Cardinal Numbers: Changing Patterns of Malaria and Mortality in Rome, 494–1850

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Reilly
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Cardinal Numbers ◽  
Changing Patterns

The use of demographic data about cardinal mortality drawn from Salvador Miranda’s “Cardinals of the Holy Roman Church” archive confirms and quantifies the greater vulnerability of northern Europeans to Rome’s malarial fevers relative to their Roman counterparts. Non-Italian visitors to Rome suffered about three times the rate of malaria deaths as did Italians and Greeks, who had acquired various defenses against malaria. Northern Italians were far less susceptible than expected to Rome’s malarial fevers, however, whereas Iberian visitors to Rome were far more so. The eventual decline of malaria in Rome was not so much a function of climate change as of Rome’s steady post-1600 population growth.

scholarly journals Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12901-12906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diane R. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Seed Production ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Floral Display ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Flower Number ◽  
Early Snowmelt ◽  
The Impact

How climate change influences the dynamics of plant populations is not well understood, as few plant studies have measured responses of vital rates to climatic variables and modeled the impact on population growth. The present study used 25 y of demographic data to analyze how survival, growth, and fecundity respond to date of spring snowmelt for a subalpine plant. Fecundity was estimated by seed production (over 15 y) and also divided into flower number, fruit set, seeds per fruit, and escape from seed predation. Despite no apparent effects on flower number, plants produced more seeds in years with later snowmelt. Survival and probability of flowering were reduced by early snowmelt in the previous year. Based on demographic models, earlier snowmelt with warming is expected to lead to negative population growth, driven especially by changes in seedling establishment and seed production. These results provide a rare example of how climate change is expected to influence the dynamics of a plant population. They furthermore illustrate the potential for strong population impacts even in the absence of more commonly reported visual signs, such as earlier blooming or reduced floral display in early melting years.

Wave-Powered Desalination

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Stiber ◽  
Asfaw Beyene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
Specific Region ◽  
Wave Power ◽  
Wave Energy Conversion ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Sustainable Resources ◽  
Modeling Software ◽  
The Cost

Climate change, drought, population growth and increased energy and water costs are all forces driving exploration into alternative, sustainable resources. The abundance of untapped wave energy often presents an opportunity for research into exploiting this resource to meet the energy and water needs of populated coastal regions. This paper investigates the potential and impact of harnessing wave energy for the purpose of seawater desalination. First the SWAN wave modeling software was used to evaluate the size and character of the wave resource. These data are used to estimate the cost of water for wave-powered desalination taking a specific region as a case example. The results indicate that, although the cost of water from this technology is not economically competitive at this time, the large available resource confirms the viability of significantly supplementing current freshwater supplies. The results also confirm that research into the feasibility of wave power as a source of energy and water in the area is warranted, particularly as water and energy become more scarce and expensive coinciding with the maturity of commercial wave energy conversion.

scholarly journals Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 80-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Nordio ◽  
Antonella Zanobetti ◽  
Elena Colicino ◽  
Itai Kloog ◽  
Joel Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Us ◽  
Changing Patterns

scholarly journals The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hall ◽  
T. P. Dawson ◽  
J. I. Macdiarmid ◽  
R.B. Matthews ◽  
P. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. J. van Soesbergen ◽  
M. Mulligan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Water Quantity ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Gas Extraction ◽  
Peruvian Amazon ◽  
Rural Urban Migration

Abstract. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld (www.policysupport.org/waterworld) to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural-to-urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined plausible scenarios of climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural–urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon.

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

AbstractPopulation growth metrics such asR0are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species’ fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density, and dispersal may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities, and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only inR0may be misleading.

scholarly journals Achieving ‘Active’ 30 Minute Cities: How Feasible Is It to Reach Work within 30 Minutes Using Active Transport Modes?

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Alan Both ◽  
Lucy Gunn ◽  
Carl Higgs ◽  
Melanie Davern ◽  
Afshin Jafari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Active Transport ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Transport Mode ◽  
Transport Modes

Confronted with rapid urbanization, population growth, traffic congestion, and climate change, there is growing interest in creating cities that support active transport modes including walking, cycling, or public transport. The ‘30 minute city’, where employment is accessible within 30 min by active transport, is being pursued in some cities to reduce congestion and foster local living. This paper examines the spatial relationship between employment, the skills of residents, and transport opportunities, to answer three questions about Australia’s 21 largest cities: (1) What percentage of workers currently commute to their workplace within 30 min? (2) If workers were to shift to an active transport mode, what percent could reach their current workplace within 30 min? and (3) If it were possible to relocate workers closer to their employment or relocate employment closer to their home, what percentage could reach work within 30 min by each mode? Active transport usage in Australia is low, with public transport, walking, and cycling making up 16.8%, 2.8%, and 1.1% respectively of workers’ commutes. Cycling was found to have the most potential for achieving the 30 min city, with an estimated 29.5% of workers able to reach their current workplace were they to shift to cycling. This increased to 69.1% if workers were also willing and able to find a similar job closer to home, potentially reducing commuting by private motor vehicle from 79.3% to 30.9%.

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