A study of evening convective clouds over Kochi and neighbourhood

Radar echoes of 0900 and 1100 UTC over Kochi and 200 km around were studied from 1996 to 1999 along with SST of southeast Arabian Sea and Kochi. The following results are obtained : Monsoon convective cloud tops were lower than Pre-monsoon and Post-monsoon convective cloud tops. (ii) In the mean, monsoon cloud tops gradually increased from 1996 to 1998 and then decreased. (iii) Very large convective activity existed during August 1997 to June 1998 compared to other periods of this study. Seasonally the higher the SST, the higher is convective cloud top. (v) Interannually, large positive SST anomaly coincided with high convective activity and this may be related to then prevailing El Nino.

VARIABILITY OF INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON : RELATIONSHIP WITH GLOBAL SST ANOMALIES

(iloh,tlcurr("!,1111111 ll111p .o; uflhe SlIllll1lt" r mUn!\4 lOn prt>cipil:lliull anomalies a nti St"a SU l f.IC(" Tt"mpt"1 a1lln"' (SST) a nUllul!it'.'i are pTt'St'IlI("d . n lir1 ) -)l' /u (1950..1479) rime St' 1; ("S uf 11l0n...nnn ind("x b co rn' l a h~d ....; Ih Iht"SST tillll' Sl'riCS al t"nch 1° ;<2° latitLIl1co! u nl:iluJt" box uf th t" \\(1(111 (>I,:eans usi ng COADS (Comprehensive O..:eanAllno...pl1("fl." Dala S('1)dn ta ttl "3riOUS timc IJgs o f lUonth s (i.t' .. l1luI11 h,'S of year s p recedi ng 'lI1.1 conc urrcnI lu Ihe1ll011Stllll1-)l'at) , Ctl lTclal ion..mups :'I ll' pn.-pUTl,.f 111111 Illaly"I'" 1(1 i.lclltify Il' IN."Oll lle ct it ln "-' Ilf llln ll....oon pTt'I,:ipil<ttiunwilh glubal S ~Ts.It is I'olin.! th ai tlll' lag,orrelatiuns .... ilh SST (Will 1:('01(31 and t'ilstt"m t'lluHt orial Padlic (Ninu-rl'l!inniliresuggl·..liw of IWlI I>p t' S o f inlt"raetjuns .....ith Ihe munsoun. The first on e, .... h il.:h sho ws pmili\'c <:orre lnlio n of summermonsoon pf('\.-ipililtion anoll1alit"s ",i lh Ihe ct"nlral and l":Jsl ..-mequaturial P<lciftc SST nnoUlal ies aboul a yea r be forelilt" 1l10 nsollfl. sUggl°.!>1Sthat lhe monsoon which follo ws abmlt a )'t'lir la ll'r ur tX'currence ofwaml t"pisode of EI..Nin~Suut hem Oscillatiun (ENSO) is generally ....-eltc It is also suggestetJ Ihal this inleract io n might be taki ng placelhruugh Ihe in llue nce or nOr1h em hemisp here int er tempera tures. Th e seco nd I)-PC of inleraclion of equ alorialPaci fic SST ....i lh mon soon is revealed through the strung n~al ive co rrela tio ns bqinning befo re lh e summer monsoon an d continuing ....; lh g~ a l er magnitud e an d o~ r ....i der extent. suuest ing th ai a .....arm SST anomaly j ust precedineanll concurrent to monsoon ~aso n weaken s th e monsson.AiNt"li intcf<n'lions bctween Ihe Indian Ocean and monsoon are also emph a si ~d in the anal ysis. Two key~ginns are ide nt ified. Th e cen tra l Indian Ocun south o f th e equalor shoW!strong positive corre la tions during (helalt' no n hl'm ",inler a nd spring. Th e other key Tq!'ion is in the north Ind ian Geran. Th e correlations are significanllynt'ga li\'e. Some teleconnections with th e Atlantic basin are also revealed which are ralhe rdifficuh to explain but ma yfind usefu l ap plications in monitoring and long-range forecas line of the monsoon.

Distinct Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature over the Cold Tongue Region in South China Sea during Various El Niño Events

This study investigates the evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the cold tongue (CT) region in the central South China Sea (SCS) during various El Niño events. A significant and distinct double-peak warming evolution can occur during EP El Niño and CP El Niño events, with the former being more remarkable and robust than the latter. Further analyses show that the weak and insignificant CT SST anomaly in CP El Niño events is influenced by some CP El Niño events in which the warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is located west of 175° E (WCP El Niño). The response of CT SSTA mainly depends on the warm SSTA location of CP El Niño. The different corresponding mechanisms in winter, spring and summer are discussed respectively in this work. Further analysis reveals that the weak and insignificant SST anomaly over the CT region in CP El Niño events is caused by the faint SSTA response during the WCP El Niño events. The results of this study call attention to the response of the SCS climate in both atmosphere and ocean to the diversity of ENSO, especially the CP El Niño.

Present and future relations between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability over the Asian-Pacific-American region simulated by CMIP5/6

In this study, the relationship between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability (STV) over the Asian-Pacific-American region is examined in 26 CMIP5/6 model outputs. Compared to observations, most models fail to simulate the correct ENSO-STV relationship in historical simulations. To investigate the possible bias in the ENSO-STV simulations, two possible processes for the connection between ENSO and winter STV are examined in high pattern score (HPS) models and low pattern score (LPS) models, respectively. On the one hand, both HPS and LPS models can overall reproduce a reasonable relationship between STV and the mean-flow conditions supporting extratropical eddy development. On the other hand, only HPS models can well capture the relationship between ENSO and the development of extratropical eddies, while LPS models fail to simulate this feature, indicating that the bias in the simulated ENSO-STV relationship among CMIP5/6 models can be traced back to ENSO simulation. Furthermore, the bias of the ENSO simulation is characterized by an unreasonable SST pattern bias, with an excessive westward extension of warm SST anomalies over the western Pacific and weak warm SST anomalies over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, resulting in the underestimation of the zonal SST anomaly gradient among models. Therefore, the ENSO pattern bias induces an unrealistic circulation and temperature gradient over the Asian-Pacific-American region, affecting the simulations of the ENSO-STV connection. In addition, the ENSO-STV relationship over the Asian-Pacific-American region is still robust in future projections based on HPS models, providing implications for the selection of future climate predictors.

Temporospatial distribution and trends of thunderstorm, hail, gale and heavy precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau and associated mechanisms

Temporospatial distribution and trends of thunderstorm, hail, gale and heavy precipitation events over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), as well as the associated mechanisms with observational data from 1979-2016 are investigated, which have not been fully studied under a changing climate. The results indicate that thunderstorm, hail and gale events over the whole TP show significant decreasing trends, while heavy precipitation events have an insignificant increasing trend. The southeast (SE) and central south (SC) subregions have obvious significant decreasing trends in thunderstorm, hail and gale events, while the northeast (NE) subregion has a significant increasing trend in heavy precipitation events. It is found that the atmospheric circulation anomaly caused by the northwestern Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) should be responsible for these changes. A strong wave train triggered by the northwestern Atlantic SST anomaly propagates from the northern Atlantic to East Asia through Europe, and induces a more upper-level warming over the TP and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation near the Lake Baikal, resulting in more stable atmosphere and blocking effect, which forces the mid-latitude westerlies and associated cold air to shift poleward. The weakened cold air advection over the TP decreases the baroclinic instability and convection initiation, and finally causes the significant decreasing trends in severe weather events. On the other hand, the enhanced easterly winds in the southern flank of the anticyclonic circulation can significantly increase the water vapor flux from the eastern boundary of the TP and heavy precipitation events in the NE subregion.

Effects of Whole SST Anomaly in the Tropical Indian Ocean on Summer rainfall Over Central Asia

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on summer rainfall over central Asia (CA) are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis circulation data, Hadley Centre SST data, and GPCC gridded precipitation data for 1971–2016. Results show that the SST anomalies over the whole tropical IO play important roles in modulating summer rainfall over southeast CA via the subtropical westerly jet. When the SSTs in the tropical IO are in positive phases, the south Asian monsoon is weakened, which reduces summer rainfall in the Indian monsoon regions corresponding to less release of latent heat. There is an anomalous anticyclone over the Indian Peninsula and an anomalous cyclone in the upper troposphere over CA, corresponding to a shift of the subtropical westerly jet farther south over CA. The southward shift of westerly jet would be responded to anomalous cyclone at 500 hPa over CA and water vapor transported into CA through two steps from the Arabian Sea, above both contribute to more summer rainfall over CA.

Studi Karakteristik Suhu Permukaan Laut (SPL) Di Perairan Selat Lombok Menggunakan Citra Satelit EOS Aqua MODIS

The Lombok Strait is a strait located between Lombok Island and Bali Island which connects the waters of the Bali Sea to the Indian Ocean, whose SST conditions vary with oceanographic-atmospheric conditions in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. This research aims to determine the temporal and spatial SST in the North and South Lombok Strait. Therefore, this study divides the Lombok Strait area into two because of the influence of the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. The method used in this research is descriptive and statistical analysis. The highest average monthly SST in the northern and southern Lombok Strait occurred in April at 29.11 °C and the lowest in August at 26.82°C. For the average seasonal SST, the highest occurred at transition I of 28.86°C, and the lowest occurred in the eastern season at 27.39°C. The highest average annual SST occurred in 2010 at 28.83°C and the lowest occurred in 2018 at 27.69°C. The northern SST anomaly has the same fluctuation as ENSO with inversely proportional IOD. Southern SST anomaly has fluctuation which is inversely proportional to ENSO and IOD. The correlation between SST anomaly in the north and ENSO correlates 0.90 (very strong), while with IOD it correlates 0.12 (very low). The correlation between SST anomaly in the southern part and ENSO correlates -0.11 (very low), while with IOD it correlates -0.73 (strong)

Curah Hujan, Anomali Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dan Kebakaran Hutan Sabana di Waingapu

Waingapu is one of the areas in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province which often suffered from savanna fires. Savanna fires prevention can be done by utilizing hotspot data for analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS). The climate is one of factors influence the occurrence of savanna fires in Waingapu. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between precipitation, SST anomalies, and the occurrences of savanna fires in Waingapu. This research was conducted on February April 2021 at the Forest and Land Fires Laboratory, Department of Silviculture, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University. The data used are MODIS and VIIRS hotspot data, daily precipitation data and SST 3.4 anomaly data. The results showed that precipitation was inversely related to hotspots with a negative correlation value. SST anomaly is inversely related to precipitation a negative correlation value. While the SST anomaly with hotspots is directly proportional with a positive correlation value. Keywords: climate, hotspot, Geographic Information System (GIS), Waingapu

Role of Low-Frequency Wind Variability in Inducing WWBs during the onset of super El Niños

In this study, the effect of multiple timescale wind fields on the westerly wind bursts (WWBs) was investigated during the onset of super (1982, 1997, and 2015) and moderate El Niño events. The results revealed that extreme WWBs during the onset of the super El Niño group were attributed to low-frequency westerly (≥90 days, LFW), medium-frequency westerly (20–90 days, MFW, or intraseasonal) and high-frequency westerly (≤10 days, HFW) components, accounting for approximately 51%, 33% and 16%, respectively. Thus, the extreme WWBs during the onset of super El Niños were primarily contributed by LFWs and MFWs. By contrast, the WWBs during the onset of moderate El Niños were determined primarily by MFWs (38%) and HFWs (35%), whereas the LFW contribution is relatively small (27%). A further analysis indicated that LFWs during the onset of the super El Niños were primarily a response to a positive SST anomaly in the tropical to eastern North Pacific resembling the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), which had persisted during the preceding 9–12 months in the extratropical eastern North Pacific. A significant lagged correlation between the tropical and extratropical North Pacific SST was identified, and their correlation has become stronger since the late 1980s. MFWs during the onset of the super El Niños were primarily associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation.