scholarly journals What Do Rain Gauges Tell Us about the Limits of Precipitation Predictability?*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5682-5688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Gianotti ◽  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Guido D. Salvucci
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Signals ◽  
Cold Spots

Abstract A generalizable method is presented for establishing the potential predictability for seasonal precipitation occurrence using rain gauge data. This method provides an observationally based upper limit for potential predictability for 774 weather stations in the contiguous United States. It is found that the potentially predictable fraction varies seasonally and spatially, and that on average 30% of year-to-year seasonal variability is potentially explained by predictable climate processes. Potential predictability is generally highest in winter, appears to be enhanced by orography and land surface coupling, and is lowest (stochastic variance is highest) along the Pacific coast. These results depict “hot” spots of climate variability, for use in guiding regional climate forecasting and in uncovering processes driving climate. Identified “cold” spots are equally useful in guiding future studies as predictable climate signals in these areas will likely be undetectable.

Changes in TRMM Rainfall due to the Orbit Boost Estimated from Buoy Rain Gauge Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 1598-1607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy D. DeMoss ◽  
Kenneth P. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Error ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Rate Dependent ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Microwave Imager ◽  
Trmm Microwave Imager

Abstract During the first three-and-a-half years of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the TRMM satellite operated at a nominal altitude of 350 km. To reduce drag, save maneuvering fuel, and prolong the mission lifetime, the orbit was boosted to 403 km in August 2001. The change in orbit altitude produced small changes in a wide range of observing parameters, including field-of-view size and viewing angles. Due to natural variability in rainfall and sampling error, it is not possible to evaluate possible changes in rainfall estimates from the satellite data alone. Changes in TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) precipitation observations due to the orbit boost are estimated by comparing them with surface rain gauges on ocean buoys operated by the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory (PMEL). For each rain gauge, the bias between the satellite and the gauge for pre- and postboost time periods is computed. For the TMI, the satellite is biased ∼12% low relative to the gauges during the preboost period and ∼1% low during the postboost period. The mean change in bias relative to the gauges is approximately 0.4 mm day−1. The change in TMI bias is rain-rate-dependent, with larger changes in areas with higher mean precipitation rates. The PR is biased significantly low relative to the gauges during both boost periods, but the change in bias from the pre- to postboost period is not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Improving Satellite-Based Subhourly Surface Rain Estimates Using Vertical Rain Profile Information

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1015-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuyuki Utsumi ◽  
Hyungjun Kim ◽  
F. Joseph Turk ◽  
Ziad. S. Haddad
Keyword(s):  
Rain Rate ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Surface Rain Rate ◽  
Trmm Precipitation ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Rain Rates

Abstract Quantifying time-averaged rain rate, or rain accumulation, on subhourly time scales is essential for various application studies requiring rain estimates. This study proposes a novel idea to estimate subhourly time-averaged surface rain rate based on the instantaneous vertical rain profile observed from low-Earth-orbiting satellites. Instantaneous rain estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) are compared with 1-min surface rain gauges in North America and Kwajalein atoll for the warm seasons of 2005–14. Time-lagged correlation analysis between PR rain rates at various height levels and surface rain gauge data shows that the peak of the correlations tends to be delayed for PR rain at higher levels up to around 6-km altitude. PR estimates for low to middle height levels have better correlations with time-delayed surface gauge data than the PR’s estimated surface rain rate product. This implies that rain estimates for lower to middle heights may have skill to estimate the eventual surface rain rate that occurs 1–30 min later. Therefore, in this study, the vertical profiles of TRMM PR instantaneous rain estimates are averaged between the surface and various heights above the surface to represent time-averaged surface rain rate. It was shown that vertically averaged PR estimates up to middle heights (~4.5 km) exhibit better skill, compared to the PR estimated instantaneous surface rain product, to represent subhourly (~30 min) time-averaged surface rain rate. These findings highlight the merit of additional consideration of vertical rain profiles, not only instantaneous surface rain rate, to improve subhourly surface estimates of satellite-based rain products.

scholarly journals Statistical Characteristic of Heavy Rainfall Associated with Typhoons near Taiwan Based on High-Density Automatic Rain Gauge Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (8) ◽  
pp. 1363-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Chieh Wu ◽  
Tzu-Hsiung Yen ◽  
Yi-Hsuan Huang ◽  
Cheng-Ku Yu ◽  
Shin-Gan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Central Weather Bureau

Abstract This study utilizes data compiled over 21 years (1993–2013) from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan to investigate the statistical characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall for 53 typhoons that have impacted Taiwan. In this work the data are grouped into two datasets: one includes 21 selected conventional weather stations (referred to as Con-ST), and the other contains all the available rain gauges (250–500 gauges, mostly automatic ones; referred to as All-ST). The primary aim of this study is to understand the potential impacts of the different gauge distributions between All-ST and Con-ST on the statistical characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall. The analyses indicate that although the average rainfall amount calculated with Con-ST is statistically similar to that with All-ST, the former cannot identify the precipitation extremes and rainfall distribution appropriately, especially in mountainous areas. Because very few conventional stations are located over the mountainous regions, the cumulative frequency obtained solely from Con-ST is not representative. As compared to the results from All-ST, the extreme rainfall assessed from Con-ST is, on average, underestimated by 23%–44% for typhoons approaching different portions of Taiwan. The uneven distribution of Con-ST, with only three stations located in the mountains higher than 1000 m, is likely to cause significant biases in the interpretation of rainfall patterns. This study illustrates the importance of the increase in the number of available stations in assessing the long-term rainfall characteristic of typhoon-associated heavy rainfall in Taiwan.

scholarly journals An objective cross-validation framework for mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Emmanuel Paquet ◽  
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar ◽  
David Penot
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Validation Framework

Abstract. We propose an objective framework for estimating rainfall cumulative distribution function within a region when data are only available at rain gauges. Our methodology is based on the evaluation of several goodness-of-fit scores in a cross-validation framework, allowing to assess goodness-of-fit of the full distribution but with a particular focus on its tail. Cross-validation is applied both to select the most appropriate statistical distribution at station locations and to validate the mapping of these distributions. Our methodology is applied to daily rainfall in the Ardèche catchment in South of France, a 2260 km2 catchment with strong disparities in rainfall distribution. Results show preference for a mixture of Gamma distribution over seasons and weather patterns, with parameters interpolated with thin plate spline across this region. However the framework presented in this paper is general and could be likewise applied in any region, with possibly different conclusion depending on the subsequent rainfall processes.

scholarly journals Geostatistical Merging of a Single-Polarized X-Band Weather Radar and a Sparse Rain Gauge Network over an Urban Catchment

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Seck ◽  
Joël Van Baelen
Keyword(s):  
Mean Field ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
X Band ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
Field Bias ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Inverse Distance

Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) of rainfall is crucial to the accuracy of hydrological models, especially over urban catchments. Small-to-medium size towns are often equipped with sparse rain gauge networks that struggle to capture the variability in rainfall over high spatiotemporal resolutions. X-band Local Area Weather Radars (LAWRs) provide a cost-effective solution to meet this challenge. The Clermont Auvergne metropolis monitors precipitation through a network of 13 rain gauges with a temporal resolution of 5 min. 5 additional rain gauges with a 6-minute temporal resolution are available in the region, and are operated by the national weather service Météo-France. The LaMP (Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique) laboratory’s X-band single-polarized weather radar monitors precipitation as well in the region. In this study, three geostatistical interpolation techniques—Ordinary kriging (OK), which was applied to rain gauge data with a variogram inferred from radar data, conditional merging (CM), and kriging with an external drift (KED)—are evaluated and compared through cross-validation. The performance of the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique (IDW), which was applied to rain gauge data only, was investigated as well, in order to evaluate the effect of incorporating radar data on the QPE’s quality. The dataset is comprised of rainfall events that occurred during the seasons of summer 2013 and winter 2015, and is exploited at three temporal resolutions: 5, 30, and 60 min. The investigation of the interpolation techniques performances is carried out for both seasons and for the three temporal resolutions using raw radar data, radar data corrected from attenuation, and the mean field bias, successively. The superiority of the geostatistical techniques compared to the inverse distance weighting method was verified with an average relative improvement of 54% and 31% in terms of bias reduction for kriging with an external drift and conditional merging, respectively (cross-validation). KED and OK performed similarly well, while CM lagged behind in terms of point measurement QPE accuracy, but was the best method in terms of preserving the observations’ variance. The correction schemes had mixed effects on the multivariate geostatistical methods. Indeed, while the attenuation correction improved KED across the board, the mean field bias correction effects were marginal. Both radar data correction schemes resulted in a decrease of the ability of CM to preserve the observations variance, while slightly improving its point measurement QPE accuracy.

scholarly journals WHU-SGCC: A novel approach for blending daily satellite (CHIRP) and precipitation observations over Jinsha River Basin

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaoyun Shen ◽  
Nengcheng Chen ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Zeqiang Chen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Hydrological Applications

Abstract. Accurate and consistent satellite-based precipitation estimates blended with rain gauge data are important for regional precipitation monitoring and hydrological applications, especially in regions with limited rain gauges. However, existing fusion precipitation estimates often have large uncertainties over mountainous areas with complex topography and sparse rain gauges, and the existing data blending algorithms are very bad at removing the day-by-day random errors. Therefore, the development of effective methods for high-accuracy precipitation estimates over complex terrain and on a daily scale is of vital importance for mountainous hydrological applications. This study aims to offer a novel approach for blending daily precipitation gauge data, gridded precipitation data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP, daily, 0.05°) satellite-derived precipitation estimates over the Jinsha River Basin for the period of June–July–August in 2016. This method is named the Wuhan University Satellite and Gauge precipitation Collaborated Correction (WHU-SGCC). The results show that the WHU-SGCC method is effective in precipitation bias adjustments from point to surface, which is evaluated by categorical indices. Moreover, the accuracy of the spatial distribution of the precipitation estimates derived from the WHU-SGCC method is related to the complexity of the topography. The validation also verifies that the proposed approach is effective in the detection of precipitation events that are less than 20 mm. This study indicates that the WHU-SGCC approach is a promising tool to monitor monsoon precipitation over Jinsha River Basin, the complicated mountainous terrain with sparse rain gauge data, considering the spatial correlation and the historical precipitation characteristics. The daily precipitation estimations at 0.05° resolution over Jinsha River Basin in summer 2016, derived from WHU-SGCC are available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.896615).

Rainfall monitoring in Sri Lanka employing commercial microwave links

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aart Overeem ◽  
Hidde Leijnse ◽  
Thomas van Leth ◽  
Linda Bogerd ◽  
Jan Priebe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Cellular Communication ◽  
Dual Frequency ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Weather Radars

<p>Microwave backhaul links from cellular communication networks provide a valuable “opportunistic” source of high-resolution space–time rainfall information, complementing traditional in situ measurement devices (rain gauges, disdrometers) and remote sensors (weather radars, satellites). Over the past decade, a growing community of researchers has, in close collaboration with cellular communication companies, developed retrieval algorithms to convert the raw microwave link signals, stored operationally by their network management systems, to hydrometeorologically useful rainfall estimates. Operational meteorological and hydrological services as well as private consulting firms are showing an increased interest in using this complementary source of rainfall information to improve the products and services they provide to end users from different sectors, from water management and weather prediction to agriculture and traffic control. The greatest potential of these opportunistic environmental sensors lies in those geographical areas over the land surface of the Earth with few rain gauges and no weather radars: often mountainous and urban areas, but especially low- to middle-income regions, which are generally in (sub)tropical climates. </p><p>Here, the open-source R package RAINLINK is employed to retrieve CML rainfall maps covering the majority of Sri Lanka, a middle-income country having a tropical climate. This is performed for a 3.5-month period based on CML data from on average 1140 link paths. CML rainfall maps are compared locally to hourly and daily rain gauge data, as well as to rainfall maps from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar on board the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory satellite. The results confirm the potential of CMLs for real-time tropical rainfall monitoring. This holds a promise for, e.g., ground validation of or merging with satellite precipitation products.</p>

scholarly journals Rainfall Regime of a Mountainous Mediterranean Region: Statistical Analysis at Short Time Steps

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Molinié ◽  
Davide Ceresetti ◽  
Sandrine Anquetin ◽  
Jean Dominique Creutin ◽  
Brice Boudevillain
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Large River ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
The Difference

AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the rainfall regime of a Mediterranean mountainous region of southeastern France. The rainfall regime is studied on temporal scales from hourly to yearly using daily and hourly rain gauge data of 43 and 16 years, respectively. The domain is 200 × 200 km2 with spatial resolution of hourly and daily rain gauges of about 8 and 5 km, respectively. On average, yearly rainfall increases from about 0.5 m yr−1 in the large river plain close to the Mediterranean Sea to up to 2 m yr−1 over the surrounding mountain ridges. The seasonal distribution is also uneven: one-third of the cumulative rainfall occurs during the autumn season and one-fourth during the spring. At finer time scales, rainfall is studied in terms of rain–no-rain intermittency and nonzero intensity. The monthly intermittency (proportion of dry days per month) and the daily intermittency (proportion of dry hours per day) is fairly well correlated with the relief. The higher the rain gauges are, the lower the monthly and daily intermittencies are. The hourly and daily rainfall intensities are analyzed in terms of seasonal variability, diurnal cycle, and spatial pattern. The difference between regular and heavy-rainfall event is depicted by using both central parameters and maximum values of intensity distributions. The relationship between rain gauge altitudes and rainfall intensity is grossly inverted relative to intermittency and is also far more complex. The spatial and temporal rainfall patterns depicted from rain gauge data are discussed in the light of known meteorological processes affecting the study region.

Experimental 4D-Var Assimilation of SYNOP Rain Gauge Data at ECMWF

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
pp. 1527-1544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Surface Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Key Aspects

Abstract Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) experiments with 6-hourly rain gauge accumulations observed at synoptic stations (SYNOP) around the globe have been run over several months, both at high resolution in an ECMWF operations-like framework and at lower resolution with the reference observational coverage reduced to surface pressure data only, as would be expected in early twentieth-century periods. The key aspects of the technical implementation of rain gauge data assimilation in 4D-Var are described, which include the specification of observation errors, bias correction procedures, screening, and quality control. Results from experiments indicate that the positive impact of rain gauges on forecast scores remains limited in the operations-like context because of their competition with all other observations already available. In contrast, when only synoptic station surface pressure observations are assimilated in the data-poor control experiment, the additional assimilation of rain gauge measurements substantially improves not only surface precipitation scores, but also analysis and forecast scores of temperature, geopotential, wind, and humidity at most atmospheric levels and for forecast ranges up to 10 days. The verification against Meteosat infrared imagery also shows a slight improvement in the spatial distribution of clouds. This suggests that assimilating rain gauge data available during data-sparse periods of the past might help to improve the quality of future reanalyses and subsequent forecasts.

scholarly journals WHU-SGCC: a novel approach for blending daily satellite (CHIRP) and precipitation observations over the Jinsha River basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1711-1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaoyun Shen ◽  
Nengcheng Chen ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Zeqiang Chen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Rain Gauge Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Hydrological Applications

Abstract. Accurate and consistent satellite-based precipitation estimates blended with rain gauge data are important for regional precipitation monitoring and hydrological applications, especially in regions with limited rain gauges. However, the existing fusion precipitation estimates often have large uncertainties over mountainous areas with complex topography and sparse rain gauges, and most of the existing data blending algorithms are not good at removing the day-by-day errors. Therefore, the development of effective methods for high-accuracy precipitation estimates over complex terrain and at a daily scale is of vital importance for mountainous hydrological applications. This study aims to offer a novel approach for blending daily precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP; daily, 0.05∘) satellite-derived precipitation developed by UC Santa Barbara over the Jinsha River basin from 1994 to 2014. This method is called the Wuhan University Satellite and Gauge precipitation Collaborated Correction (WHU-SGCC). The results show that the WHU-SGCC method is effective for liquid precipitation bias adjustments from points to surfaces as evaluated by multiple error statistics and from different perspectives. Compared with CHIRP and CHIRP with station data (CHIRPS), the precipitation adjusted by the WHU-SGCC method has greater accuracy, with overall average improvements of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) by 0.0082–0.2232 and 0.0612–0.3243, respectively, and decreases in the root mean square error (RMSE) by 0.0922–0.65 and 0.2249–2.9525 mm, respectively. In addition, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of the WHU-SGCC provides more substantial improvements than CHIRP and CHIRPS, which reached 0.2836, 0.2944, and 0.1853 in the spring, autumn, and winter. Daily accuracy evaluations indicate that the WHU-SGCC method has the best ability to reduce precipitation bias, with average reductions of 21.68 % and 31.44 % compared to CHIRP and CHIRPS, respectively. Moreover, the accuracy of the spatial distribution of the precipitation estimates derived from the WHU-SGCC method is related to the complexity of the topography. The validation also verifies that the proposed approach is effective at detecting major precipitation events within the Jinsha River basin. In spite of the correction, the uncertainties in the seasonal precipitation forecasts in the summer and winter are still large, which might be due to the homogenization attenuating the extreme rain event estimates. However, the WHU-SGCC approach may serve as a promising tool to monitor daily precipitation over the Jinsha River basin, which contains complicated mountainous terrain with sparse rain gauge data, based on the spatial correlation and the historical precipitation characteristics. The daily precipitation estimations at the 0.05∘ resolution over the Jinsha River basin during all four seasons from 1990 to 2014, derived from WHU-SGCC, are available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.905376, Shen et al., 2019).

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