Abstract 164: Outcome Prediction After Endovascular Reperfusion Therapy For Acute Ischemic Stroke: The SNARL Score

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyam Prabhakaran ◽  
Kevin N Sheth ◽  
John B Terry ◽  
Raul G Nogueira ◽  
Anat Horev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Outcome Prediction ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Pre Treatment

Background: Tools to predict outcome after endovascular reperfusion therapy (ERT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) have previously included only pre-treatment variables. We sought to derive and validate an outcome prediction score based on readily available pre-treatment and treatment factors. Methods: The derivation cohort consisted of 516 patients with anterior circulation AIS from 9 centers from September 2009-July 2011. The validation cohort consisted of 110 patients with anterior circulation AIS from the Penumbra Pivotal Trial. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of good outcome, defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) of < 2, in the derivation sample; model beta coefficients were used to assign point scores. Discrimination was tested using C-statistics. We then validated the score in the Penumbra cohort and performed calibration (predicted versus observed good outcome) in both cohorts. Results: Good outcome at 3 months was noted in 189 (36.8%) patients in the derivation cohort. The independent predictors of good outcome were A ge (2 pts: <60; 1 pt: 60-79; 0 pts: >79), N IHSS score (4 pts: 0-10; 2 pts: 11-20; 0 pts: > 20), L ocation of clot (2 pts: M2; 1 pt: M1; 0 pts: ICA), R ecanalization (5 pts: TICI 2 or 3), and S ymptomatic hemorrhage (2 pts: none, HT1-2, or PH1; 0 pts: PH2). The outcome (SNARL) score demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation cohort (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.78) and validation cohort (C-statistic 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.84). There was excellent calibration in each cohort (Figure). Conclusions: The SNARL score is a validated tool to determine the probability of functional recovery among AIS treated with endovascular reperfusion strategies. Unlike previous scores that did not include treatment factors such as successful recanalization or hemorrhagic complications, our score can be applied to patients after treatment and may provide guidance to physicians, patients, and families about expected functional outcome.

Abstract TMP85: Predictive Score of Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients Not Submitted to Reperfusion Therapies - PROpHET

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao B Andrade ◽  
Gisele S Silva ◽  
Jay P Mohr ◽  
Joao J Carvalho ◽  
Luisa Franciscatto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Digital Version

Objective: To create an accurate and user-friendly pr edictive sc o re for he morrhagic t ransformation in patients not submitted to reperfusion therapies (PROpHET). Methods: We created a multivariable logistic regression model to assess the prediction of Hemorrhage Transformation (HT) for acute ischemic strokes not treated with reperfusion therapy. One point was assigned for each of gender, cardio-aortic embolism, hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, leukoaraiosis, hyperglycemia, 2 points for ASPECTS ≤7, and -3 points for lacunar syndrome. Acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to the Fortaleza Comprehensive Stroke Center in Brazil from 2015 to 2017 were randomly selected to the derivation cohort. The validation cohort included similar, but not randomized, cases from 5 Brazilian and one American Comprehensive Stroke Centers. Symptomatic cases were defined as NIHSS ≥4 at 24 hours after the event. Results from the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results: From 2,432 of acute ischemic stroke screened in Fortaleza, 448 were prospectively selected for the derivation cohort and a 7-day follow-up. From 1,847 not selected, 577 underwent reperfusion therapy, 734 were excluded due to inadequate imaging or refusal of consent, and 538 whose data were obtained retrospectively and were selected only for the validation cohort. A score ≥3 had 78% sensitivity and 75% specificity, AUC-ROC 0.82 for all cases of HT, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.85, Brier Score 0.1, and AUC-ROC 0.83 for those with symptomatic HT. An AUC-ROC of 0.84 was found for the validation cohort of 1,910 from all 6 centers, and a score ≥3 was found in 65% of patients with HT against 11.3% of those without HT. In comparison with 8 published predictive scores of HT, PROpHET was the most accurate (p < 0.01). Conclusions: PROpHET offers a tool simple, quick and easy-to-perform to estimate risk stratification of HT in patients not submitted to RT. A digital version of PROpHET is available in www.score-prophet.com Classification of evidence: This study provides Class I evidence from prospective data acquisition.

Abstract WP39: Mechanical Embolectomy for Acute Ischemic Stroke Beyond Six Hours From Symptom Onset Using Advanced MR Imaging

Stroke ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan McTaggart ◽  
Shadi Yaghi ◽  
Daniel C Sacchetti ◽  
Richard Haas ◽  
Shawna Cutting ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Mr Imaging ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Large Vessel ◽  
Lesion Volume ◽  
Large Artery ◽  
Large Vessel Occlusion ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Vessel Occlusion ◽  
Good Outcome

Background: There is very limited data on the use of advanced neuroimaging to select patients with acute ischemic stroke and large vessel occlusion for intraarterial therapy beyond 6 hours from onset. Our aim is to report the outcome of patients with acute ischemic stroke and large artery occlusion who presented beyond 6 hours from onset, had favorable MRI imaging profile, and underwent mechanical embolectomy. Methods: This is a single institution retrospective study between December 1st, 2015, and July 30 th , 2016 with acute ischemic stroke and anterior circulation large vessel occlusion (LVO) with ASPECTS of 6 or more and beyond 6 hours from symptoms onset. Favorable imaging profile was defined as 1) DWI lesion volume (as defined as apparent diffusion coefficient < 620 X 10-6 mm2/s) of 70 mL or less AND 2) Penumbra volume (as defined by volume of tissue with Tmax >6 sec) of 15 mL or greater AND 3) A mismatch ratio of 1.8 or more AND 4) Volume of tissue with perfusion lesion with Tmax > 10 sec is less than 100 mL. Good outcome was defined as a 90 day mRS≤2. Results: In the study period, 41 patients met the inclusion criteria; 22 (53.6%) had favorable imaging profile and underwent mechanical embolectomy. The median age was 75 years (59-92), 68.2% were females; the median time from last known normal to groin puncture was 684.5 minutes (range 363-1628) and the median admission NIHSS score was 17.5 (range 4-28). The rate of good outcomes in this series was similar to that in a patient level pooled meta-analysis of the recent endovascular trials (68.2% vs. 46.0%, p=0.07). The rate of good outcome matches that of the EXTEND-IA trial that selected patients using perfusion imaging (68.2% vs. 71.0%, p = 1.00). None of the patients in our cohort had symptomatic intracereberal hemorrhage. Conclusion: Advanced MR imaging may help select patients with acute ischemic stroke and anterior circulation large vessel occlusion for embolectomy beyond the treatment window used in most endovascular trials.

Abstract WP22: Reperfusion Therapy After Neurological Deterioration in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mooseok Park ◽  
Tai Hwan Park ◽  
Sang-Soon Park ◽  
Jong-Moo Park ◽  
Yong-Jin Cho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Clinical Features ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Neurological Deterioration ◽  
Large Artery ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
Intravenous Tissue Plasminogen Activator

Background: Guidelines do not recommend reperfusion therapy in acute ischemic stroke patients with mild symptoms considering low gain compared to the risk. However, some patients with mild first symptoms experience neurological deterioration (ND) after hospitalization. We aimed to analyze clinical features and outcomes of patient who received reperfusion therapy after ND occurred. Methods: We enrolled patients who were admitted within 7 days after acute ischemic stroke or TIA between January 2012 and July 2018 from a multicenter stroke registry database in Korea (CRCS-K). Patients who 1) admitted via emergency room, and 2) received reperfusion therapy including intravenous tissue plasminogen activator and/or endovascular treatment were included. Clinical features and outcomes such as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score distribution at 3 months after stroke were compared between patients received reperfusion therapy after ND and those without ND before the treatment. Results: Among 51325 patients, 6577 (12.8%) received reperfusion therapy were identified. Reperfusion therapy was performed after ND in 136 patients (2.1%). Mean time of onset to needle is 342.1 and 167.2, and onset to perfusion is 1351.6 and 422.0 in patients treated after ND, and those without, respectively. TIA history was more frequent and atrial fibrillation history was less frequent in patients treated after ND. Initial median (IQR) National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 8 (5 - 12), 10 (6 - 16) in patients treated after ND, and those without, respectively. Large artery atherosclerosis was more frequent in patients treated after ND (42.9 % vs. 26.7%). There was higher rate of good outcome at 90 days in patients treated after ND (84 [61.8%]) compared with those without ND before treatment (3359 [52.2%]; OR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.02-1.87]). In multivariable analysis, good outcome at 90 days in patients treated after ND lacked statistical significance (OR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.71-1.62]). There is no significant statistical difference of death at 90 days (13.2% vs. 10.4%, p = 0.364). Conclusion: Reperfusion therapy could apply patients with mild first symptoms experience ND after hospitalization and expect similar prognosis compared to those without ND before the treatment.

Abstract TP43: Is Unintended Hypothermia After Endovascular Therapy Associated With Improved Functional Outcome of Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke?

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hartmann ◽  
Simon Winzer ◽  
Timo Siepmann ◽  
Lars-Peder Pallesen ◽  
Alexandra Prakapenia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Endovascular Therapy ◽  
Large Vessel Occlusion ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Vessel Occlusion ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
Risk Ratios

Introduction: Hypothermia may be neuroprotective in acute ischemic stroke. Stroke patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion (acLVO) who receive endovascular therapy (EVT) are frequently hypothermic after the procedure. We sought to analyze whether this unintended hypothermia was associated with improved functional outcome. Methods: We extracted data of consecutive patients (01/2016-04/2019) from our prospective EVT database that includes all patients screened for EVT at our center. We included patients with acLVO who received EVT and analyzed recanalization (mTICI 2b-3) and complications (i.e., pneumonia, bradyarrhythmia, venous thromboembolism) during the hospital course. We assessed functional outcome at 3 months and analyzed risk ratios (RR) for good outcome (mRS scores 0-2) and mortality of patients who were hypothermic (<36°C) compared to patients who were normothermic ( > 36°C) after EVT. We compared the frequency of complications and calculated RRs for good outcome and mortality in the subgroup with recanalization. Results: Among 674 patients with anterior circulation ischemic stroke, 372 patients received EVT for acLVO (178 [47%] male, age 77 years [65-82], NIHSS score 16 [12 - 20]). Of these, 186 patients (50%) were hypothermic (median [IQR] temperature 35.2°C [34.7-35.6]) and 186 patients were normothermic (media temperature 36.4 [36.2-36.8]) after EVT. At 3 months, 54 of 186 (29.0%) hypothermic patients compared with 65 of 186 (35.0%) normothermic patients had a good outcome (RR, 0.83; 95%CI 0.62-1.12) and 52 of 186 (27.9%) hypothermic patients compared with 46 of 186 (24.7%) normothermic patients had died (RR, 1.13; 95%CI 0.8-1.59). This relation was consistent in 307 patients (82.5% of all EVTs) with successful recanalization (good outcome: RR, 0.85; 95%CI 0.63-1.14.; mortality: RR, 1.05; 95%CI 0.7-1.57). More hypothermic patients suffered pneumonia (37.8% vs. 24.7%; p=0.003) or bradyarrhythmia (55.6% vs. 18.3%; p<0.001). Venous thromboembolism was distributed similarly (5.4% vs. 6.5%; p=0.42). Conclusion: Unintended hypothermia following EVT for acLVO was not associated with improved functional outcome or reduced mortality but an increased complication rate in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Topographic correlation of infarct area on CT perfusion with functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Haranhalli ◽  
Nnenna Mbabuike ◽  
Sanjeet S. Grewal ◽  
Tasneem F. Hasan ◽  
Michael G. Heckman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Ct Perfusion ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Infarct Core ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Confounding Variables

OBJECTIVEThe role of CT perfusion (CTP) in the management of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) remains a matter of debate. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the areas of infarction and penumbra on CTP scans and functional outcome in patients with AIS.METHODSThis was a retrospective review of 100 consecutively treated patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke who underwent CT angiography (CTA) and CTP at admission between February 2011 and October 2014. On CTP, the volume of ischemic core and penumbra was measured using the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS). CTA findings were also noted, including the site of occlusion and regional leptomeningeal collateral (rLMC) score. Functional outcome was defined by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score obtained at discharge. Associations of CTP and CTA parameters with mRS scores at discharge were assessed using multivariable proportional odds logistic regression models.RESULTSThe median age was 67 years (range 19–95 years), and the median NIH Stroke Scale score was 16 (range 2–35). In a multivariable analysis adjusting for potential confounding variables, having an infarct on CTP scans in the following regions was associated with a worse mRS score at discharge: insula ribbon (p = 0.043), perisylvian fissure (p < 0.001), motor strip (p = 0.007), M2 (p < 0.001), and M5 (p = 0.023). A worse mRS score at discharge was more common in patients with a greater volume of infarct core (p = 0.024) and less common in patients with a greater rLMC score (p = 0.004).CONCLUSIONSThe results of this study provide evidence that several CTP parameters are independent predictors of functional outcome in patients with AIS and have potential to identify those patients most likely to benefit from reperfusion therapy in the treatment of AIS.

scholarly journals Endovascular Recanalization in Early Recurrent Ischemic Stroke: A Treatment Challenge

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Suppl. 1) ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
Huong Bich Thi Nguyen ◽  
Thang Huy Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Artery Occlusion ◽  
Large Artery ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Endovascular Recanalization

Reperfusion therapy is the most effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke. At present, many clinical studies have shown that mechanical thrombectomy is efficient and safe for acute ischemic stroke of large artery occlusion disease in the time window of 24 h. However, there is limited information on the safety and effectiveness of this technique in cases of recurrent ischemic stroke. We report a case of early recurrent stroke of the anterior circulation after a week of the first stroke. Imaging examinations showed that there existed occlusion of corresponding vessels and obvious ischemic penumbra. Symptoms of the patient were progressive worsening and medical treatment failed; therefore, the corresponding vessel was opened. The low perfusion status in brain tissue and clinical defect symptoms of the patients have improved a lot. In conclusion, thrombectomy for early recurrent ischemic stroke may be effective. Moreover, there may be a wider reperfusion time window for ischemic stroke patients.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of DWI-negative acute ischemic stroke

Neurology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian L. Edlow ◽  
Shelley Hurwitz ◽  
Jonathan A. Edlow
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Clinical Diagnosis ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
Posterior Circulation ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Ovid Medline ◽  
Level Data

Objective:To determine the prevalence of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)–negative acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and to identify clinical characteristics of patients with DWI-negative AIS.Methods:We systematically searched PubMed and Ovid/MEDLINE for relevant studies between 1992, the year that the DWI sequence entered clinical practice, and 2016. Studies were included based upon enrollment of consecutive patients presenting with a clinical diagnosis of AIS prior to imaging. Meta-analysis was performed to synthesize study-level data, estimate DWI-negative stroke prevalence, and estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for clinical characteristics associated with DWI-negative stroke.Results:Twelve articles including 3,236 AIS patients were included. The meta-analytic synthesis yielded a pooled prevalence of DWI-negative AIS of 6.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.9–9.3. In the 5 studies that reported proportion data for DWI-negative and DWI-positive AIS based on the ischemic vascular territory (n = 1,023 AIS patients), DWI-negative stroke was strongly associated with posterior circulation ischemia, as determined by clinical diagnosis at hospital discharge or repeat imaging (OR 5.1, 95% CI 2.3–11.6, p < 0.001).Conclusions:A small but significant percentage of patients with AIS have a negative DWI scan. Patients with neurologic deficits consistent with posterior circulation ischemia have 5 times the odds of having a negative DWI scan compared to patients with anterior circulation ischemia. AIS remains a clinical diagnosis and urgent reperfusion therapy should be considered even when an initial DWI scan is negative.

Abstract TP8: Safety And Outcome After Endovascular Reperfusion Therapy In Elderly Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyam Prabhakaran ◽  
Kevin N Sheth ◽  
John B Terry ◽  
Raul G Nogueira ◽  
Anat Horev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Neural Plasticity ◽  
Reperfusion Therapy ◽  
P Value ◽  
Nihss Score ◽  
Good Outcome ◽  
Initial Severity ◽  
Baseline Factors

Background: Age is a strong predictor of outcomes following acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Conflicting data exist on whether endovascular reperfusion therapy (ERT) should be offered to patients over 80 years of age. We compared the safety and efficacy of ERT in elderly (> 80 years) compared to non-elderly (< 80 years) patients with AIS. Methods: We collected data from a large multi-center prospective registry of AIS patients treated with ERT. Data were available on demographics, initial severity, angiographic results, hemorrhagic complications using the ECASS criteria, and 3-month functional outcomes using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score was used to grade reperfusion. We compared baseline factors, procedural results, and clinical outcomes in those over > 80 years versus those < 80 years. P-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Among 1077 patients with anterior circulation AIS, 223 (20.7%) were > 80 years. Elderly patients were more likely to have atrial fibrillation (54.3% vs. 31.4%, P < 0.001) but less likely to have diabetes (16.1% vs. 24.6%; P=0.046) or smoking (13.2% vs. 32.6%, P<0.001) history. Both groups were similar in other baseline factors, initial NIHSS score, location of occlusions, time from onset to groin puncture. TIMI 2 or 3 reperfusion was achieved in 64.5% of those > 80 vs. 70.7% in those < 80 (P=0.080). Rates of symptomatic hemorrhage and any intracranial hemorrhage were not different between groups. Good outcome at 3 months (mRS 0-2) was noted in 16.5% of elderly compared to 41.5% of non-elderly patients (P<0.001). Amongst elderly patients, the only independent predictor of good outcome was initial NIHSS score (adj. OR 0.882, 95% CI 0.821-0.948); good outcomes were achieved in 32.1% of those with NIHSS score < 10, 16.8% with NIHSS score 11-20, and only 5.9% with NIHSS score > 20. Conclusions: Patients > 80 years account for over one-fifth of those treated with ERT in this large registry and had worse outcomes compared with those < 80 years despite similar initial severity, time to treatment, and procedural results. Other factors such as increased baseline disability, more rapid time to completed infarction, and reduced neural plasticity may be contributing to these findings.

A novel nomogram for predicting prognosis after mechanical thrombectomy in patients with acute ischemic stroke

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiling Sun ◽  
Feng Zhou ◽  
Guoxing Zhang ◽  
Jiankang Hou ◽  
Yukai Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Blood Glucose ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Mechanical Thrombectomy ◽  
Bridging Therapy ◽  
Anterior Circulation ◽  
Interval Time ◽  
Good Outcome

Background: Mounting evidence has shown that mechanical thrombectomy [MT] improves clinical outcomes for large vessel occlusions [LVOs] in patients with acute ischemic stroke [AIS] of the anterior circulation. The present study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of risk factors associated with clinical outcomes in AIS patients receiving MT. Methods: A total of 212 consecutive patients who underwent MT for AIS were enrolled in the present study. Clinical characteristics were recorded at admission. Two endpoints were defined according to the 3-month modified Rankin scale [mRS] score after AIS [good outcome, mRS 0-2; and death, mRS 6]. Additionally, we compared the clinical outcomes and safety of MT alone and bridging therapy in AIS patients. Results: Of the 212 patients treated with MT, 114 [53.77%] patients had a good outcome and 31 [14.62%] died. The incidence of a worse outcome after MT was significantly elevated in males and patients with high WBC counts, high admission blood glucose levels, high baseline NIHSS scores and a long interval time from groin puncture to reperfusion in AIS patients treated with MT after adjustment for covariates [P<0.05]; these risk factors were further confirmed by our constructed nomograms. In addition, we observed no significant benefit of bridging therapy compared to MT alone in AIS patients. Conclusion: Our constructed nomogram based on male sex, admission WBC, admission blood glucose, NIHSS, and the interval time from groin puncture to reperfusion predicts prognosis after mechanical thrombectomy in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Abstract TP397: Validation of a Pneumonia Score in Acute Stroke

Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara K Schepp ◽  
Kyra J Becker ◽  
W.T. Longstreth ◽  
David L Tirschwell
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Acute Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
The Other ◽  
Discharge Diagnosis ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Diagnosis Codes ◽  
Time Of Admission

INTRODUCTION: Accurate prediction of pneumonia (PNA) risk after stroke would 1) allow clinicians to target interventions to patients at highest risk, and 2) help researchers to determine the efficacy of those interventions. We previously derived a PNA risk score based on data available at the time of admission, purposefully leaving out information on swallowing function, which may not be available at time of admission. Items for the 11-point score and point values were: age > 75 (2), male (1), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score > 10 (2), mechanical ventilation (4), coronary artery disease (1), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1). In a retrospective single-hospital cohort of 1,924 patients with acute ischemic stroke and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), we used medical records and discharge diagnosis codes to derive the score: C-statistic = .79 (95% CI, .76 - .81). In the current study, we tested whether the score could accurately predict PNA in two other cohorts. METHODS: The one cohort (n=398 with acute ischemic stroke or ICH) was obtained retrospectively and presented to various hospitals within the same city during a time period prior to the derivation cohort. Data on predictor variables and the outcome of PNA were obtained from medical records and discharge diagnosis codes. The other cohort (n=89 with acute ischemic stroke) was a subset of the derivation cohort. Data were collected prospectively, and the diagnosis of PNA was ascertained using rigorous criteria that included clinical, radiographic, and culture data. RESULTS: Within the retrospective cohort, PNA was diagnosed in 46 (12%), and the score achieved a C-statistic of .71 (95% CI, .66 -.75). Within the prospective cohort, pneumonia was diagnosed in 9 (10%), and the C-statistic for the score was .88 (95% CI, .79 -.94). CONCLUSION: The predictive value of the PNA score was validated in two additional cohorts, one with data collected retrospectively and the other, prospectively. The score performed best within the prospective cohort, but sample size was relatively small and the 89 patients were a subset of the derivation cohort. Further refinement and validation of the score is planned.

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