to 2015. Therefore, the characterization of the ecological status of the temporary streams that were predominant in this basin should be a priority in the next hydrologic plans in order to identify the relationships between actual flow regimes and habitat attributes, thereby improving environmental flows assessments, which will enable integrated water resource management.

scholarly journals A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 529-546
Author(s):  
Zhenchen Liu ◽  
Guihua Lu ◽  
Hai He ◽  
Zhiyong Wu ◽  
Jian He
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Seasonal Drought ◽  
Drought Prediction ◽  
Regional Drought

Abstract. Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial–temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric–oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric–oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

Catchment surveillance for water resource management

Waterlines ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-25
Author(s):  
Barry Lloyd ◽  
Teresa Thorpe
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management

Water Resources Management in the Semi-Arid Central Valley of California

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
J. J. Vasconcelos
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ground Water Resource ◽  
Semi Arid

Hater resource managers in semi-arid regions are faced with some unique problems. The wide variations in precipitation and stream flows in semi-arid regions increase man's dependence on the ground water resource for an ample and reliable supply of water. Proper management of the ground water resource is absolutely essential to the economic well being of semi-arid regions. Historians have discovered the remains of vanished advanced civilizations based on irrigated agriculture which were ignorant of the importance of proper ground water resource management. In the United States a great deal of effort is presently being expended in the study and control of toxic discharges to the ground water resource. What many public policy makers fail to understand is that the potential loss to society resulting from the mineralization of the ground water resource is potentially much greater than the loss caused by toxic wastes discharges, particularly in developing countries. Appropriations for ground water resource management studies in developed countries such as the United States are presently much less than those for toxic wastes management and should be increased. It is the reponsibility of the water resource professional to emphasize to public policy makers the importance of ground water resource management. Applications of ground water resource management models in the semi-arid Central Valley of California are presented. The results demonstrate the need for proper ground water resource management practices in semi-arid regions and the use of ground water management models as a valuable tool for the water resource manager.

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