scholarly journals The Moderate Impact of the 2015 El Niño over East Africa and Its Representation in Seasonal Reforecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7989-8001 ◽  
Author(s):  
David MacLeod ◽  
Cyril Caminade
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
East African ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, has been linked to intense rainfall over East Africa during the short rains season (October–December). However, we show here that during the extremely strong 2015 El Niño the precipitation anomaly over most of East Africa during the short rains season was less intense than experienced during previous El Niños, linked to less intense easterlies over the Indian Ocean. This moderate impact was not indicated by reforecasts from the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, which instead forecast large probabilities of an extreme wet signal, with stronger easterly anomalies over the surface of the Indian Ocean and a colder eastern Indian Ocean/western Pacific than was observed. To confirm the relationship of the eastern Indian Ocean to East African rainfall in the forecast for 2015, atmospheric relaxation experiments are carried out that constrain the east Indian Ocean lower troposphere to reanalysis. By doing so the strong wet forecast signal is reduced. These results raise the possibility that link between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events is too strong in the ECMWF dynamical seasonal forecast system and that model predictions for the East African short rains rainfall during strong El Niño events may have a bias toward high probabilities of wet conditions.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean impact on ENSO evolution 2014–2016 in a set of seasonal forecasting experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Mayer ◽  
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variations ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the anomalously warm Indian Ocean state on the unprecedentedly weak Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the unexpected evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 2014–2016. It uses 25-month-long coupled twin forecast experiments with modified Indian Ocean initial conditions sampling observed decadal variations. An unperturbed experiment initialized in Feb 2014 forecasts moderately warm ENSO conditions in year 1 and year 2 and an anomalously weak ITF throughout, which acts to keep tropical Pacific ocean heat content (OHC) anomalously high. Changing only the Indian Ocean to cooler 1997 conditions substantially alters the 2-year forecast of Tropical Pacific conditions. Differences include (i) increased probability of strong El Niño in 2014 and La Niña in 2015, (ii) significantly increased ITF transports and (iii), as a consequence, stronger Pacific ocean heat divergence and thus a reduction of Pacific OHC over the two years. The Indian Ocean’s impact in year 1 is via the atmospheric bridge arising from altered Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Effects of altered ITF and associated ocean heat divergence (oceanic tunnel) become apparent by year 2, including modified ENSO probabilities and Tropical Pacific OHC. A mirrored twin experiment starting from unperturbed 1997 conditions and several sensitivity experiments corroborate these findings. This work demonstrates the importance of the Indian Ocean’s decadal variations on ENSO and highlights the previously underappreciated role of the oceanic tunnel. Results also indicate that, given the physical links between year-to-year ENSO variations, 2-year-long forecasts can provide additional guidance for interpretation of forecasted year-1 ENSO probabilities.

scholarly journals Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java

2013 ◽  
Vol 111 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mega L. Syamsuddin ◽  
Sei-Ichi Saitoh ◽  
Toru Hirawake ◽  
Samsul Bachri ◽  
Agung B. Harto
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Bigeye Tuna ◽  
Thunnus Obesus

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño/Southern Oscillation impacts on regional chlorophyll anomalies in the Indian Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 6677-6698 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Currie ◽  
M. Lengaigne ◽  
J. Vialard ◽  
D. M. Kaplan ◽  
O. Aumont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Climate Modes ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are independent climate modes, which frequently co-occur, driving significant interannual changes within the Indian Ocean. We use a four-decade hindcast from a coupled biophysical ocean general circulation model, to disentangle patterns of chlorophyll anomalies driven by these two climate modes. Comparisons with remotely sensed records show that the simulation competently reproduces the chlorophyll seasonal cycle, as well as open-ocean anomalies during the 1997/1998 ENSO and IOD event. Results suggest that anomalous surface and euphotic-layer chlorophyll blooms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in fall, and southern Bay of Bengal in winter, are primarily related to IOD forcing. A negative influence of IOD on chlorophyll concentrations is shown in a region around the southern tip of India in fall. IOD also depresses depth-integrated chlorophyll in the 5–10° S thermocline ridge region, yet the signal is negligible in surface chlorophyll. The only investigated region where ENSO has a greater influence on chlorophyll than does IOD, is in the Somalia upwelling region, where it causes a decrease in fall and winter chlorophyll by reducing local upwelling winds. Yet unlike most other regions examined, the combined explanatory power of IOD and ENSO in predicting depth-integrated chlorophyll anomalies is relatively low in this region, suggestive that other drivers are important there. We show that the chlorophyll impact of climate indices is frequently asymmetric, with a general tendency for larger positive than negative chlorophyll anomalies. Our results suggest that ENSO and IOD cause significant and predictable regional re-organisation of chlorophyll via their influence on near-surface oceanography. Resolving the details of these effects should improve our understanding, and eventually gain predictability, of interannual changes in Indian Ocean productivity, fisheries, ecosystems and carbon budgets.

scholarly journals The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2872-2880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Meyers ◽  
Peter McIntosh ◽  
Lidia Pigot ◽  
Mike Pook
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The Indian Ocean zonal dipole is a mode of variability in sea surface temperature that seriously affects the climate of many nations around the Indian Ocean rim, as well as the global climate system. It has been the subject of increasing research, and sometimes of scientific debate concerning its existence/nonexistence and dependence/independence on/from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, since it was first clearly identified in Nature in 1999. Much of the debate occurred because people did not agree on what years are the El Niño or La Niña years, not to mention the newly defined years of the positive or negative dipole. A method that identifies when the positive or negative extrema of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole occur is proposed, and this method is used to classify each year from 1876 to 1999. The method is statistical in nature, but has a strong basis on the oceanic physical mechanisms that control the variability of the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific basin. Early in the study it was found that some years could not be clearly classified due to strong decadal variation; these years also must be recognized, along with the reason for their ambiguity. The sensitivity of the classification of years is tested by calculating composite maps of the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly and the probability of below median Australian rainfall for different categories of the El Niño–Indian Ocean relationship.

The Influence of Atmospheric Convection on the Interaction between the Indian Ocean and ENSO

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 10155-10178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia E. Wieners ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra ◽  
Will P. M. de Ruijter
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Western Pacific

In recent years it has been proposed that a negative (positive) Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in boreal autumn favors an El Niño (La Niña) at a lead time of 15 months. Observational analysis suggests that a negative IOD might be accompanied by easterly anomalies over the western Pacific. Such easterlies can enhance the western Pacific warm water volume, thus favoring El Niño development from the following boreal spring onward. However, a Gill-model response to a negative IOD forcing would lead to nearly zero winds over the western Pacific. The authors hypothesize that a negative IOD—or even a cool western Indian Ocean alone—leads to low-level air convergence and hence enhanced convectional heating over the Maritime Continent, which in turn amplifies the wind convergence so as to cause easterly winds over the western Pacific. This hypothesis is tested by coupling an idealized Indian Ocean model and a convective feedback model over the Maritime Continent to the Zebiak–Cane model. It is found that, for a sufficiently strong convection feedback, a negative (positive) IOD indeed forces easterlies (westerlies) over the western Pacific. The contribution from the eastern IOD pole dominates. IOD variability is found to destabilize the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, whereas Indian Ocean basinwide warming (IOB) variability dampens ENSO, even in the presence of convection. The influence of the Indian Ocean on the spectral properties of ENSO is dominated by the IOB, while the IOD is a better predictor for individual ENSO events.

MJO propagation over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific in CMIP5 Models: Roles of Background States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Occurrence Frequency ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract This study explored the impacts of background states on the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in 24 CMIP5 models using a precipitation-based MJO tracking method. The ability of the model to reproduce the MJO propagation is reflected in the occurrence frequency of individual MJO events. Moisture budget analysis suggests that the occurrence frequencies of MJO events that propagate across the Indian Ocean (IO-MJO) and western Pacific (WP-MJO) in the models are mainly related to the low-level meridional moisture advection ahead of the MJO convection center. This advection is tightly associated with the background distribution of low-level moisture. Drier biases in background low-level moisture over the entire tropical regions account for underestimated MJO occurrence frequency in the bottom-tier simulations. This study highlights the importance of reproducing the year-to-year background states for the simulations of MJO propagation in the models by further decomposing the background states into the climatology and anomaly components. The background meridional moisture gradient account for the IO-MJO occurrence frequency is closely related to its climatology component, however, the anomaly component regulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also important for the WP-MJO occurrence frequency. The year-to-year variations of background zonal and meridional gradients associated with ENSO account for the IO-MJO occurrence frequency tend to be offset with each other. As a result, the ENSO shows no significant impact on the IO-MJO occurrence frequency. However, the MJO events tend to more likely propagate across the western Pacific during El Niño years.

scholarly journals Regional and Local Impacts of the ENSO and IOD Events of 2015 and 2016 on the Indian Summer Monsoon—A Bhutan Case Study

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 954
Author(s):  
Katherine Power ◽  
Josefine Axelsson ◽  
Norbu Wangdi ◽  
Qiong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
The Indian Ocean

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a vital role in the livelihoods and economy of those living on the Indian subcontinent, including the small, mountainous country of Bhutan. The ISM fluctuates over varying temporal scales and its variability is related to many internal and external factors including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In 2015, a Super El Niño occurred in the tropical Pacific alongside a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean and was followed in 2016 by a simultaneous La Niña and negative IOD. These events had worldwide repercussions. However, it is unclear how the ISM was affected during this time, both at a regional scale over the whole ISM area and at a local scale over Bhutan. First, an evaluation of data products comparing ERA5 reanalysis, TRMM and GPM satellite, and GPCC precipitation products against weather station measurements from Bhutan, indicated that ERA5 reanalysis was suitable to investigate ISM change in these two years. The reanalysis datasets showed that there was disruption to the ISM during this period, with a late onset of the monsoon in 2015, a shifted monsoon flow in July 2015 and in August 2016, and a late withdrawal in 2016. However, this resulted in neither a monsoon surplus nor a deficit across both years but instead large spatial-temporal variability. It is possible to attribute some of the regional scale changes to the ENSO and IOD events, but the expected impact of a simultaneous ENSO and IOD events are not recognizable. It is likely that 2015/16 monsoon disruption was driven by a combination of factors alongside ENSO and the IOD, including varying boundary conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, and more. At a local scale, the intricate topography and orographic processes ongoing within Bhutan further amplified or dampened the already altered ISM.

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