scholarly journals Spectral Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Weather and Climate Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 2979-2995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver T. Schmidt ◽  
Gianmarco Mengaldo ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
Nils P. Wedi

Abstract We apply spectral empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis to educe climate patterns as dominant spatiotemporal modes of variability from reanalysis data. SEOF is a frequency-domain variant of standard empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and computes modes that represent the statistically most relevant and persistent patterns from an eigendecomposition of the estimated cross-spectral density matrix (CSD). The spectral estimation step distinguishes the approach from other frequency-domain EOF methods based on a single realization of the Fourier transform, and results in a number of desirable mathematical properties: at each frequency, SEOF yields a set of orthogonal modes that are optimally ranked in terms of variance in the L2 sense, and that are coherent in both space and time by construction. We discuss the differences between SEOF and other competing approaches, as well as its relation to dynamical modes of stochastically forced, nonnormal linear dynamical systems. The method is applied to ERA-Interim and ERA-20C reanalysis data, demonstrating its ability to identify a number of well-known spatiotemporal coherent meteorological patterns and teleconnections, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (i.e., a range of phenomena reoccurring with average periods ranging from months to many years). In addition to two-dimensional univariate analyses of surface data, we give examples of multivariate and three-dimensional meteorological patterns that illustrate how this technique can systematically identify coherent structures from different sets of data. The MATLAB code used to compute the results presented in this study, including the download scripts for the reanalysis data, is freely available online.

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012030
Author(s):  
H Harsa ◽  
M N Habibie ◽  
A S Praja ◽  
S P Rahayu ◽  
T D Hutapea ◽  
...  

Abstract A daily mean rainfall in a month forecast method is presented in this paper. The method provides spatial forecast over Indonesia and employs ensemble of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence algorithms as its forecast models. Each spatial grid in the forecast output is processed as an individual dataset. Therefore, each location in the forecast output has different stacked ensemble models as well as their model parameter settings. Furthermore, the best ensemble model is chosen for each spatial grid. The input dataset of the model consists of eight climate data (i.e., East and West Dipole Mode Index, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Southern Oscillation Index, and Nino 1.2, 3, 4, 3.4) and monthly rainfall reanalysis data, ranging from January 1982 until December 2019. There are four assessment procedures performed on the models: daily mean rainfall establishment as a response function of climate patterns, and one-up to three-month lead forecast. The results show that, based on their performance, these non-Physical models are considerable to complement the existing forecast models.


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