scholarly journals Prediction of Rice Production in the Philippines Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 552-569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naohisa Koide ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
Amor V. M. Ines ◽  
Jian-Hua Qian ◽  
David G. DeWitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Production Data ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

AbstractPredictive skills of retrospective seasonal climate forecasts (hindcasts) tailored to Philippine rice production data at national, regional, and provincial levels are investigated using precipitation hindcasts from one uncoupled general circulation model (GCM) and two coupled GCMs, as well as using antecedent observations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, warm water volumes (WWV), and zonal winds (ZW). Contrasting cross-validated predictive skills are found between the “dry” January–June and “rainy” July–December crop-production seasons. For the dry season, both irrigated and rain-fed rice production are shown to depend strongly on rainfall in the previous October–December. Furthermore, rice-crop hindcasts based on the two coupled GCMs, or on the observed WWV and ZW, are each able to account for more than half of the total variance of the dry-season national detrended rice production with about a 6-month lead time prior to the beginning of the harvest season. At regional and provincial levels, predictive skills are generally low. The relationships are found to be more complex for rainy-season rice production. Area harvested correlates positively with rainfall during the preceding dry season, whereas the yield has positive and negative correlations with rainfall in June–September and in October–December of the harvested year, respectively. Tropical cyclone activity is also shown to be a contributing factor in the latter 3-month season. Hindcasts based on the WWV and ZW are able to account for almost half of the variance of the detrended rice production data in Luzon with a few months’ lead time prior to the beginning of the rainy season.

scholarly journals Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 2129-2140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Klemm ◽  
Renee A. McPherson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
South Central ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

AbstractAgricultural decision-making that adapts to climate variability is essential to global food security. Crop production can be severely impacted by drought, flood, and heat, as seen in recent years in parts of the United States. Seasonal climate forecasts can help producers reduce crop losses, but many nationwide, publicly available seasonal forecasts currently lack relevance for agricultural producers, in part because they do not reflect their decision needs. This study examines the seasonal forecast needs of winter wheat producers in the southern Great Plains to understand what climate information is most useful and what lead times are most relevant for decision-making. An online survey of 119 agricultural advisers, cooperative extension agents in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Colorado, was conducted and gave insights into producers’ preferences for forecast elements, what weather and climate extremes have the most impact on decision-making, and the decision timing of major farm practices. The survey participants indicated that winter wheat growers were interested not only in directly modeled variables, such as total monthly rainfall, but also in derived elements, such as consecutive number of dry days. Moreover, these agricultural advisers perceived that winter wheat producers needed seasonal climate forecasts to have a lead time of 0–2.5 months—the planning lead time for major farm practices, like planting or harvesting. A forecast calendar and monthly rankings for forecast elements were created that can guide forecasters and advisers as they develop decision tools for winter wheat producers and that can serve as a template for other time-sensitive decision tools developed for stakeholder communities.

scholarly journals Impact of ECCO Ocean-State Estimates on the Initialization of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1929-1947 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Cazes-Boezio ◽  
Dimitris Menemenlis ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Massachusetts Institute Of Technology ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Abstract The impact of ocean-state estimates generated by the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) on the initialization of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for seasonal climate forecasts is examined. The CGCM consists of the University of California, Los Angeles, Atmospheric GCM (UCLA AGCM) and an ECCO ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology GCM (MITgcm). The forecasts correspond to ensemble seasonal hindcasts for the period 1993–2001. For the forecasts, the ocean component of the CGCM is initialized in either early March or in early June using ocean states provided either by an unconstrained forward ocean integration of the MITgcm (the “baseline” hindcasts) or by data-constrained ECCO results (the “ECCO” hindcasts). Forecast skill for both the baseline and the ECCO hindcasts is significantly higher than persistence and compares well with the skill of other state-of-the art CGCM forecast systems. For March initial conditions, the standard errors of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in ECCO hindcasts (relative to observed anomalies) are up to 1°C smaller than in the baseline hindcasts over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (150°–120°W). For June initial conditions, the errors of ECCO hindcasts are up to 0.5°C smaller than in the baseline hindcasts. The smaller standard error of the ECCO hindcasts is, in part, due to a more realistic equatorial thermocline structure of the ECCO initial conditions. This study confirms the value of physically consistent ocean-state estimation for the initialization of seasonal climate forecasts.

scholarly journals Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 2057-2072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Hannah L. Cloke ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
Fredrik Wetterhall ◽  
Christel Prudhomme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Abstract. This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based seasonal streamflow forecasting.

Constraints and Suggestions in Adopting Seasonal Climate Forecasts by Farmers in South India

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Ravi Shankar ◽  
K. Nagasree ◽  
B. Venkateswarlu ◽  
Pochaiah Maraty
Keyword(s):  
South India ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers

2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 1127-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rod McCrea ◽  
Len Dalgleish ◽  
Will Coventry
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on World Wheat Trade: A Stochastic, Dynamic Analysis

2004 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harvey S. J. Hill ◽  
James W. Mjelde ◽  
H. Alan Love ◽  
Debra J. Rubas ◽  
Stephen W. Fuller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document