scholarly journals Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4368-4384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Pier Giuseppe Fogli ◽  
...  

Abstract In this paper the interplay between tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Northern Hemispheric ocean heat transport (OHT) is investigated. In particular, results from a numerical simulation of the twentieth-century and twenty-first-century climates, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth-century run (20C3M) and A1B scenario protocols, respectively, have been analyzed. The numerical simulations have been performed using a state-of-the-art global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with relatively high-resolution (T159) in the atmosphere. The CGCM skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the twentieth century with available observations. The model simulates tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. Specifically, the simulated TCs exhibit realistic structure, geographical distribution, and interannual variability, indicating that the model is able to capture the basic mechanisms linking the TC activity with the large-scale circulation. The cooling of the surface ocean observed in correspondence of the TCs is well simulated by the model. TC activity is shown to significantly increase the poleward OHT out of the tropics and decrease the poleward OHT from the deep tropics on short time scales. This effect, investigated by looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated with the TC-induced momentum flux at the ocean surface, where the winds associated with the TCs significantly weaken (strengthen) the trade winds in the 5°–18°N (18°–30°N) latitude belt. However, the induced perturbation does not impact the yearly averaged OHT. The frequency and intensity of the TCs appear to be substantially stationary through the entire 1950–2069 simulated period, as does the effect of the TCs on the OHT.

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 5204-5228 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Gualdi ◽  
E. Scoccimarro ◽  
A. Navarra

Abstract This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the twentieth century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation, and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC occurrence with large-scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with reduced convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Finally, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both hemispheres, notwithstanding the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion poleward of warm SSTs.


2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (4) ◽  
pp. 1305-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Chih Yang ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Ming Cai ◽  
Michele M. Rienecker

Abstract The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled general circulation model (CGCM) in its operational configuration in which ocean data assimilation is used to initialize the coupled forecasts. Bred vectors (BVs), designed to capture the dominant growing errors in the atmosphere–ocean coupled system, are applied as initial ensemble perturbations. The potential improvement for ensemble prediction is investigated by comparing BVs with the oceanic growing errors, estimated by the one-month forecast error from the nonperturbed forecast. Results show that one-month forecast errors and BVs from the NASA CGCM share very similar features: BVs are clearly related to forecast errors in both SST and equatorial subsurface temperature—in particular, when the BV growth rate is large. Both the forecast errors and the BVs in the subsurface are dominated by large-scale structures near the thermocline. Results suggest that the forecast errors are dominated by dynamically evolving structures related to the variations of the background anomalous state, and that their shapes can be captured by BVs, especially during the strong 1997/98 El Niño. Hindcast experiments starting from January 1997 with one pair of BVs achieve a significant improvement relative to the control (unperturbed) hindcast by capturing many important features of this event, including the westerly wind burst in early 1997.


2012 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takashi T. SAKAMOTO ◽  
Yoshiki KOMURO ◽  
Teruyuki NISHIMURA ◽  
Masayoshi ISHII ◽  
Hiroaki TATEBE ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (20) ◽  
pp. 7966-7980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Bell ◽  
Jane Strachan ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Malcolm Roberts

Abstract The authors present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change owing to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean). Tropical cyclones are identified using a feature-tracking algorithm applied to model output. Tropical cyclones from idealized 30-yr 2×CO2 (2CO2) and 4×CO2 (4CO2) simulations are compared to those identified in a 150-yr present-day simulation that is separated into a five-member ensemble of 30-yr integrations. Tropical cyclones are shown to decrease in frequency globally by 9% in the 2CO2 and 26% in the 4CO2. Tropical cyclones only become more intense in the 4CO2; however, uncoupled time slice experiments reveal an increase in intensity in the 2CO2. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity in the main development regions, is used to determine the response of tropical cyclone activity to increased atmospheric CO2. A weaker Walker circulation and a reduction in zonally averaged regions of updrafts lead to a shift in the location of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. A decrease in mean ascent at 500 hPa contributes to the reduction of tropical cyclones in the 2CO2 in most basins. The larger reduction of tropical cyclones in the 4CO2 arises from further reduction of the mean ascent at 500 hPa and a large enhancement of vertical wind shear, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, North Atlantic, and northeast Pacific.


2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2537-2552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Williamson ◽  
Mat Collins ◽  
Sybren S. Drijfhout ◽  
Ron Kahana ◽  
Jennifer V. Mecking ◽  
...  

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