scholarly journals Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5277-5297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc d’Orgeville ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Basin

Abstract In the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed, either preindustrial or modern; however, it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations, the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS), barotropic circulation, freshwater and heat fluxes, wind stress curl, sea ice, and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However, they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis, the advection to the Bering Sea of “spice” anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper, the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations, the natural North Pacific decadal variability, as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO), remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong, then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected, except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow.

scholarly journals Influence of ENSO on Pacific Decadal Variability: An Analysis Based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6136-6151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Yan Xue
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Interannual Time Scale ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Decadal Time Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Pacific decadal variability (PDV) is investigated by comparing two 500-yr simulations with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System coupled model. One simulation is a no-ENSO run, in which model daily sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is relaxed to the observed climatology. The other simulation is a fully coupled run and retains ENSO variability. The PDV considered in this study is the first two empirical orthogonal functions of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific: the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The PDO in the no-ENSO run can be clearly identified. Without ENSO, the PDO displays relatively higher variance at the decadal time scale and no spectral peak at the interannual time scale. In the ENSO run, the PDO variability increases slightly. ENSO not only enhances the variability of the PDO at the interannual time scale, but also shifts the PDO to longer time scales—both consistent with observations. ENSO modulates the Aleutian low and associated surface wind over the North Pacific. The latter, in turn, helps establish a more persistent PDO in the ENSO run. The results also indicate a PDO modulation of global ENSO impacts and the linearity in the superposition of the ENSO-forced and PDO-related atmospheric anomalies. Compared to observations, the NPGO in both simulations lacks power at the time scale longer than 30 yr. On the decadal time scale, the variability of the NPGO is weaker in the ENSO run than in the no-ENSO run.

Pacific Decadal Variability: The Tropical Pacific Mode and the North Pacific Mode*

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1101-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
R. Gallimore ◽  
R. Jacob ◽  
D. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2917-2936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Odd Helge Otterå ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Huijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The North ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific

scholarly journals Decadal Variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under Global Warming: The Weakening Response and Its Mechanism

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (21) ◽  
pp. 9181-9193
Author(s):  
Sheng Wu ◽  
Zheng-Yu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Damping Rate ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractWe investigate the response of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic under global warming and its mechanism in this study. To do so, we use four models (BCC-CSM1–1, CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-LR) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), focusing on three global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our analysis shows that the intensified global warming leads to a decrease in amplitude of both the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), resulting in reduced decadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. In comparison, interannual variability is less impacted by global warming and has a tendency to increase, which leads to a shift of spectral power from decadal toward interannual variability. We then show the weakening decadal variability is caused partly by the weakened forcing of atmospheric heat flux variability, and partly by the increased SST damping rate. In addition, an enhanced upper-ocean stratification under global warming also contributes to the acceleration of Rossby waves, and a shift of decadal variability spectral power toward a shorter period.

scholarly journals Monthly maps of sea surface dissolved inorganic carbon in the North Pacific: Basin-wide distribution and seasonal variation

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (8) ◽  
pp. 3843-3850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayaka Yasunaka ◽  
Yukihiro Nojiri ◽  
Shin-ichiro Nakaoka ◽  
Tsuneo Ono ◽  
Hitoshi Mukai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Basin

scholarly journals The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and Mechanisms of Its Decadal Variability in CMIP5 Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2487-2509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daling Li Yi ◽  
Bolan Gan ◽  
Lixin Wu ◽  
Arthur J. Miller
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
North Pacific Gyre Oscillation ◽  
North Pacific Gyre ◽  
The North Pacific

Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) product and 37 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) database, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and its decadal generation mechanisms are evaluated by studying the second leading modes of North Pacific sea surface height (SSH) and sea level pressure (SLP) as well as their dynamical connections. It is found that 17 out of 37 models can well simulate the spatial pattern and decadal time scales (10–30 yr) of the NPGO mode, which resembles the observation-based SODA results. Dynamical connections between the oceanic mode (NPGO) and the atmospheric mode [North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)] are strongly evident in both SODA and the 17 models. In particular, about 30%–40% of the variance of the NPGO variability, which generally exhibits a preferred time scale, can be explained by the NPO variability, which has no preferred time scale in most models. Two mechanisms of the decadal NPGO variability that had been proposed by previous studies are evaluated in SODA and the 17 models: 1) stochastic atmospheric forcing and oceanic spatial resonance and 2) low-frequency atmospheric teleconnections excited by the equatorial Pacific. Evaluation reveals that these two mechanisms are valid in SODA and two models (CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM5.2), whereas two models (CMCC-CM and CMCC-CMS) prefer the first mechanism and another two models (CMCC-CESM and IPSL-CM5B-LR) prefer the second mechanism. The other 11 models have no evident relations with the proposed two mechanisms, suggesting the need for a fundamental understanding of the decadal NPGO variability in the future.

The Influence of ENSO on the Generation of Decadal Variability in the North Pacific*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 667-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
In-Sik Kang ◽  
Oliver Timm
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Diagnostic Study ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract This diagnostic study explores the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific resulting from the asymmetry of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the nonlinearity of the atmospheric tropical–extratropical teleconnection. Nonlinear regression analysis of the North Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric fields with respect to the ENSO index reveals that the main teleconnection centers shift between El Niño and La Niña years. This asymmetry in the ENSO response, together with the skewed probabilistic distribution of ENSO itself, may contribute to the generation of the long-term decadal variability of sea surface temperatures in the extratropical North Pacific. It is argued that this hypothesis may explain the significant variance of the observed Pacific decadal oscillation in the extratropics.

scholarly journals Mapping of sea surface nutrients in the North Pacific: Basin-wide distribution and seasonal to interannual variability

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (11) ◽  
pp. 7756-7771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayaka Yasunaka ◽  
Yukihiro Nojiri ◽  
Shin-ichiro Nakaoka ◽  
Tsuneo Ono ◽  
Frank A. Whitney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Basin
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