scholarly journals Do CMIP5 Models Show El Niño Diversity?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1619-1641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Feng ◽  
Tao Lian ◽  
Jun Ying ◽  
Junde Li ◽  
Gen Li
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sst Gradient

AbstractWhether the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models have different El Niño types and how the degree of modeled El Niño diversity would be impacted by the future global warming are still heavily debated. In this study, cluster analysis is used to investigate El Niño diversity in 30 CMIP5 models. As the method does not rely on any prior knowledge of the patterns of El Niño seen in observations, it provides a practical way to identify the degree of El Niño diversity in models. Under the historical scenario, most models show a poor degree of El Niño diversity in their own model world, primarily due to the lopsided numbers of events belonging to the two modeled El Niño types and the weak compactness of events in each cluster. Four models are found showing significant El Niño diversity, yet none of them captures the longitudinal distributions of the warming centers of the two El Niño types seen in the observations. Heat budget analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly suggests that the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is highly related to the climatological zonal SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific in models. As the gradient is weakened in most models under the future high-emission scenario, the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is further reduced in the future. The results indicate that a better simulation of the SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific might allow a more reliable simulation/projection of El Niño diversity in most CMIP5 models.

scholarly journals The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 2811-2827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyong Luo ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Fukai Liu ◽  
Oluwayemi Garuba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Budget Analysis

The role of ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the date line owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific—a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño–like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slow pattern likely results from 1) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STCs), and 2) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña–like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño–like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.

scholarly journals Distinguishing Characteristics of Spring and Summer Onset El Niño Events

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 4579-4597
Author(s):  
Hua Xu ◽  
Jianjun Xu ◽  
Chunlei Liu ◽  
Niansen Ou
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Bjerknes Feedback ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractEl Niño events can be classified into two categories according to the onset time: the spring (SP) El Niño with onset time from April to June and the summer (SU) El Niño with onset time from July to October. The SP El Niño is a basin-scale phenomenon and is closer to the conventional ENSO. It goes through the earlier and stronger heat build-up process, and the earlier occurrence of westerlies in the equatorial Pacific, which can partly explain its earlier onset time. For SU El Niño, in contrast, the anomalous signals, such as SSTAs, zonal wind anomalies, and subsurface variations, are much weaker, which can be attributed to the weaker accumulation of warm water and shorter duration of positive Bjerknes feedback. During its peak phase, anomalous southeasterlies over the eastern Pacific enhance the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback and impede the development of positive SSTAs there, and then lead to a west shift of SSTA center. Recharge/discharge processes exist in both types of events but are weaker in the SU type, which may be caused by the lack of meridional Sverdrup transports as a result of weak zonal wind anomalies. A heat budget analysis demonstrates that the relative importance of thermocline (TH) and zonal advective (ZA) feedbacks in SP and SU El Niño is different. In SP El Niño, the TH feedback is dominant compared to ZA feedback in both the GODAS and SODA datasets. In SU El Niño, however, these two terms are equally important in GODAS, but not in the SODA dataset.

scholarly journals Geographical distribution of new production in the western/central equatorial Pacific during El Niño and non-El Niño conditions

2001 ◽  
Vol 106 (C3) ◽  
pp. 4501-4515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Turk ◽  
Marlon R. Lewis ◽  
Glen W. Harrison ◽  
Takeshi Kawano ◽  
Ichio Asanuma
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
New Production ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific

El Niño-associated catastrophic coral mortality at Jarvis Island, central Equatorial Pacific

Coral Reefs ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 731-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo Vargas-Ángel ◽  
Brittany Huntington ◽  
Russell E. Brainard ◽  
Roberto Venegas ◽  
Thomas Oliver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Coral Mortality ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific

scholarly journals Effects of Salinity Variability on Recent El Niño Events

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Zhi ◽  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Pengfei Lin ◽  
Shiwei Shi
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Salinity Variability ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific

Ocean salinity variability provides a new way to study the evolution of the the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Comparisons between the salinity variation and related processes responsible for sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) were extensively examined for the two strong El Niño (EN) events in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, and a special EN event in 2014/2015. The results show that the development of EN is significantly correlated with a sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) in the tropical western-central Pacific. In the spring of 1997 and 2015 with strong EN events, the western-central equatorial Pacific exhibited significant negative SSSA that propagated eastward to the west of the dateline. The negative SSSA induced increased barrier layer thickness (BLT) which enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. In contrast, although a negative SSSA occurred during April of the 2014/2015 weak EN event in the western-central equatorial Pacific, this SSSA was mainly confined to between 160° E and 180° E without significant eastward movement, resulting in a weakened BLT thickening process and a weak modulation effect on SST. We also confirm that the surface forcing associated with fresh water flux (FWF: evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P)) plays a prominent role in the surface salinity tendency in the tropical Pacific during EN events. Moreover, the negative FWF anomaly leads a strong negative SSSA by two months. Compared with the two strong ENs, the early negative FWF anomaly in the weak 2014/2015 EN did not present distinct development and eastward propagation and weakened rapidly in the summer of 2015. We demonstrate that change in salinity can modulate the ENSO, and the variation of SSSA and associated physical processes in the tropical western-central Pacific and could be used as an indicator for predicting the development of ENSO.

MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific in CMIP5 Models: Roles of Background States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Occurrence Frequency ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract This study explored the impacts of background states on the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in 24 CMIP5 models using a precipitation-based MJO tracking method. The ability of the model to reproduce the MJO propagation is reflected in the occurrence frequency of individual MJO events. Moisture budget analysis suggests that the occurrence frequencies of MJO events that propagate across the Indian Ocean (IO-MJO) and western Pacific (WP-MJO) in the models are mainly related to the low-level meridional moisture advection ahead of the MJO convection center. This advection is tightly associated with the background distribution of low-level moisture. Drier biases in background low-level moisture over the entire tropical regions account for underestimated MJO occurrence frequency in the bottom-tier simulations. This study highlights the importance of reproducing the year-to-year background states for the simulations of MJO propagation in the models by further decomposing the background states into the climatology and anomaly components. The background meridional moisture gradient account for the IO-MJO occurrence frequency is closely related to its climatology component, however, the anomaly component regulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also important for the WP-MJO occurrence frequency. The year-to-year variations of background zonal and meridional gradients associated with ENSO account for the IO-MJO occurrence frequency tend to be offset with each other. As a result, the ENSO shows no significant impact on the IO-MJO occurrence frequency. However, the MJO events tend to more likely propagate across the western Pacific during El Niño years.

scholarly journals Relative Roles of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes in Causing Evolution Asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña*

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 2201-2220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingcheng Chen ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Xinyong Shen ◽  
Bo Wu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Sign Change ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Second Year ◽  
Thermodynamic Processes

Abstract Observed SST anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibits an asymmetric evolution characteristic between El Niño and La Niña. While El Niño is characterized by a rapid decay after its peak and a fast phase transition to a cold episode in the following winter, La Niña is characterized by a weaker decay after its peak and a reintensification of cold SSTA in the second year. The relative roles of dynamic (wind field) and thermodynamic (heat flux) processes in causing the asymmetric evolutions are investigated through a mixed layer heat budget analysis. The result shows both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to the evolution asymmetry. The former is related to asymmetric wind responses in the western Pacific, whereas the latter is associated with asymmetric cloud–radiation–SST and evaporation–SST feedbacks. A strong negative SSTA tendency occurs during El Niño decaying phase, compared to a much weaker positive SSTA tendency during La Niña decaying phase. Such a difference leads to an SSTA sign change for El Niño but no sign change for La Niña by the end of summer of the second year. A season-dependent coupled instability kicks in during northern fall, leading to the development of a La Niña by end of the second year for El Niño, but the reoccurrence of a La Niña episode by end of the second year for La Niña. The overall heat budget analysis during the entire ENSO evolutions indicates the thermodynamic process is as important as the dynamic process in causing the El Niño–La Niña evolution asymmetry. The fundamental difference of the current result with previous theories is further discussed.

Zonal Winds in the Central Equatorial Pacific and El Nino

Science ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 222 (4621) ◽  
pp. 327-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. LUTHER ◽  
D. E. HARRISON ◽  
R. A. KNOX
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific
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