scholarly journals Mesoscale Simulation of Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Patrick Marchesiello ◽  
Christophe E. Menkes ◽  
Jérome Lefèvre ◽  
Emmanuel M. Vincent ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
The South ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecast model at ⅓° resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the present climate of the South Pacific. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown to reproduce a wide range of mesoscale convective systems. Tropical cyclones grow from the most intense of these systems formed along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and sometimes develop into hurricanes. The three-dimensional structure of simulated tropical cyclones is in excellent agreement with dropsondes and satellite observations. The mean seasonal and spatial distributions of TC genesis and occurrence are also in good agreement with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. It is noted, however, that the spatial pattern of TC activity is shifted to the northeast because of a similar bias in the environmental forcing. Over the whole genesis area, 8.2 ± 3.5 cyclones are produced seasonally in the model, compared with 6.6 ± 3.0 in the JTWC data. Part of the interannual variability is associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO-driven displacement of the SPCZ position produces a dipole pattern of correlation and results in a weaker correlation when the opposing correlations of the dipole are amalgamated over the entire South Pacific region. As a result, environmentally forced variability at the regional scale is relatively weak, that is, of comparable order to stochastic variability (±1.7 cyclones yr−1), which is estimated from a 10-yr climatological simulation. Stochastic variability appears essentially related to mesoscale interactions, which also affect TC tracks and the resulting occurrence.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and Its Relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6108-6122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Dowdy ◽  
Lixin Qi ◽  
David Jones ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Robert Fawcett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The South

Abstract Climatological features of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Ocean have been analyzed based on a new archive for the Southern Hemisphere. A vortex tracking and statistics package is used to examine features such as climatological maps of system intensity and the change in intensity with time, average tropical cyclone system movement, and system density. An examination is presented of the spatial variability of these features, as well as changes in relation to phase changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. A critical line is defined in this study based on maps of cyclone intensity to describe the statistical geographic boundary for cyclone intensification. During El Niño events, the critical line shifts equatorward, while during La Niña events the critical line is generally displaced poleward. Regional variability in tropical cyclone activity associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases is examined in relation to the variability of large-scale atmospheric or oceanic variables associated with tropical cyclone activity. Maps of the difference fields between different phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are examined for sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, lower-tropospheric vorticity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. Results are also examined in relation to the South Pacific convergence zone. The common region where each of the large-scale variables showed favorable conditions for cyclogenesis coincided with the location of maximum observed cyclogenesis for El Niño events as well as for La Niña years.

scholarly journals The Representation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (3) ◽  
pp. 841-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Harvey ◽  
James A. Renwick ◽  
Andrew M. Lorrey ◽  
Arona Ngari
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Surface Observations ◽  
Twentieth Century Reanalysis

Abstract The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate for South Pacific island nations and territories. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short- and long-term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its position and strength is strongly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to large interannual variability in rainfall across the southwest Pacific including seasonal droughts and pluvials. Currently much of the analysis about SPCZ activity has been restricted to the satellite observation period starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which is a three-dimensional atmospheric reconstruction based only on surface observations, is discussed for the period since 1908. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (version 2 and version 2c) in the satellite era is compared with other reanalyses and climate observation products. The 20CR performs well in the satellite era. Extra surface observations spanning the SPCZ region from the longitude of the Cook Islands has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908–57 between 20CRv2 and 20CRv2c. The well-established relationship with ENSO is observed in both the representation of mean SPCZ position and intensity, and this relationship remains consistent through the entire 1908–2011 period. This suggests that the ENSO–SPCZ relationship has remained similar over the course of the past century, and gives further evidence that 20CRv2c performs well back to 1908 over the southwest Pacific region.

scholarly journals The South Pacific Convergence Zone as Depicted in Reanalysis and Satellite Products

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Harvey Thomas Luke
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Extended Analysis

<p>The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.</p>

A 1300-year reconstruction of the South Pacific Convergence Zone using a Pacific-wide tree-ring network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippa Higgins ◽  
Jonathan Palmer ◽  
Christian Turney ◽  
Martin Andersen ◽  
Edward Cook
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
The South ◽  
Island Communities

&lt;p&gt;The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest driver of precipitation variability over South Pacific island communities during the austral warm season influencing the severity and duration of drought and the frequency of tropical cyclones. The SPCZ is known to exhibit variability on a range of timescales, from intra-seasonal to multidecadal variations, modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Despite its climatic and societal importance, determining the causes of low frequency variability in the SPCZ has been hampered by the short instrumental data record, with most comprehensive analyses since the satellite era. Here we report the first paleoclimate reconstruction of the SPCZ, allowing climate variability in the South Pacific region to be explored back to 700 CE. Our 1300-year reconstruction of the SPCZI (South Pacific Convergence Zone Index; the difference between mean sea level pressure between Apia, Samoa and Suva, Fiji) is based on a trans-Pacific network of precisely dated tree-ring proxies. Capturing SPCZ teleconnections from both sides of the Pacific has produced a robust, unbiased reconstruction with excellent reconstruction skill over the entire period. El Ni&amp;#241;o-Southern Oscillation periodicities (&amp;#8764;3-7 years) are pervasive throughout the SPCZI reconstruction. Multidecadal periodicities wax and wane, apparently coinciding with the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (c. 1000-1200 CE) and Little Ice Age (1300-1700 CE). We discuss some of the drivers of SPCZI variability including global dimming events. Our reconstruction helps improve our understanding of past hydroclimatic behaviour in the southwest Pacific and can be used to validate general circulation model projections for Pacific Island communities in the twenty-first century.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Application of Clustering Algorithms to TRMM Precipitation over the Tropical and South Pacific Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5767-5785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell Pike ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
The South ◽  
Cluster Assignment ◽  
Trmm Precipitation

AbstractUnderstanding multiscale rainfall variability in the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), a southeastward-oriented band of precipitating deep convection in the South Pacific, is critical for both the human and natural systems dependent on its rainfall, and for interpreting similar off-equatorial diagonal convection zones around the globe. A k-means clustering method is applied to daily austral summer (December–February) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite rainfall to extract representative spatial patterns of rainfall over the SPCZ region for the period 1998–2013. For a k = 4 clustering, pairs of clusters differ predominantly via spatial translation of the SPCZ diagonal, reflecting either warm or cool phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Within each of these ENSO phase pairs, one cluster exhibits intense precipitation along the SPCZ while the other features weakened rainfall. Cluster temporal behavior is analyzed to investigate higher-frequency forcings (e.g., the Madden–Julian oscillation and synoptic-scale disturbances) that trigger deep convection where SSTs are sufficiently warm. Pressure-level winds and specific humidity from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are composited with respect to daily cluster assignment to investigate differences between active and quiescent SPCZ conditions to reveal the conditions supporting enhanced or suppressed SPCZ precipitation, such as low-level poleward moisture transport from the equator. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of TRMM precipitation are computed to relate the “modal view” of SPCZ variability associated with the EOFs to the “state view” associated with the clusters. Finally, the cluster number is increased to illustrate the change in TRMM rainfall patterns as additional degrees of freedom are permitted.

scholarly journals Impact of Tropical Cyclones on the Heat Budget of the South Pacific Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 1882-1906 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Jullien ◽  
C. E. Menkes ◽  
P. Marchesiello ◽  
N. C. Jourdain ◽  
M. Lengaigne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Subsurface Layer ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Vertical Advection

Abstract The present study investigates the integrated ocean response to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South Pacific convergence zone through a complete ocean heat budget. The TC impact analysis is based on the comparison between two long-term (1979–2003) oceanic simulations forced by a mesoscale atmospheric model solution in which extreme winds associated with cyclones are either maintained or filtered. The simulations provide a statistically robust experiment that fills a gap in the current modeling literature between coarse-resolution and short-term studies. The authors’ results show a significant thermal response of the ocean to at least 500-m depth, driven by competing mixing and upwelling mechanisms. As suggested in previous studies, vertical mixing largely explains surface cooling induced by TCs. However, TC-induced upwelling of deeper waters plays an unexpected role as it partly balances the warming of subsurface waters induced by vertical mixing. Below 100 m, vertical advection results in cooling that persists long after the storm passes and has a signature in the ocean climatology. The heat lost through TC-induced vertical advection is exported outside the cyclogenesis area with strong interannual variability. In addition, 60% of the heat input below the surface during the cyclone season is released back to the oceanic mixed layer through winter entrainment and then to the atmosphere. Therefore, seasonal modulation reduces the mean surface heat flux due to TCs to about 3 × 10−3 PW in this region exposed to 10%–15% of the world’s cyclones. The resulting climatological anomaly is a warming of about 0.1°C in the subsurface layer and cooling below the thermocline (less than 0.1°C).

scholarly journals The South Pacific Convergence Zone as Depicted in Reanalysis and Satellite Products

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Harvey Thomas Luke
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Extended Analysis

<p>The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Remote Sensing of <i>Trichodesmium</i> spp. mats in the Western Tropical South Pacific

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rousset ◽  
Florian De Boissieu ◽  
Christophe E. Menkes ◽  
Jérôme Lefèvre ◽  
Robert Frouin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Correction ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
False Positive Detection ◽  
Modis Imagery ◽  
In Situ Observations

Abstract. Trichodesmium is the main nitrogen-fixing species in the South Pacific region, a hotspot for diazotrophy. Due to the paucity of in situ observations, methods for detecting Trichodesmium presence on a large scale have been investigated to assess the regional-to-global impact of these species on primary production and carbon cycling. A number of satellite-derived algorithms have been developed to identify Trichodesmium surface blooms, but determining with confidence their accuracy has been difficult, chiefly because of the scarcity of sea-truth information at time of satellite overpass. Here, we use a series of new cruises as well as airborne observational surveys in the South Pacific to quantify statistically the ability of these algorithms to discern correctly Trichodesmium surface blooms in the satellite imagery. The evaluation, performed on MODIS data at 250 m and 1 km resolution acquired over the South West Pacific, shows limitations due to spatial resolution, clouds, and atmospheric correction. A new satellite-based algorithm is designed to alleviate some of these limitations, by exploiting optimally spectral features in the atmospherically corrected reflectance at 531, 645, 678, 748, and 869 nm. This algorithm outperforms former ones near clouds, limiting false positive detection, and allowing regional scale automation. Compared with observations, 80 % of the detected mats are within a 2 km range, demonstrating the good statistical skill of the new algorithm. Application to MODIS imagery acquired during the February–March 2015 OUTPACE campaign reveals the presence of surface blooms Northwest and East of New Caledonia and near 20° S–172° W in qualitative agreement with measured nitrogen fixation rates. The new algorithm, however, fails to detect sub-surface booms evidenced in trichome counts. Improving Trichodesmium detection requires measuring ocean color at higher spectral and spatial (

scholarly journals Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Beischer ◽  
Paul Gregory ◽  
Kavina Dayal ◽  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Andrew N. Charles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
South Pacific Convergence Zone ◽  
The South ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts

AbstractRegional seasonal forecasting requires accurate simulation of the variability of local climate drivers. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a large region of low-level convergence, clouds and precipitation in the South Pacific, whose effects extend as far as northeast Australia (NEA). The location of the SPCZ is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which causes rainfall variability in the region. Correctly simulating the ENSO-SPCZ teleconnection and its interplay with local conditions is essential for improving seasonal rainfall forecasts. Here we analyse the ability of the ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecast system to predict the SPCZ’s relationship with ENSO including its latitudinal shifts, zonal slope and rainfall magnitude between 1990 and 2012 for the December–January–February (DJF) season. We found improvements in ACCESS-S1’s SPCZ prediction capability compared to its predecessor (POAMA), although prediction of the slope is still limited. The inability of ACCESS-S1 to replicate seasons with a strong anti-zonal SPCZ slope is attributed to its atmospheric model. This has implications for accurate seasonal rainfall forecasts for NEA and South Pacific Islands. Future challenges in seasonal prediction facing regional communities and developers of coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast models are discussed.

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