Adaptive Strategies of Small Family Farms in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change is now an accepted reality. It is felt globally through increased temperature and precipitation regime disruption and increased frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts. In the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation actions, these changes could have significant negative impact on the sustainability of agriculture and the resilience of populations especially in areas with fragile ecology. However, these changes remain an issue that is difficult to grasp and still not well integrated into management strategies at the farm, sector, and territory levels. The objectives of this research are to describe the production systems, and to study the resilience strategies, perception, and adaptive practices of farms in the Tleta watershed in Northwest Morocco in the face of climate change and landscape dynamics. It describes farming systems and activities, attempts to analyze how farmers perceive global changes in their landscape, and adopts innovative strategies and practices to adapt to them. It also shows that the actions of institutional actors in the area that can contribute to the resilience of the populations are numerous but remain fragmentary and lack integration.

Evaluation of GPROF V05 Precipitation Retrievals under Different Cloud Regimes

Precipitation retrievals from passive microwave satellite observations form the basis of many widely used precipitation products, but the performance of the retrievals depends on numerous factors such as surface type and precipitation variability. Previous evaluation efforts have identified bias dependence on precipitation regime, which may reflect the influence on retrievals of recurring factors. In this study, the concept of a regime-based evaluation of precipitation from the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm is extended to cloud regimes. Specifically, GPROF V05 precipitation retrievals under four different cloud regimes are evaluated against ground radars over the United States. GPROF is generally able to accurately retrieve the precipitation associated with both organized convection and less organized storms, which collectively produce a substantial fraction of global precipitation. However, precipitation from stratocumulus systems is underestimated over land and overestimated over water. Similarly, precipitation associated with trade cumulus environments is underestimated over land, while biases over water depend on the sensor’s channel configuration. By extending the evaluation to more sensors and suppressed environments, these results complement insights previously obtained from precipitation regimes, thus demonstrating the potential of cloud regimes in categorizing the global atmosphere into discrete systems.

Resilience to climate change: adaptation strategies for the water supply system of Formia and Gaeta (Province of Latina, Central Italy)

The aqueduct serving the municipalities of Formia and Gaeta (Latina province, Italy), an area under the enforcement and control responsibility of “ATO 4” Autorità d’Ambito Territoriale Ottimale – (Integrated Urban Water Management Agency), is supplied by two important karst springs. These springs, fed by the western Aurunci Mountains system are known as Mazzoccolo and Capodacqua having an average flow rates of 1100 l/s and 1300 l/s, respectively. Although these sources have been used since ancient Roman times and the quality of their water is excellent, variations in the precipitation regime, possibly related to worldwide climate changes, has exacerbated the following problems: a decrease in the flow rates of the springs caused by the reduction in winter rainfall, and an increase of turbidity due to concentrated rainfall events. In order to mitigate these problems, which affect a resident population of about 150,000 inhabitants, Acqualatina S.p.A. - the water utility company - promoted a series of geological and hydrogeological surveys. These studies aim at increasing the knowledge on the geological setting and to find additional sources to improve the existing supply. Within the framework of these activities, we studied a strategy aimed at diversifying the water supply by identifying new exploitable aquifers in the area, to reduce the aforementioned problems. This paper presents the results of research carried out before and during the construction of the water well field “25 Ponti” located in the coastal area of the plain of Formia. The research consisted in laboratory analyses of 130 groundwater samples and in monitoring of piezometric trends. The data show a seasonal variation in groundwater chemical composition caused also by aquifer exploitation, which in some periods of the year affects the regulated reserves. This seasonal phenomenon was however present in absence of pumping.

Precipitation extremes over territory of Belarus under current climate change

The study presents an investigation of current and future changes in precipitation regime over territory of Belarus. An assessment of precipitation means and extremes and droughts indices was provided for period of 1948–2019 and more detailed analysis have been carried out for period of climate change in 1989–2019. The precipitation expected changes were studied for period of 2021–2099. It was established that precipitation growth up to 20–30 % in winter during 1989–2019 in comparison by 1948–1988, is connected with increase the number of days with weak precipitation and caused by growing duration of liquid precipitation falling. In summer the reducing of rain falling duration was noticed over territory of Belarus. At the same time the significant growth of precipitation maximal totals per day by 20–30 % was detected. The largest growth was found in the south of the country. Dry days number raised by 1–4 days and dry and hot days numbers raised by 1–2 days per decade. The repeatability of atmosphere droughts of different gradations increased up to 2–26 % by the majority of meteorological stations. According to climate projections based on the EURO-CORDEX-11, the growth of yearly and seasonal precipitation is expected over territory of Belarus. The precipitation increase is connected with growth of intense precipitation. At the same time, the dry periods duration is projected to rise in the warm part of the year. These tendencies are characterised the climate extremeness increase in the current century.

Drought responsiveness in two Mexican conifer species forming young stands at high elevations

Aim of study: To determine the response of high-altitudinal forests to seasonal drought. Area of study: Monte Tláloc, Estado de México and Rancho Joyas del Durazno, Municipality of Río Verde, San Luis Potosí, México. Materials and methods: In this study, we evaluate the response to drought and hydroclimate in two young Mexican conifers sampled at high elevation, correlating records of tree-ring growth and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Main results: The results show that Pinus teocote and Abies religiosa are vulnerable to the precipitation regime and warm conditions of winter-spring. The physiological response mechanisms seem to be differentiated between the species, according to the effects of drought stress. The NDVI demonstrated the different temporal responses of the species according to their inherent physiological mechanisms in response to hydroclimatic limitations. This differentiation can be attributed to the spatial variation present in the particular physical and geographic conditions of each area. The dry and warm seasonal climates reveal P. teocote and A. religiosa to be species that are vulnerable to drought conditions. However, further evaluation of the resistance and resilience of these species is necessary, as well as disentanglement of the effects of associated mechanisms that can influence the predicted processes of extinction or migration. Research highlights: Pinus teocote and Abies religiosa are vulnerable to the seasonal drought conditions. These results are of particular importance given the climatic scenarios predicted for elevated ecotones. Tree-ring widths and NDVI improved the response of radial growth to the climate, enhancing our understanding of forest growth dynamics. The response to climatic variability depends on the particular species.

Upper Gila, Salt, and Verde Rivers: Arid Land Rivers in a Changing Climate

The major tributary of the Lower Colorado River, the Gila River, is a critical source of water for human and natural environments in the Southwestern US. Warmer and drier than the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB), with less snow, and a bi-modal precipitation regime, the Gila River is controlled by a set of climatic conditions that is different from the controls on Upper Colorado River flow. Unlike the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, the Upper Gila River and major Gila River tributaries, the Salt and Verde Rivers, do not yet reflect significant declines in annual streamflow, in spite of warming trends. Annual streamflow is dominated by cool season precipitation, but the monsoon influence is discernable as well, variable across the basin and complicated by an inverse relationship with cool season precipitation in the Salt and Verde River basins. Major multi-year streamflow droughts in these two basins have frequently been accompanied by wet monsoons, suggesting that monsoon precipitation may partially offset the impacts of a dry cool season. While statistically significant trends in annual streamflow are not evident, decreases in fall and spring streamflow reflect warming temperatures and some decreases in spring precipitation. Because climatic controls vary with topography and the influence of the monsoon, the impacts of warming on streamflow in the three sub-basins is somewhat variable. However, given relationships between climate and streamflow, current trends in hydroclimate, and projections for the future, it would be prudent to expect declines in Gila River water supplies in the coming decades.

Assessing the Potential of a Long-Term Climate Forecast for Cuba Using the WRF Model

Seasonal climatic prediction studies are a matter of wide debate all over the world. Cuba, a mainly agricultural nation, should greatly benefit from the knowledge, which is available months in advance of the precipitation regime and allows for the proper management of water resources. In this work, a series of six experiments were made with a mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) that produced a 15-month forecast for each month of cumulative precipitation starting at two dates, and for three non-consecutive years with different meteorological characteristics: one dry year (2004), one year that started dry and turned rainy (2005), and one year where several tropical storms occurred (2008). ERA-Interim reanalysis data were used for the initial and border conditions and experiments started 1 month before the beginning of the rainy and the dry seasons, respectively. In a general sense, the experience of using WRF indicated that it was a valid resource for seasonal forecast, since the results obtained were in the same range as those reported by the literature for similar cases. Several limitations were revealed by the results: the forecasts underestimated the monthly cumulative precipitation figures, tropical storms entering through the borders sometimes followed courses different from the real courses inside the working domain, storms that developed inside the domain were not reproduced by WRF, and differences in initial conditions led to significantly different forecasts for the corresponding time steps (nonlinearity). Changing the model parameterizations and initial conditions of the ensemble forecast experiments was recommended.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION ON THE TERRITORY OF THE ODESSA REGION IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Problem Statement and Purpose. Rational use of nature, solution of natural and environmental problems, planning and location of various sectors of the economy are based on climatological information. As empirical data accumulate, some values, as well as the probabilistic characteristics of climate-relatednatural resources, need constant refinement due to the fact that hydrometeorological phenomena are extremely variable in time and space. Of great practical interest is information on daily and maximum rainfall and therefore there is a need for their comprehensive analysis, study and forecasting. Data & Methods. The initial information for estimating the precipitation regime is the term data for 00, 06, 12 and 18 hours at nine stations of Odessa region in the period 2010–2015, to which a number of general scientific and statistical methods were applied. Results. Some indicators of the precipitation regime, which are widely used in scientific and practical developments, are analyzed. The total number of days with precipitation and their recurrence are determined. For the territory of the region it is 34.4%. The most days with precipitation were observed in January, and the least – in August, except for Art. Calm, at which the minimum number of days with precipitation was recorded in November. The frequency of precipitation of different gradations was studied and significant precipitations were analyzed: 10, 20, 30 mm and more per day. The region is dominated by precipitation up to 10.0 mm, the frequency of which ranges from 86% (station Rozdilna) to 91.4% (station Odessa). The maximum frequency of days with precipitation of 30 mm or more per day falls on the warm season (April-October). The fields of daily maximum of 1% and 5% probability are heterogeneous and at some stations of Odessa region the values of this indicator exceed the climatic norm (up to 10–12 mm), at others – less than the norm. The obtained results are a certain contribution to the study of both theoretical and practical aspects of the study of daily amounts and daily maximum precipitation, which are indicators of the regional climate. They can be used to make a climatological forecast, which is necessary for a more complete development of climatic resources of Odessa region.