scholarly journals Electricity consumption forecasting using DFT decomposition based hybrid ARIMA-DLSTM model

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 1107
Author(s):  
Osman Yakubu ◽  
Narendra Babu C.
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Linear Component ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Consumption Data ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Nonlinear Components

Forecasting electricity consumption is vital, it guides policy makers and electricity distribution companies in formulating policies to manage production and curb pilfering. Accurately forecasting electricity consumption is a challenging task. Relying on a single model to forecast electricity consumption data which comprises both linear and nonlinear components produces inaccurate results. In this paper, a hybrid model using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deep long short-term memory (DLSTM) model based on discrete fourier transform (DFT) decomposition is presented. Aided by its superior decomposition capability, filtering using DFT can efficiently decompose the data into linear and nonlinear components. ARIMA is employed to model the linear component, while DLSTM is applied on the nonlinear component; the two predictions are then combined to obtain the final predicted consumption. The proposed techniques are applied on the household electricity consumption data of France to obtain forecasts for one day, one week and ten days ahead consumption. The results reveal that the proposed model outperforms other benchmark models considered in this investigation as it attained lower error values. The proposed model could accurately decompose time series data without exhibiting a performance degradation, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals VN-INDEX TREND PREDICTION USING LONG-SHORT TERM MEMORY NEURAL NETWORKS

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (12.2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Nguyen Ngoc Tra ◽  
Ho Phuoc Tien ◽  
Nguyen Thanh Dat ◽  
Nguyen Ngoc Vu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

The paper attemps to forecast the future trend of Vietnam index (VN-index) by using long-short term memory (LSTM) networks. In particular, an LSTM-based neural network is employed to study the temporal dependence in time-series data of past and present VN index values. Empirical forecasting results show that LSTM-based stock trend prediction offers an accuracy of about 60% which outperforms moving-average-based prediction.

scholarly journals Prediction of Rainfall Using Intensified LSTM Based Recurrent Neural Network with Weighted Linear Units

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 668 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Poornima ◽  
M. Pushpalatha
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Prediction of rainfall is one of the major concerns in the domain of meteorology. Several techniques have been formerly proposed to predict rainfall based on statistical analysis, machine learning and deep learning techniques. Prediction of time series data in meteorology can assist in decision-making processes carried out by organizations responsible for the prevention of disasters. This paper presents Intensified Long Short-Term Memory (Intensified LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to predict rainfall. The neural network is trained and tested using a standard dataset of rainfall. The trained network will produce predicted attribute of rainfall. The parameters considered for the evaluation of the performance and the efficiency of the proposed rainfall prediction model are Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), accuracy, number of epochs, loss, and learning rate of the network. The results obtained are compared with Holt–Winters, Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Recurrent Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory models in order to exemplify the improvement in the ability to predict rainfall.

scholarly journals Predicting Stock Market Prices using Fine-Tuned IndRNN

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 309-315
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Activation Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Time

Prediction and analysis of stock market data have a vital role in current time’s economy. The various methods used for the prediction can be classified into 1) Linear Algorithms like Moving Average (MA) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). 2) Non-Linear Models like Artificial Neural Networks and Deep Learning. In this work, we are using the results of previous research papers to demonstrate the potential of some models like ARIMA, Multi-Layer Perception (MLP) ), Convolutional Neural Neural Network (CNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) for forecasting the stock price of an organization based on its available historical data. Then, implementing some of these methods to check and compare their efficiency within the same issue. We used Independently RNN (IndRNN) to explore a better efficiency for stock prediction and we found that it gives better accuracy prevailing methods in the current time. We also proposed an enhancement to IndRNN by replacing its default activation function with a more effective function called Parametric Rectified Linear Unit (PreLU). Our proposed approach can be used as an alternative method for predicting time series data efficiently other than the typical approaches today

scholarly journals Predicting failures in electronic water taps in rural sub-Saharan African communities: an LSTM-based approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 (12) ◽  
pp. 2776-2785
Author(s):  
N. M. Offiong ◽  
Y. Wu ◽  
F. A. Memon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Failure Predictions ◽  
Solar Powered

Abstract There is a growing need to sustain solar-powered water taps in most parts of the sub-Saharan Africa. The frequent failure of the water taps gives rise to intermittent water supply and poor service delivery by the water service providers. The challenge is to foresee and predict the failure of these water systems before they occur. This study develops a scalable machine-learning model for failure prediction in electronic water taps to ensure timely maintenance of the taps. Specifically, we develop a model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) to efficiently make failure predictions with noisy heterogeneous time-series data from rural water taps. Results from the experiment prove that the proposed model can effectively classify activities and patterns in various time-series datasets. With the proposed model, the failures of the solar-powered taps due to abnormal events can be successfully predicted well in advance, with an accuracy of 78.54%. Based on the data analyses, common causes of failures are presented.

scholarly journals Fishery Landing Forecasting Using Wavelet-Based Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ani Shabri ◽  
Ruhaidah Samsudin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moving Average Models ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
The Individual

The accuracy of the wavelet-ARIMA (WA) model in monthly fishery landing forecasting is investigated in the study. In the first part of the study, the discrete wallet transform (DWT) is used to decompose fishery landing time series data. Then ARIMA, as a powerful forecasting tool, is implemented to predict each wavelet transform subseries components independently. Finally, the prediction results of the modeled subseries components are summed to formulate an ensemble forecast for the original fishery landing series. To assess the effectiveness of this model, monthly fishery landing recorded data from East Johor and Pahang states of Peninsular Malaysia have been used as a case study. The result of the study shows that the proposed model was found to provide more accurate fishery landing series forecasts than the individual ARIMA model.

scholarly journals Comparing of ARIMA and RBFNN for short-term forecasting

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haviluddin Haviluddin ◽  
Ahmad Jawahir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Simulated Time ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

Based on a combination of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), a time-series forecasting model is proposed. The proposed model has examined using simulated time series data of tourist arrival to Indonesia recently published by BPS Indonesia. The results demonstrate that the proposed RBFNN is more competent in modelling and forecasting time series than an ARIMA model which is indicated by mean square error (MSE) values. Based on the results obtained, RBFNN model is recommended as an alternative to existing method because it has a simple structure and can produce reasonable forecasts.

scholarly journals Different Techniques used in Stock Market Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 60-62
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

The stock market has been one of the primary revenue streams for many for years. The stock market is often incalculable and uncertain; therefore predicting the ups and downs of the stock market is an uphill task even for the financial experts, which they been trying to tackle without any little success. But it is now possible to predict stock markets due to rapid improvement in technology which led to better processing speed and more accurate algorithms. It is necessary to forswear the misconception that prediction of stock market is only meant for people who have expertise in finance; hence an application can be developed to guide the user about the tempo of the stock market and risk associated with it.The prediction of prices in stock market is a complicated task, and there are various techniques that are used to solve the problem, this paper investigates some of these techniques and compares the accuracy of each of the methods. Forecasting the time series data is important topic in many economics, statistics, finance and business. Of the many techniques in forecasting time series data such as the Autoregressive, Moving Average, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, it is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average that has higher accuracy and higher precision than other methods. And with recent advancement in computational power of processors and advancement in knowledge of machine learning techniques and deep learning, new algorithms could be made to tackle the problem of predicting the stock market. This paper investigates one of such machine learning algorithms to forecast time series data such as Long Short Term Memory. It is compared with traditional algorithms such as the ARIMA method, to determine how superior the LSTM is compared to the traditional methods for predicting the stock market.

scholarly journals Analyzing and Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Integration of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Neural Network on Smart Meter Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1986-1997
Author(s):  
M. Suresh, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Smart Meter ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Smart metering is a recently developed research area over the globe and it appears to be a remedy for increasing prices of electricity. Electricity consumption forecasting is an essential process in offering intelligence to smart girds. Rapid and precise forecasting allows a utility provider to plan the resources and also to take control actions to balance the electricity supply and demand. The customers will advantage from the metering solutions by a greater understanding of their own energy utilization and forthcoming projections, allowing them to effectively manage the cost of their consumption. In this view, this paper presents an Integration of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model with Neural Network (NN) for Electricity Consumption Forecasting using Smart Meter Data. As the time series data often does not hold linear as well as nonlinear patterns, ARIMA or NN models are not enough to model and predict the time series data. The ARIMA-NN model will be trained using the data and generates a model. Afterward, the generated model can be utilized to predict the electricity consumption by the application of new building data. The proposed ARIMA-NN model is evaluated and the simulation outcome strongly pointed out its superior performance over the compared methods. The presented model has obtained effective testing performance with the MAPE of 25.53, an accuracy of 48.38, and MSE of 0.21.

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