scholarly journals Precipitation Nowcasting by a Spectral-Based Nonlinear Stochastic Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabino Metta ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Luca Ferraris ◽  
Nicola Rebora ◽  
Antonello Provenzale
Keyword(s):  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Amplitude Distribution ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Spectral Space ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Stochastic Evolution ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Study Case

Abstract A novel rainfall nowcasting method based on the combination of an empirical nonlinear transformation of measured precipitation fields and the stochastic evolution in spectral space of the transformed fields is introduced. The power spectrum and the amplitude distribution of precipitation are kept constant during the forecast, and a Langevin-type model is used to evolve the Fourier phases. The application of the method to a study case is illustrated, and it is shown that, with this procedure, a forecast skill can be obtained that is superior to those provided by Eulerian or Lagrangian persistence for a lead time of up to two hours.

Dependence of Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast skill of CFSv2 on initial conditions and the role of bias in SST boundary forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella Jes Varghese ◽  
Kavirajan Rajendran ◽  
Sajani Surendran ◽  
Arindam Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Central Pacific

<p>Indian summer monsoon seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), are analysed to investigate causes for the highest Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecast skill of CFSv2 with February (3-month lead time, L3) ICs. Although theory suggests forecast skill should degrade with increase in lead-time, CFSv2 shows highest skill with L3, due to its forecasting of ISMR excess of 1983 which other ICs failed to forecast. In contrast to observation, in CFSv2, ISMR extremes are largely decided by sea surface temperature (SST) variation over central Pacific (NINO3.4) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where ISMR excess (deficit) is associated with La Niña (El Niño) or cooling (warming) over NINO3.4. In 1983, CFSv2 with L3 ICs forecasted strong La Niña during summer, which resulted in 1983 ISMR excess. In contrast, in observation, near normal SSTs prevailed over NINO3.4 and ISMR excess was due to variation of convection over equatorial Indian Ocean, which CFSv2 fails to capture with all ICs. CFSv2 reforecasts with late-April/early-May ICs are found to have highest deterministic ISMR forecast skill, if 1983 is excluded and Indian monsoon seasonal biases are also reduced. During the transitional ENSO in Boreal summer of 1983, faster and intense cooling of NINO3.4 SSTs in L3, could be due to larger dynamical drift with longer lead time of forecasting, compared to L0. Boreal summer ENSO forecast skill is also found to be lowest for L3 which gradually decreases from June to September. Rainfall occurrence with strong cold bias over NINO3.4, is because of the existence of stronger ocean-atmosphere coupling in CFSv2, but with a shift of the SST-rainfall relationship pattern to slightly colder SSTs than the observed. Our analysis suggests the need for a systematic approach to minimize bias in SST boundary forcing in CFSv2, to achieve improved ISMR forecasts.</p>

LONG RANGE CORRELATION PROPERTIES OF AFTERSHOCK RELAXATION SIGNALS

Fractals ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
pp. 839-847 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. VESPIGNANI ◽  
A. PETRI ◽  
A. ALIPPI ◽  
G. PAPARO ◽  
M. COSTANTINI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Acoustic Emission ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Amplitude Distribution ◽  
Relaxation Processes ◽  
Critical Dynamics ◽  
Range Correlation ◽  
Correlation Properties

Relaxation processes taking place after microfracturing of laboratory samples give rise to ultrasonic acoustic emission signals. Statistical analysis of the resulting time series has revealed many features which are characteristic of critical phenomena. In particular, the autocorrelation functions obey a power-law behavior, implying a power spectrum of the kind 1/f. Also the amplitude distribution N(V) of such signals follows a power law, and the obtained exponents are consistent with those found in other experiments: N(V) dV≃V–γ dV, with γ=1.7±0.2. We also analyzed the distribution N(τ) of the delay time τ between two consecutive acoustic emission events. We found that a N(τ) distribution rather close to a power law constitutes a common feature of all the recorded signals. These experimental results can be considered as a striking evidence for a critical dynamics underlying the microfracturing processes.

Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Rainfall Runoff Process

1984 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srinivas G. Rao ◽  
Ramachandra A. Rao
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model

scholarly journals Rapid Cyclogenesis from a Mesoscale Frontal Wave on an Atmospheric River: Impacts on Forecast Skill and Predictability during Atmospheric River Landfall

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1779-1794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Martin ◽  
F. Martin Ralph ◽  
Anna Wilson ◽  
Laurel DeHaan ◽  
Brian Kawzenuk
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Water Vapor Flux ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Frontal Wave ◽  
Atmospheric River

Abstract Mesoscale frontal waves have the potential to modify the hydrometeorological impacts of atmospheric rivers (ARs). The small scale and rapid growth of these waves pose significant forecast challenges. We examined a frontal wave that developed a secondary cyclone during the landfall of an extreme AR in Northern California. We document rapid changes in significant storm features including integrated vapor transport and precipitation and connect these to high forecast uncertainty at 1–4-days’ lead time. We also analyze the skill of the Global Ensemble Forecast System in predicting secondary cyclogenesis and relate secondary cyclogenesis prediction skill to forecasts of AR intensity, AR duration, and upslope water vapor flux in the orographic controlling layer. Leveraging a measure of reference accuracy designed for cyclogenesis, we found forecasts were only able to skillfully predict secondary cyclogenesis for lead times less than 36 h. Forecast skill in predicting the large-scale pressure pattern and integrated vapor transport was lost by 96-h lead time. For lead times longer than 36 h, the failure to predict secondary cyclogenesis led to significant uncertainty in forecast AR intensity and to long bias in AR forecast duration. Failure to forecast a warm front associated with the secondary cyclone at lead times less than 36 h caused large overprediction of upslope water vapor flux, an important indicator of orographic precipitation forcing. This study highlights the need to identify offshore mesoscale frontal waves in real time and to characterize the forecast uncertainty inherent in these events when creating hydrometeorological forecasts.

Green supplier selection and order allocation: a nonlinear stochastic model

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Pooria Hashemzahi ◽  
Amirhossein Azadnia ◽  
Masoud Rahiminezhad Galankashi ◽  
Syed Ahmad Helmi ◽  
Farimah Mokhatab Rafiei
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Order Allocation ◽  
Green Supplier Selection ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model

scholarly journals Expansion for the Moments of a Nonlinear Stochastic Model

1996 ◽  
Vol 77 (16) ◽  
pp. 3280-3283 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. N. Drozdov ◽  
M. Morillo
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model

scholarly journals Linking Nonlinearity and Non-Gaussianity of Planetary Wave Behavior by the Fokker–Planck Equation

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 2098-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Berner
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Multiplicative Noise ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Fokker Planck Equation ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Fokker Planck

Abstract To link prominent nonlinearities in the dynamics of 500-hPa geopotential heights to non-Gaussian features in their probability density, a nonlinear stochastic model of atmospheric planetary wave behavior is developed. An analysis of geopotential heights generated by extended integrations of a GCM suggests that a stochastic model and its associated Fokker–Planck equation call for a nonlinear drift and multiplicative noise. All calculations are carried out in the reduced phase space spanned by the leading EOFs. It is demonstrated that this nonlinear stochastic model of planetary wave behavior captures the non-Gaussian features in the probability density function of atmospheric states to a remarkable degree. Moreover, it not only predicts global temporal characteristics, but also the nonlinear, state-dependent divergence of state trajectories. In the context of this empirical modeling, it is discussed on which time scale a stochastic model is expected to approximate the behavior of a continuous deterministic process. The reduced model is then used to determine the importance of the nonlinearities in the drift and the role of the multiplicative noise. While the nonlinearities in the drift are crucial for a good representation of planetary wave behavior, multiplicative (i.e., state dependent) noise is not absolutely essential. It is found that a major contributor to the stochastic component is the Branstator–Kushnir oscillation, which acts as a fluctuating force for physical processes with even longer time scales, like those that project on the Arctic Oscillation pattern. In this model, the oscillation is represented by strongly correlated noise.

Predicting the Cloud Patterns for the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Through a Low-Order Stochastic Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Chen ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Cloud Patterns

AbstractWe assess the predictability limits of the large-scale cloud patterns in the boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISO), which are measured by the infrared brightness temperature, a proxy for convective activity. A recent developed nonlinear data analysis technique, nonlinear Laplacian spectrum analysis (NLSA), is applied to the brightness temperature data, defining two spatial modes with high intermittency associated with the BSISO time series. Then a recent developed data-driven physics-constrained low-ordermodeling strategy is applied to these time series. The result is a four dimensional system with two observed BSISO variables and two hidden variables involving correlated multiplicative noise through the nonlinear energyconserving interaction. With the optimal parameters calibrated by information theory, the non-Gaussian fat tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs), the autocorrelations and the power spectrum of the model signals almost perfectly match those of the observed data. An ensemble prediction scheme incorporating an effective on-line data assimilation algorithm for determining the initial ensemble of the hidden variables shows the useful prediction skill in the non-El Niño years is at least 30 days and even reaches 55 days in those years with regular oscillations and the skillful prediction lasts for 18 days in the strong El Niño year (year 1998). Furthermore, the ensemble spread succeeds in indicating the forecast uncertainty. Although the reduced linear model with time-periodic stable-unstable damping is able to capture the non-Gaussian fat tailed PDFs, it is less skillful in forecasting the BSISO in the years with irregular oscillations. The failure of the ensemble spread to include the truth also indicates failure in quantification of the uncertainty. In addition, without the energy-conserving nonlinear interactions, the linear model is sensitive with parameter variations. mcwfnally, the twin experiment with nonlinear stochastic model has comparable skill as the observed data, suggesting the nonlinear stochastic model has significant skill for determining the predictability limits of the large-scale cloud patterns of the BSISO.

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