scholarly journals Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA2 with rawinsonde data over Europe and North America

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-55
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
Natalia Pilguj ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Victor Gensini ◽  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Lapse Rates

AbstractIn this study we compared 3.7 mln rawinsonde observations from 232 stations over Europe and North America with proximal vertical profiles from ERA5 and MERRA2 to examine how well reanalysis depicts observed convective parameters. Larger differences between soundings and reanalysis are found for thermodynamic theoretical parcel parameters, low-level lapse rates and low-level wind shear. In contrast, reanalysis best represents temperature and moisture variables, mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and mean wind. Both reanalyses underestimate CAPE, low-level moisture and wind shear, particularly when considering extreme values. Overestimation is observed for low-level lapse rates, mid-tropospheric moisture and the level of free convection. Mixed-layer parcels have overall better accuracy when compared to most-unstable, especially considering convective inhibition and lifted condensation level. Mean absolute error for both reanalyses has been steadily decreasing over the last 39 years for almost every analyzed variable. Compared to MERRA2, ERA5 has higher correlations and lower mean absolute errors. MERRA2 is typically drier and less unstable over central Europe and the Balkans, with the opposite pattern over western Russia. Both reanalyses underestimate CAPE and CIN over the Great Plains. Reanalyses are more reliable for lower elevations stations and struggle along boundaries such as coastal zones and mountains. Based on the results from this and prior studies we suggest that ERA5 is likely one of the most reliable available reanalysis for exploration of convective environments, mainly due to its improved resolution. For future studies we also recommend that computation of convective variables should use model levels that provide more accurate sampling of the boundary-layer conditions compared to less numerous pressure levels.

scholarly journals Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8339-8365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funing Li ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Daniel T. Dawson II
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Bias

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

scholarly journals Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (23) ◽  
pp. 10263-10286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Tomáš Púčik ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Lapse Rates

AbstractIn this study we investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe and the United States. For this purpose, National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Arrival Time Difference long-range lightning detection network (ATDnet) data, ERA5 hybrid-sigma levels, and severe weather reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Data were combined on a common grid of 0.25° and 1-h steps over the period 1979–2018. The severity of convective hazards increases with increasing instability and wind shear (WMAXSHEAR), but climatological aspects of these features differ over both domains. Environments over the United States are characterized by higher moisture, CAPE, CIN, wind shear, and midtropospheric lapse rates. Conversely, 0–3-km CAPE and low-level lapse rates are higher over Europe. From the climatological perspective severe thunderstorm environments (hours) are around 3–4 times more frequent over the United States with peaks across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Over Europe severe environments are the most common over the south with local maxima in northern Italy. Despite having lower CAPE (tail distribution of 3000–4000 J kg−1 compared to 6000–8000 J kg−1 over the United States), thunderstorms over Europe have a higher probability for convective initiation given a favorable environment. Conversely, the lowest probability for initiation is observed over the Great Plains, but, once a thunderstorm develops, the probability that it will become severe is much higher compared to Europe. Prime conditions for severe thunderstorms over the United States are between April and June, typically from 1200 to 2200 central standard time (CST), while across Europe favorable environments are observed from June to August, usually between 1400 and 2100 UTC.

scholarly journals The Development of Severe Vortices within Simulated High-Shear, Low-CAPE Convection

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 2189-2216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith D. Sherburn ◽  
Matthew D. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Convective System ◽  
High Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Factor Ii ◽  
Strong Surface ◽  
Perturbation Pressure ◽  
Lapse Rates

Abstract Environments characterized by large values of vertical wind shear and modest convective available potential energy (CAPE) are colloquially referred to as high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments. Convection within these environments represents a considerable operational forecasting challenge. Generally, it has been determined that large low-level wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates—along with synoptic-scale forcing for ascent—are common ingredients supporting severe HSLC convection. This work studies the specific processes that lead to the development of strong surface vortices in HSLC convection, particularly associated with supercells embedded within a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), and how these processes are affected by varying low-level shear vector magnitudes and lapse rates. Analysis of a control simulation, conducted with a base state similar to a typical HSLC severe environment, reveals that the key factors in the development of a strong surface vortex in HSLC embedded supercells are (i) a strong low- to midlevel mesocyclone, and (ii) a subsequent strong low-level updraft that results from the intense, upward-pointing dynamic perturbation pressure gradient acceleration. Through a matrix of high-resolution, idealized simulations, it is determined that sufficient low-level shear vector magnitudes are necessary for the development of low- to midlevel vertical vorticity [factor (i)], while steeper low-level lapse rates provide stronger initial low-level updrafts [factor (ii)]. This work shows why increased low-level lapse rates and low-level shear vector magnitudes are important to HSLC convection on the storm scale, while also revealing similarities between surface vortexgenesis in HSLC embedded supercells and higher-CAPE supercells.

Analysis of the 18 July 2005 Tornadic Supercell over the Lake Geneva Region

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1524-1551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel Peyraud
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Lake Geneva ◽  
Alpine Environment ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Forward Translation ◽  
Eyewitness Reports ◽  
Radar Imagery ◽  
The Town

Abstract On the afternoon of 18 July 2005, a particularly intense supercell thunderstorm struck the Lake Geneva region of Switzerland. The storm initiated just southwest of Lyon, France, and tracked over 300 km toward the northeast before losing its supercell characteristics in the Swiss Alpine foothills around the town of Interlaken. During its 3-h lifespan, the storm’s forward translation averaged 60–80 km h−1. At the height of its severity, this supercell was responsible for hail the size of golf balls, a microburst with measured wind gusts of up to 160 km h−1, and two confirmed tornadoes. Miraculously, nobody was killed nor seriously injured. However, the material losses were considerable, including ravaged vineyards, damage to buildings and vehicles, and sections of forests that were completely destroyed. A postevent analysis was undertaken utilizing radar imagery/algorithms, satellite images, lightning and surface data, eyewitness reports, and a damage survey. This case provides a unique look at a supercell evolving within an Alpine environment and helps confirm prior research concerning certain storm features and signatures that have been observed in North American Great Plains supercells and elsewhere. Concerning tornadogenesis, this paper helps confirm via observations and simulations hypotheses proposed in several previous papers that low-level wind flow modified through channeling by mountains can periodically provide a locally favorable wind shear environment for tornadogenesis. For this particular case, inflow winds that channeled around mountain features appear to have been instrumental in the formation of the second tornado, since important topographical obstacles prevented any significant low-level gradient wind shear from operating on the eastern end of Lake Geneva, where this tornado occurred.

scholarly journals Sounding-Derived Parameters Associated with Convective Hazards in Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1511-1528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
Bartosz Czernecki
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Lapse Rates

Abstract Observed proximity soundings from Europe are used to highlight how well environmental parameters discriminate different kind of severe thunderstorm hazards. In addition, the skill of parameters in predicting lightning and waterspouts is also tested. The research area concentrates on central and western European countries and the years 2009–15. In total, 45 677 soundings are analyzed including 169 associated with extremely severe thunderstorms, 1754 with severe thunderstorms, 8361 with nonsevere thunderstorms, and 35 393 cases with nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) that had no thunderstorms. Results indicate that the occurrence of lightning is mainly a function of CAPE and is more likely when the temperature of the equilibrium level drops below −10°C. The probability for large hail is maximized with high values of boundary layer moisture, steep mid- and low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level. The size of hail is mainly dependent on the deep layer shear (DLS) in a moderate to high CAPE environment. The likelihood of tornadoes increases along with increasing CAPE, DLS, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity. Severe wind events are the most common in high vertical wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates. The probability for waterspouts is maximized in weak vertical wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Wind shear in the 0–3-km layer is the best at distinguishing between severe and extremely severe thunderstorms producing tornadoes and convective wind gusts. A parameter WMAXSHEAR multiplying square root of 2 times CAPE (WMAX) and DLS turned out to be the best in distinguishing between nonsevere and severe thunderstorms, and for assessing the severity of convective phenomena.

Airborne infrared low level wind shear predictor

1984 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. KUHN ◽  
R. KURKOWSKI
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Low Level

scholarly journals Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 567
Author(s):  
Zuohao Cao ◽  
Huaqing Cai ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Environment Change ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Event ◽  
The U.S

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

Understanding the influence of ENSO on the Great Plains low-level jet in CMIP5 models

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 1537-1558 ◽  
Author(s):  
James F. Danco ◽  
Elinor R. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Low Level Jet

scholarly journals An Observational Study of Mesoscale Convective Systems with Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyung Woo Kim ◽  
Dong Kyou Lee
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A heavy rainfall event induced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) occurred over the middle Korean Peninsula from 25 to 27 July 1996. This heavy rainfall caused a large loss of life and property damage as a result of flash floods and landslides. An observational study was conducted using Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from 0930 UTC 26 July to 0303 UTC 27 July 1996. Dominant synoptic features in this case had many similarities to those in previous studies, such as the presence of a quasi-stationary frontal system, a weak upper-level trough, sufficient moisture transportation by a low-level jet from a tropical storm landfall, strong potential and convective instability, and strong vertical wind shear. The thermodynamic characteristics and wind shear presented favorable conditions for a heavy rainfall occurrence. The early convective cells in the MCSs initiated over the coastal area, facilitated by the mesoscale boundaries of the land–sea contrast, rain–no rain regions, saturated–unsaturated soils, and steep horizontal pressure and thermal gradients. Two MCSs passed through the heavy rainfall regions during the investigation period. The first MCS initiated at 1000 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a supercell storm with small amounts of precipitation, the appearance of a mesocyclone with tilting storm, a rear-inflow jet at the midlevel of the storm, and fast forward propagation. The second MCS initiated over the upstream area of the first MCS at 1800 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a multicell storm, such as a broken areal-type squall line, slow or quasi-stationary backward propagation, heavy rainfall in a concentrated area due to the merging of the convective storms, and a stagnated cluster system. These systems merged and stagnated because their movement was blocked by the Taebaek Mountain Range, and they continued to develop because of the vertical wind shear resulting from a low-level easterly inflow.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document