scholarly journals Distinct Influences of the ENSO-Like and PMM-Like SST Anomalies on the Mean TC Genesis Location in the Western North Pacific: The 2015 Summer as an Extreme Example

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 3049-3059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Cherng Hong ◽  
Ming-Ying Lee ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Wan-Ling Tseng
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
East West

Abstract This study reports the different effects of tropical and subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the mean tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location in the western North Pacific (WNP), a TC–SSTA relationship that has been largely ignored. In the Pacific, the interannual variability of the tropical SSTA in the boreal summer is characterized by an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, whereas the subtropical SSTA exhibits a Pacific meridional mode (PMM)-like structure. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the ENSO-like and PMM-like SSTAs dominate the south–north and east–west shift of mean TC genesis location, respectively. The 2015/16 El Niño was a strong event comparable with the 1997/98 event in terms of Niño-3.4 SSTA. However, the mean TC genesis location in the WNP during the summer of 2015 exhibited an unprecedented eastward shift by approximately 10 longitudinal degrees relative to that in 1997. Whereas the ENSO-like SSTAs in 1997 and 2015 were approximately equal, the amplitude of the PMM-like SSTA in 2015 was approximately twice as large as that in 1997. Numerical experiments forced by the ENSO-like and PMM-like SSTAs in June–August 2015 reveal that the positive PMM-like SSTA forces an east–west overturning circulation anomaly in the subtropical North Pacific with anomalously ascending (descending) motion in the subtropical central (western) Pacific. The mean TC genesis location in the WNP therefore shifts eastward when warmer SST occurs in the subtropical eastern Pacific. This finding supports the hypothesis that the extremely positive PMM-like SSTA in the summer of 2015 caused the unprecedented eastward shift of the TC genesis location in the WNP.

scholarly journals Modulation of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Western North Pacific by ENSO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (20) ◽  
pp. 7189-7201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Liu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Li Deng ◽  
Yuanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The authors investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the boreal summer (May–October) over the western North Pacific (WNP). It is found that during El Niño summers, the ISO is dominated by a higher-frequency oscillation with a period of around 20–40 days, whereas during La Niña summers the ISO is dominated by a lower-frequency period of around 40–70 days. The former is characterized by northwestward-propagating convection anomalies in the WNP, and the latter is characterized by northward- and eastward-propagating convective signals over the tropical Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent. The possible mechanisms through which El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced background mean state changes influence the ISO behavior are examined through idealized numerical experiments. It is found that enhanced (weakened) mean moisture and easterly (westerly) vertical wind shear in the WNP during El Niño (La Niña) are the main causes of the strengthened (weakened) 20–40-day northwestward-propagating ISO mode, whereas the 40–70-day ISO initiated from the Indian Ocean can only affect the WNP during La Niña years because the dry (moist) background moisture near the Maritime Continent during El Niño (La Niña) suppresses (enhances) the ISO over the Maritime Continent, and the ISO propagates less over the Maritime Continent during El Niño years than in La Niña years.

scholarly journals Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 2237-2248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong Wu ◽  
Xiaochun Wang ◽  
Li Tao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Peak Phase

AbstractIn this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

scholarly journals Seasonality and El Niño Diversity in the Relationship between ENSO and Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8021-8045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumi Choi ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Seasonal Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Both the impacts of two types of El Niño on the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the seasonality in the relationship between genesis potential index (GPI) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated. The ENSO-induced GPI change over the northwestern (southeastern) part of the WNP is mostly attributed to the relative humidity (absolute vorticity) term, revealing a distinct meridional and zonal asymmetry in summer and fall, respectively. The seasonal change in ENSO (background states) from summer to fall is responsible for the seasonal change in GPI anomalies south of 20°N (over the northeastern part of the WNP). The downdraft induced by the strong upper-level convergence in the eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño and both the northwestward-shifted relative vorticity and northward-extended convection over the southeastern part of the WNP in the central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño lead to distinct TC impacts over East Asia (EA). The southward movement of genesis location of TCs and increased westward-moving TCs account for the enhanced strong typhoon activity for the EP-type El Niño in summer. In fall the downdraft and anomalous anticyclonic steering flows over the western part of the WNP remarkably decrease TC impacts over EA. The enhanced moist static energy and midlevel upward motion over the eastern part of the WNP under the northern off-equatorial sea surface temperature warming as well as longer passage of TCs toward EA are responsible for the enhanced typhoon activity for the CP-type El Niño. It is thus important to consider the seasonality and El Niño pattern diversity to explore the El Niño–induced TC impacts over EA.

The North Pacific Pacemaker Effect on Historical ENSO and Its Mechanisms

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7643-7661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dillon J. Amaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Wenyu Zhou ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Studies have indicated that North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but there has been little effort to put extratropical–tropical interactions into the context of historical events. To quantify the role of the North Pacific in pacing the timing and magnitude of observed ENSO, we use a fully coupled climate model to produce an ensemble of North Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (nPOGA) SST pacemaker simulations. In nPOGA, SST anomalies are restored back to observations in the North Pacific (>15°N) but are free to evolve throughout the rest of the globe. We find that the North Pacific SST has significantly influenced observed ENSO variability, accounting for approximately 15% of the total variance in boreal fall and winter. The connection between the North and tropical Pacific arises from two physical pathways: 1) a wind–evaporation–SST (WES) propagating mechanism, and 2) a Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall, which we refer to as the summer deep convection (SDC) response. The SDC response accounts for 25% of the observed zonal wind variability around the equatorial date line. On an event-by-event basis, nPOGA most closely reproduces the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 El Niños. In particular, we show that the 2015 Pacific meridional mode event increased wind forcing along the equator by 20%, potentially contributing to the extreme nature of the 2015/16 El Niño. Our results illustrate the significant role of extratropical noise in pacing the initiation and magnitude of ENSO events and may improve the predictability of ENSO on seasonal time scales.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Summer Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific Depicted by CFSR and Associated Large-Scale Processes and ISO Modulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1771-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jau-Ming Chen ◽  
Pei-Hua Tan ◽  
Liang Wu ◽  
Hui-Shan Chen ◽  
Jin-Shuen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific

This study examines the interannual variability of summer tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall (TCR) in the western North Pacific (WNP) depicted by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). This interannual variability exhibits a maximum region near Taiwan (19°–28°N, 120°–128°E). Significantly increased TCR in this region is modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related large-scale processes. They feature elongated sea surface temperature warming in the tropical eastern Pacific and a southeastward-intensified monsoon trough. Increased TC movements are facilitated by interannual southerly/southeasterly flows in the northeastern periphery of the intensified monsoon trough to move from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan, resulting in increased TCR. The coherent dynamic relations between interannual variability of summer TCR and large-scale environmental processes justify CFSR as being able to reasonably depict interannual characteristics of summer TCR in the WNP. For intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) modulations, TCs tend to cluster around the center of a 10–24-day cyclonic anomaly and follow its northwestward propagation from the tropical WNP toward the region near Taiwan. The above TC movements are subject to favorable background conditions provided by a northwest–southeasterly extending 30–60-day cyclonic anomaly. Summer TCR tends to increase (decrease) during El Niño (La Niña) years and strong (weak) ISO years. By comparing composite TCR anomalies and correlations with TCR variability, it is found that ENSO is more influential than ISO in modulating the interannual variability of summer TCR in the WNP.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6401-6423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongqing Han ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Weijing Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Cp El Niño

Abstract An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño—namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño—and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.

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