Predicting the Cloud Patterns for the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Through a Low-Order Stochastic Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Chen ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Cloud Patterns

AbstractWe assess the predictability limits of the large-scale cloud patterns in the boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISO), which are measured by the infrared brightness temperature, a proxy for convective activity. A recent developed nonlinear data analysis technique, nonlinear Laplacian spectrum analysis (NLSA), is applied to the brightness temperature data, defining two spatial modes with high intermittency associated with the BSISO time series. Then a recent developed data-driven physics-constrained low-ordermodeling strategy is applied to these time series. The result is a four dimensional system with two observed BSISO variables and two hidden variables involving correlated multiplicative noise through the nonlinear energyconserving interaction. With the optimal parameters calibrated by information theory, the non-Gaussian fat tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs), the autocorrelations and the power spectrum of the model signals almost perfectly match those of the observed data. An ensemble prediction scheme incorporating an effective on-line data assimilation algorithm for determining the initial ensemble of the hidden variables shows the useful prediction skill in the non-El Niño years is at least 30 days and even reaches 55 days in those years with regular oscillations and the skillful prediction lasts for 18 days in the strong El Niño year (year 1998). Furthermore, the ensemble spread succeeds in indicating the forecast uncertainty. Although the reduced linear model with time-periodic stable-unstable damping is able to capture the non-Gaussian fat tailed PDFs, it is less skillful in forecasting the BSISO in the years with irregular oscillations. The failure of the ensemble spread to include the truth also indicates failure in quantification of the uncertainty. In addition, without the energy-conserving nonlinear interactions, the linear model is sensitive with parameter variations. mcwfnally, the twin experiment with nonlinear stochastic model has comparable skill as the observed data, suggesting the nonlinear stochastic model has significant skill for determining the predictability limits of the large-scale cloud patterns of the BSISO.

Predicting Monsoon Intraseasonal Precipitation using a Low-Order Nonlinear Stochastic Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 4403-4427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Chen ◽  
Andrew J. Majda ◽  
C. T. Sabeerali ◽  
R. S. Ajayamohan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Reconstruction Algorithm ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Low Order

Abstract The authors assess the predictability of large-scale monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) as measured by precipitation. An advanced nonlinear data analysis technique, nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), is applied to the daily precipitation data, resulting in two spatial modes associated with the MISO. The large-scale MISO patterns are predicted in two steps. First, a physics-constrained low-order nonlinear stochastic model is developed to predict the highly intermittent time series of these two MISO modes. The model involves two observed MISO variables and two hidden variables that characterize the strong intermittency and random oscillations in the MISO time series. It is shown that the precipitation MISO indices can be skillfully predicted from 20 to 50 days in advance. Second, an effective and practical spatiotemporal reconstruction algorithm is designed, which overcomes the fundamental difficulty in most data decomposition techniques with lagged embedding that requires extra information in the future beyond the predicted range of the time series. The predicted spatiotemporal patterns often have comparable skill to the MISO indices. One of the main advantages of the proposed model is that a short (3 year) training period is sufficient to describe the essential characteristics of the MISO and retain skillful predictions. In addition, both model statistics and prediction skill indicate that outgoing longwave radiation is an accurate proxy for precipitation in describing the MISO. Notably, the length of the lagged embedding window used in NLSA is crucial in capturing the main features and assessing the predictability of MISOs.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Assimilating All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances on Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Convection

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (8) ◽  
pp. 3203-3224
Author(s):  
Man-Yau Chan ◽  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Xingchao Chen ◽  
L. Ruby Leung
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite ◽  
Infrared Radiances ◽  
Cloud Patterns ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract Geostationary infrared satellite observations are spatially dense [>1/(20 km)2] and temporally frequent (>1 h−1). These suggest the possibility of using these observations to constrain subsynoptic features over data-sparse regions, such as tropical oceans. In this study, the potential impacts of assimilating water vapor channel brightness temperature (WV-BT) observations from the geostationary Meteorological Satellite 7 (Meteosat-7) on tropical convection analysis and prediction were systematically examined through a series of ensemble data assimilation experiments. WV-BT observations were assimilated hourly into convection-permitting ensembles using Penn State’s ensemble square root filter (EnSRF). Comparisons against the independently observed Meteosat-7 window channel brightness temperature (Window-BT) show that the assimilation of WV-BT generally improved the intensities and locations of large-scale cloud patterns at spatial scales larger than 100 km. However, comparisons against independent soundings indicate that the EnSRF analysis produced a much stronger dry bias than the no data assimilation experiment. This strong dry bias is associated with the use of the simulated WV-BT from the prior mean during the EnSRF analysis step. A stochastic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (NoMeanSF) is proposed. The NoMeanSF algorithm was able to assimilate the WV-BT without causing such a strong dry bias and the quality of the analyses’ horizontal cloud pattern is similar to EnSRF’s analyses. Finally, deterministic forecasts initiated from the NoMeanSF analyses possess better horizontal cloud patterns above 500 km than those of the EnSRF. These results suggest that it might be better to assimilate all-sky WV-BT through the NoMeanSF algorithm than the EnSRF algorithm.

scholarly journals Linking Nonlinearity and Non-Gaussianity of Planetary Wave Behavior by the Fokker–Planck Equation

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 2098-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Berner
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Multiplicative Noise ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Fokker Planck Equation ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Fokker Planck

Abstract To link prominent nonlinearities in the dynamics of 500-hPa geopotential heights to non-Gaussian features in their probability density, a nonlinear stochastic model of atmospheric planetary wave behavior is developed. An analysis of geopotential heights generated by extended integrations of a GCM suggests that a stochastic model and its associated Fokker–Planck equation call for a nonlinear drift and multiplicative noise. All calculations are carried out in the reduced phase space spanned by the leading EOFs. It is demonstrated that this nonlinear stochastic model of planetary wave behavior captures the non-Gaussian features in the probability density function of atmospheric states to a remarkable degree. Moreover, it not only predicts global temporal characteristics, but also the nonlinear, state-dependent divergence of state trajectories. In the context of this empirical modeling, it is discussed on which time scale a stochastic model is expected to approximate the behavior of a continuous deterministic process. The reduced model is then used to determine the importance of the nonlinearities in the drift and the role of the multiplicative noise. While the nonlinearities in the drift are crucial for a good representation of planetary wave behavior, multiplicative (i.e., state dependent) noise is not absolutely essential. It is found that a major contributor to the stochastic component is the Branstator–Kushnir oscillation, which acts as a fluctuating force for physical processes with even longer time scales, like those that project on the Arctic Oscillation pattern. In this model, the oscillation is represented by strongly correlated noise.

Predicting the Real-Time Multivariate Madden–Julian Oscillation Index through a Low-Order Nonlinear Stochastic Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
pp. 2148-2169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan Chen ◽  
Andrew J. Majda
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Multiplicative Noise ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
The Real ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Model ◽  
Low Order

Abstract A new low-order nonlinear stochastic model is developed to improve the predictability of the Real-time Multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index (RMM index), which is a combined measure of convection and circulation. A recent data-driven, physics-constrained, low-order stochastic modeling procedure is applied to the RMM index. The result is a four-dimensional nonlinear stochastic model for the two observed RMM variables and two hidden variables involving correlated multiplicative noise defined through energy-conserving nonlinear interaction. The special structure of the low-order model allows efficient data assimilation for the initialization of the hidden variables that facilitates the ensemble prediction algorithm. An information-theoretic framework is applied to the calibration of model parameters over a short training phase of 3 yr. This framework involves generalizations of the anomaly pattern correlation, the RMS error, and the information deficiency in the model forecast. The nonlinear stochastic models show skillful prediction for 30 days on average in these metrics. More importantly, the predictions succeed in capturing the amplitudes of the RMM index and the useful skill of forecasting strong MJO events is around 40 days. Furthermore, information barriers to prediction for linear models imply the necessity of the nonlinear interactions between the observed and hidden variables as well as the multiplicative noise in these low-order stochastic models.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Large-Scale Circulation Affecting the Inter-Annual Precipitation Variability in Northern Sumatra Island during Boreal Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Yahya Darmawan ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Jia-Yuh Yu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Moisture Budget ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Sumatra Island ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to explore the contrasting characteristics of large-scale circulation that led to the precipitation anomalies over the northern parts of Sumatra Island. Further, the impact of varying the Asian–Australian Monsoon (AAM) was investigated for triggering the precipitation variability over the study area. The moisture budget analysis was applied to quantify the most dominant component that induces precipitation variability during the JJA (June, July, and August) period. Then, the composite analysis and statistical approach were applied to confirm the result of the moisture budget. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Anaysis Interim (ERA-Interim) from 1981 to 2016, we identified 9 (nine) dry and 6 (six) wet years based on precipitation anomalies, respectively. The dry years (wet years) anomalies over the study area were mostly supported by downward (upward) vertical velocity anomaly instead of other variables such as specific humidity, horizontal velocity, and evaporation. In the dry years (wet years), there is a strengthening (weakening) of the descent motion, which triggers a reduction (increase) of convection over the study area. The overall downward (upward) motion of westerly (easterly) winds appears to suppress (support) the convection and lead to negative (positive) precipitation anomaly in the whole region but with the largest anomaly over northern parts of Sumatra. The AAM variability proven has a significant role in the precipitation variability over the study area. A teleconnection between the AAM and other global circulations implies the precipitation variability over the northern part of Sumatra Island as a regional phenomenon. The large-scale tropical circulation is possibly related to the PWC modulation (Pacific Walker Circulation).

scholarly journals Subsidence Monitoring of Fill Area in Yan’an New District Based on Sentinel-1A Time Series Imagery

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3044
Author(s):  
Mingjie Liao ◽  
Rui Zhang ◽  
Jichao Lv ◽  
Bin Yu ◽  
Jiatai Pang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ground Deformation ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Deformation Monitoring ◽  
Chinese Loess Plateau ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Loess Area

In recent years, many cities in the Chinese loess plateau (especially in Shanxi province) have encountered ground subsidence problems due to the construction of underground projects and the exploitation of underground resources. With the completion of the world’s largest geotechnical project, called “mountain excavation and city construction,” in a collapsible loess area, the Yan’an city also appeared to have uneven ground subsidence. To obtain the spatial distribution characteristics and the time-series evolution trend of the subsidence, we selected Yan’an New District (YAND) as the specific study area and presented an improved time-series InSAR (TS-InSAR) method for experimental research. Based on 89 Sentinel-1A images collected between December 2017 to December 2020, we conducted comprehensive research and analysis on the spatial and temporal evolution of surface subsidence in YAND. The monitoring results showed that the YAND is relatively stable in general, with deformation rates mainly in the range of −10 to 10 mm/yr. However, three significant subsidence funnels existed in the fill area, with a maximum subsidence rate of 100 mm/yr. From 2017 to 2020, the subsidence funnels enlarged, and their subsidence rates accelerated. Further analysis proved that the main factors induced the severe ground subsidence in the study area, including the compressibility and collapsibility of loess, rapid urban construction, geological environment change, traffic circulation load, and dynamic change of groundwater. The experimental results indicated that the improved TS-InSAR method is adaptive to monitoring uneven subsidence of deep loess area. Moreover, related data and information would provide reference to the large-scale ground deformation monitoring and in similar loess areas.

scholarly journals Meso- and microscale sea-ice motion in the East Siberian Sea as determined from ERS-1 SAR Data

1999 ◽  
Vol 45 (150) ◽  
pp. 370-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Morris ◽  
Shusun Li ◽  
Martin Jeffries
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vector Fields ◽  
Lateral Displacement ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Sar Interferometry ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Pack Ice ◽  
Sar Data

Abstract Synthetic aperture radar- (SAR-)derived ice-motion vectors and SAR interferometry were used to study the sea-ice conditions in the region between the coast and 75° N (~ 560 km) in the East Siberian Sea in the vicinity of the Kolyma River. ERS-1 SAR data were acquired between 24 December 1993 and 30 March 1994 during the 3 day repeat Ice Phase of the satellite. The time series of the ice-motion vector fields revealed rapid (3 day) changes in the direction and displacement of the pack ice. Longer-term (≥ 1 month) trends also emerged which were related to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. On the basis of this time series, three sea-ice zones were identified: the near-shore, stationary-ice zone; a transitional-ice zone;and the pack-ice zone. Three 3 day interval and one 9 day interval interferometric sets (amplitude, correlation and phase diagrams) were generated for the end of December, the begining of February and mid-March. They revealed that the stationary-ice zone adjacent to the coast is in constant motion, primarily by lateral displacement, bending, tilting and rotation induced by atmospheric/oceanic forcing. The interferogram patterns change through time as the sea ice becomes thicker and a network of cracks becomes established in the ice cover. It was found that the major features in the interferograms were spatially correlated with sea-ice deformation features (cracks and ridges) and major discontinuities in ice thickness.

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