scholarly journals Projected Changes in Daily Variability and Seasonal Cycle of Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Globe during the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 8537-8561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Chen ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Yaocun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases will not only raise Earth’s temperature but may also change its variability and seasonal cycle. Here CMIP5 model data are analyzed to quantify these changes in surface air temperature (Tas) and investigate the underlying processes. The models capture well the mean Tas seasonal cycle and variability and their changes in reanalysis, which shows decreasing Tas seasonal amplitudes and variability over the Arctic and Southern Ocean from 1979 to 2017. Daily Tas variability and seasonal amplitude are projected to decrease in the twenty-first century at high latitudes (except for boreal summer when Tas variability increases) but increase at low latitudes. The day of the maximum or minimum Tas shows large delays over high-latitude oceans, while it changes little at low latitudes. These Tas changes at high latitudes are linked to the polar amplification of warming and sea ice loss, which cause larger warming in winter than summer due to extra heating from the ocean during the cold season. Reduced sea ice cover also decreases its ability to cause Tas variations, contributing to the decreased Tas variability at high latitudes. Over low–midlatitude oceans, larger increases in surface evaporation in winter than summer (due to strong winter winds, strengthened winter winds in the Southern Hemisphere, and increased winter surface humidity gradients over the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes), coupled with strong ocean mixing in winter, lead to smaller surface warming in winter than summer and thus increased seasonal amplitudes there. These changes result in narrower (wider) Tas distributions over the high (low) latitudes, which may have important implications for other related fields.

Assessment of possible changes in air temperature and sea-ice extent in the Arctic Seas in the twenty-first century

2009 ◽  
pp. 113-129
Author(s):  
Ivan E. Frolov ◽  
Zalman M. Gudkovich ◽  
Valery P. Karklin ◽  
Evgeny G. Kovalev ◽  
Vasily M. Smolyanitsky
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Mechanism of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Evolution and Arctic Amplification

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Yul Kim ◽  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
Hanna Na ◽  
Jinju Kim
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract. Sea ice melting is proposed as a primary reason for the Artic amplification, although physical mechanism of the Arctic amplification and its connection with sea ice melting is still in debate. In the present study, monthly ERA-interim reanalysis data are analyzed via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis to understand the seasonal mechanism of sea ice melting in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic amplification. While sea ice melting is widespread over much of the perimeter of the Arctic Ocean in summer, sea ice remains to be thin in winter only in the Barents-Kara Seas. Excessive turbulent heat flux through the sea surface exposed to air due to sea ice melting warms the atmospheric column. Warmer air increases the downward longwave radiation and subsequently surface air temperature, which facilitates sea surface remains to be ice free. A 1 % reduction in sea ice concentration in winter leads to ~ 0.76 W m−2 increase in upward heat flux, ~ 0.07 K increase in 850 hPa air temperature, ~ 0.97 W m−2 increase in downward longwave radiation, and ~ 0.26 K increase in surface air temperature. This positive feedback mechanism is not clearly observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, since sea ice refreezes in late fall (November) before excessive turbulent heat flux is available for warming the atmospheric column in winter. A detailed seasonal heat budget is presented in order to understand specific differences between the Barents-Kara Seas and Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Temperature

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (18) ◽  
pp. 6359-6374 ◽  
Author(s):  
John G. Dwyer ◽  
Michela Biasutti ◽  
Adam H. Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Heat Capacity ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Phase Delay ◽  
First Century ◽  
Effective Heat Capacity ◽  
Effective Heat ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract When forced with increasing greenhouse gases, global climate models project a delay in the phase and a reduction in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, expressed as later minimum and maximum annual temperatures and greater warming in winter than in summer. Most of the global mean changes come from the high latitudes, especially over the ocean. All 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 models agree on these changes and, over the twenty-first century, average a phase delay of 5 days and an amplitude decrease of 5% for the global mean ocean surface temperature. Evidence is provided that the changes are mainly driven by sea ice loss: as sea ice melts during the twenty-first century, the previously unexposed open ocean increases the effective heat capacity of the surface layer, slowing and damping the temperature response. From the tropics to the midlatitudes, changes in phase and amplitude are smaller and less spatially uniform than near the poles but are still prevalent in the models. These regions experience a small phase delay but an amplitude increase of the surface temperature cycle, a combination that is inconsistent with changes to the effective heat capacity of the system. The authors propose that changes in this region are controlled by changes in surface heat fluxes.

scholarly journals Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Surface Air Temperature Variability: An AGCM Study

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 804-815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarith P. P. Mahanama ◽  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Rolf H. Reichle ◽  
Max J. Suarez
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Subsurface Soil

Abstract Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies in the subsurface soil. The subsurface soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory—the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months—and thus subsurface soil temperature may contribute to the low-frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses three long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of subsurface soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations in which the subsurface soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the subsurface soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled; that is, at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of subsurface soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. Finally, a climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed in the third experiment. Together, the three experiments allow the isolation of the contributions of variable SSTs, interactive subsurface soil temperature, and chaotic atmospheric dynamics to meteorological variability. The results show that allowing an interactive subsurface soil temperature does, indeed, significantly increase surface air temperature variability and memory in most regions. In many regions, however, the impact is negligible, particularly during boreal summer.

scholarly journals Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3661-3683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Warren M. Washington ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
System Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Twenty First Century

Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century.

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of enhanced BrO and its relation to meteorological parameters in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (20) ◽  
pp. 12285-12312
Author(s):  
Sora Seo ◽  
Andreas Richter ◽  
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt ◽  
Ilias Bougoudis ◽  
John Philip Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract. Satellite observations have shown large areas of elevated bromine monoxide (BrO) covering several thousand square kilometres over the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions in polar spring. These enhancements of total BrO columns result from increases in stratospheric or tropospheric bromine amounts or both, and their occurrence may be related to local meteorological conditions. In this study, the spatial distribution of the occurrence of total BrO column enhancements and the associated changes in meteorological parameters are investigated in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions using 10 years of Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) measurements and meteorological model data. Statistical analysis of the data presents clear differences in the meteorological conditions between the 10-year mean and episodes of enhanced total BrO columns in both polar sea ice regions. These differences show pronounced spatial patterns. In general, atmospheric low pressure, cold surface air temperature, high surface-level wind speed, and low tropopause heights were found during periods of enhanced total BrO columns. In addition, spatial patterns of prevailing wind directions related to the BrO enhancements are identified in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions. The relevance of the different meteorological parameters on the total BrO column is evaluated based on a Spearman rank correlation analysis, finding that tropopause height and surface air temperature have the largest correlations with the total BrO vertical column density. Our results demonstrate that specific meteorological parameters can have a major impact on the BrO enhancement in some areas, but in general, multiple meteorological parameters interact with each other in their influence on BrO columns.

Current and Projected Sea Ice in the Arctic in the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
pp. 399-463
Author(s):  
Valentin P. Meleshko ◽  
Tatiana Pavlova ◽  
Leonid P. Bobylev ◽  
Pavel Golubkin
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Contrasting the Antarctic and Arctic Atmospheric Responses to Projected Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (16) ◽  
pp. 6353-6370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark England ◽  
Lorenzo Polvani ◽  
Lantao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Models project that Antarctic sea ice area will decline considerably by the end of this century, but the consequences remain largely unexplored. Here, the atmospheric response to future sea ice loss in the Antarctic is investigated, and contrasted to the Arctic case, using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model (WACCM). Time-slice model runs with historic sea ice concentrations are compared to runs with future concentrations, from the late twenty-first century, in each hemisphere separately. As for the Arctic, results indicate that Antarctic sea ice loss will act to shift the tropospheric jet equatorward, an internal negative feedback to the poleward shift associated with increased greenhouse gases. Also, the tropospheric response to Antarctic sea ice loss is found to be somewhat weaker, more vertically confined, and less seasonally varying than in the case of Arctic sea ice loss. The stratospheric response to Antarctic sea ice loss is relatively weak compared to the Arctic case, although it is here demonstrated that the latter is still small relative to internal variability. In contrast to the Arctic case, the response of the ozone layer is found to be positive (up to 5 Dobson units): interestingly, it is present in all seasons except austral spring. Finally, while the response of surface temperature and precipitation is limited to the southern high latitudes, it is nonetheless unable to impact the interior of the Antarctic continent, suggesting a minor role of sea ice loss on recent Antarctic temperature trends.

scholarly journals Changes of Variability in Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part I: Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 5455-5467 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Stouffer ◽  
R. T. Wetherald
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Variance ◽  
General Reduction

Abstract This study documents the temperature variance change in two different versions of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model forced with estimates of future increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations. The variance changes are examined using an ensemble of 8 transient integrations for the older model version and 10 transient integrations for the newer one. Monthly and annual data are used to compute the mean and variance changes. Emphasis is placed upon computing and analyzing the variance changes for the middle of the twenty-first century and compared with those found in a control integration. The large-scale variance of lower-tropospheric temperature (including surface air temperature) generally decreases in high latitudes particularly during fall due to a delayed onset of sea ice as the climate warms. Sea ice acts to insolate the atmosphere from the much larger heat capacity of the ocean. Therefore, the near-surface temperature variance tends to be larger over the sea ice–covered regions, than the nearby ice-free regions. The near-surface temperature variance also decreases during the winter and spring due to a general reduction in the extent of sea ice during winter and spring. Changes in storminess were also examined and were found to have relatively little effect upon the reduction of temperature variance. Generally small changes of surface air temperature variance occurred in low and midlatitudes over both land and oceanic areas year-round. An exception to this was a general reduction of variance in the equatorial Pacific Ocean for the newer model. Small increases in the surface air temperature variance occur in mid- to high latitudes during the summer months, suggesting the possibility of more frequent and longer-lasting heat waves in response to increasing GHGs.

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